Absolute Vorticity

Down to 29 with freezing rain - storm total of 1.61” so far

Good Morning and a beautiful day here in Edgewood. The normal warm nose along the river into Northern Kentucky so its taking an extra hour or two for the frz/rain but its on the doorstep and by 8am most of the 3 counties bordering Ohio should be in the frz/rain and temps near 30. The break between waves was less time than I expected. Just got my coffee and going over everything but looking outside there is that glare you get when icing is starting to take affect and will have a better sense as the sun comes up. Just north of the river frz/rain looks to be a problem already. Okay enough rambling as I need to look at a few items but time to get in storm mode.

Looks like sleet mixing in now

Down to 31 degrees here with freezing rain. Once we drop another degree or two the warm ground won't save you anymore on untreated surfaces.

I can report sleet mixing in here in Maineville.

How much QPF does CVG get as snow? Ratios will have to be factored in to. I am est these totals lol

6Z NAM - 0.33"
6Z GFS - 0.34"
0Z Euro - 0.24" (6Z just started)

You might think that is low but I am factoring in sleet cutting into snow totals. We'd get a foot easy if you didn't have any sleet transition.

EDIT to add 6Z Euro - 0.28"

30.9 at my house and 31.4 at Boone Mesonet. Plenty of ice on the back deck.

This water vapor image shows moisture coming all the way from the Pacific ocean to feed this monster.

4SeaSonS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:59 am 20220341130_GOES16-ABI-mex-09-500x500.jpg

This water vapor image shows moisture coming all the way from the Pacific ocean to feed this monster.

Isn't that a beautiful subtropical jet? Textbook! Plus the Gulf is wide open for business. Take a look... Note the convergent zone right over the OV. Awesome!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:55 am How much QPF does CVG get as snow? Ratios will have to be factored in to. I am est these totals lol

6Z NAM - 0.33"
6Z GFS - 0.34"
0Z Euro - 0.24" (6Z just started)

You might think that is low but I am factoring in sleet cutting into snow totals. We'd get a foot easy if you didn't have any sleet transition.

Was just talking to my friend at Wilmington and we agree that ratios are going to be sh*$ for the most part when it does switch over. They’ll increase toward the very end, though.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:00 am

4SeaSonS wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:59 am 20220341130_GOES16-ABI-mex-09-500x500.jpg

This water vapor image shows moisture coming all the way from the Pacific ocean to feed this monster.

Isn't that a beautiful subtropical jet? Textbook!

Yes, yes and yes! "Ain't she a beauty Clark"!! We got a long way to go!!!

I can hear that north wind blowing too. I hope this ice doesn't last longer then a few hours.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:55 am How much QPF does CVG get as snow? Ratios will have to be factored in to. I am est these totals lol

6Z NAM - 0.33"
6Z GFS - 0.34"
0Z Euro - 0.24" (6Z just started)

You might think that is low but I am factoring in sleet cutting into snow totals. We'd get a foot easy if you didn't have any sleet transition.

Was just talking to my friend at Wilmington and we agree that ratios are going to be sh*$ for the most part when it does switch over. They’ll increase toward the very end, though.

The only reason I tweaked amounts was because of the wave overnight and early tomorrow morning

32 and frz rain now at CVG - 7am obs

Trying to get a hold of the second wave and where the low is trying to form. Somewhere probably in southwest Mississippi is my best guess. The pressures are not dropping much so again the system though loaded with moisture is not gaining strength at the moment. Once it hits the Tn Valley we may see a period where it strengthens for a bit as temp difference will help with this. I will be watching this all day though models really have done well with this and never has been much about the track or enough moisture but thermals upstairs and how quickly do they collapse. Winds will become more of an issue later today and evening and for folks that having icing problems this can become a major concern.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:09 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:55 am How much QPF does CVG get as snow? Ratios will have to be factored in to. I am est these totals lol

6Z NAM - 0.33"
6Z GFS - 0.34"
0Z Euro - 0.24" (6Z just started)

You might think that is low but I am factoring in sleet cutting into snow totals. We'd get a foot easy if you didn't have any sleet transition.

Was just talking to my friend at Wilmington and we agree that ratios are going to be sh*$ for the most part when it does switch over. They’ll increase toward the very end, though.

The only reason I tweaked amounts was because of the wave overnight and early tomorrow morning

That feature has been more persistent now on the modeling so I am confident also in that occurring. Thinking light snow will wind down around midday Friday.

925s are cold enough for sleet and snow, but have to get 850s down. +3 currently at CVG this the frz rain. NW of Cincinnati... you all still seeing frz rain or is it sleeting now? Thanks. Please report precip type in your obs!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:09 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:55 am How much QPF does CVG get as snow? Ratios will have to be factored in to. I am est these totals lol

6Z NAM - 0.33"
6Z GFS - 0.34"
0Z Euro - 0.24" (6Z just started)

You might think that is low but I am factoring in sleet cutting into snow totals. We'd get a foot easy if you didn't have any sleet transition.

Was just talking to my friend at Wilmington and we agree that ratios are going to be sh*$ for the most part when it does switch over. They’ll increase toward the very end, though.

The only reason I tweaked amounts was because of the wave overnight and early tomorrow morning

Great reasoning once again. When I gave out my final of 6.3 at CVG was because of your thoughts. There is no transfer of energy to the east coast and the track of the low does give us some overnight snowfall. The ratios are key in this period and though we know at first very low and probably 8-1 but does that quickly go up to say 15-1 overnight. I believe it will but if we stay more in the 10-1 range then of course totals will be more in the 4 inch range.

Feel pretty confident reaching the low end amounts, highest , not so much

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:09 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:00 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:55 am How much QPF does CVG get as snow? Ratios will have to be factored in to. I am est these totals lol

6Z NAM - 0.33"
6Z GFS - 0.34"
0Z Euro - 0.24" (6Z just started)

You might think that is low but I am factoring in sleet cutting into snow totals. We'd get a foot easy if you didn't have any sleet transition.

Was just talking to my friend at Wilmington and we agree that ratios are going to be sh*$ for the most part when it does switch over. They’ll increase toward the very end, though.

The only reason I tweaked amounts was because of the wave overnight and early tomorrow morning

I like your tweaks as it matches my forecast well. Good agreement on here which is always a plus!

Once this low reaches southeast Kentucky many times you will see a sudden drop in temps and cold quickly invades the area compared to during the day when its just a slow decline. How much moisture is left once the bigger drop in temp happens is key because all layers of the atmosphere should be cold enough for all snow. Great point is that if you miss just say .20 that is a mix compared to all snow and talking 2 inches of snow either way. At the height of the storm later this afternoon and early evening I feel that folks just to our northwest will be getting pounded and I see the NWS has 6-8 inches and can't argue with that but usually in these events you will have a more narrow band that gets hit harder for an hour or two so that is why I went 8-12 though the 12 inch totals will be more localized but exact location hard to pinpoint this far out.

Sleet in West Carrollton. A friend of mine says snow in Huber Heights.

As you can see on the radar this is a sw to ne band of precip that keeps rolling in. That will continue until later this afternoon as the second wave of low pressure approaches and then you may see more of a south to north band of precip. That is when you see some of the heavier amounts. Since this system is not gaining strength you are not seeing the thunderstorms that can form in the south and rob a system of moisture. Sure you can see an isolated storm down there but not the training of storms that rob the moisture from making it here.

I just keep staring at the radar and thinking, come on cold air! Get in here!

All sleet here in Miamisburg and 28.