Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:37 am SE Indy posters... sleet or frz rain? Please chime in. Thanks.

Sleet in Manchester, IN

31 and freezing rain in Jefferson County zindiana

31 and moderate freezing rain in Okeana.

Sleet in white oak

just heard some sleet pinging on the windows in dent/green township.

850 MB frontogenic forcing... wow!

Wonderful reports from everyone this morning. These reports are so key and we try and use short term models as well but on the ground reports are key to the forecast. My concern this morning is the frz/rain portion of the forecast may play out a little longer especially in northern Kentucky and eastern parts of Cincinnati. Let it ride a few more hours but that is one trend that needs to be watched. Temps will take a slow ride downward and probably by noon around 28 at CVG. How roads react by then with the height of the sun is not an easy call but we know once you get past 2 or 3pm the solar imput goes down quickly and the afternoon rush will not be good no matter what precip type is falling.

Things freezing up fast here in Oakbrook. Ice on deck, tables, and trees. Need this to change to sleet fast!

The Euro just doesn't want to sway. Definitely some sleet contamination occurring on this based on 850mb temp data. Nice weenie map though!

...either that or this model is gonna bust every forecast in the area!

Still sleet here although radar disagrees.

The dreaded warm nose at the 800s expected , how long will it linger in the different zones? Ha cha cha cha

Freezing rain with a few pingers mixed in in Madeira. The driveway and car were pretty iced up. Just checked my cameras and weather station in Ripley, OH and it is 32 and it looks like a lights glaze on elevated surfaces.

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:20 am Still sleet here although radar disagrees.

Exactly and that is why reports on the ground are so important. Radars really have a hard time figuring out precip types in this kind of storm.

To put the Euro to the test, it has 2" by 1pm, 5" by 4pm, and 8" by 7pm

Just talked to a friend in Arcanum, Ohio - in Darke county just south of Eric. He's reporting moderate snow with maybe an inch but half of that is probably sleet.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:24 am To put the Euro to the test, it has 2" by 1pm, 5" by 4pm, and 8" by 7pm

I'm looking at it like this... if CVG changes over by 2pm, those higher amounts have a chance. 5pm or later they obviously don't. That's the key to our success down here.

Against expert advice, I decided to go ahead and go in to work this morning. My commute is less than 10 minutes and I can leave as soon as it starts to ice up. Roads here in Boone County are just wet, although my car was covered in a thin glaze of ice. There was virtually no traffic out compared also.

LOL , the EU has met its kryptonite in the form of sleet . Thats pitiful

Until we can shake off the warm air advection at 850 (orange), ice is the word.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:28 am LOL , the EU has met its kryptonite in the form of sleet . Thats pitiful

Agreed!

My wife went into work about an hour ago and said she was about the only car on the road. lol

12z HRRR is much more realistic and more in line (still a bit heavier than me) with my forecast.

Sleet and ice pellets accumulating in Oxtown.

The yard has the look of a heavy frost