Absolute Vorticity

Had to edit the thread title for obvious reasons...

Been awhile since I was on but it will be interesting to see how much snow , I plan to be home early from work on Thursday since no one here knows how to drive in the snow

Lol, Les. EU 12z finishes up with the pie to face game . QPF less than a tenth across the board.

Looks doubtful many will be breaking out the shovels with this one... although I would not rule that out yet for SE crew. Many more opportunities to come as the cold pattern IMO looks to stick around thru at least 1/20. Just got unlucky with this one. Great Lakes storm ended up being stronger then originally projected and the next wave for us, just isn't going to be allowed to blow up. That's basically what happened. It was always expected to be a fast mover though. GFS was a little too weak and foreign models way way too strong.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:03 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:48 pm If there is a data transfer problem. Would that mean that data could be bad? 0988E5FC-11B1-47D7-8C31-73F54C4D3B64.png

Probably server issues so the model data would be delayed as a result.

Thanks.

Put a fork in it...wow.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:17 pm Put a fork in it...wow.

For big totals yes. I am going with 1-3" for the area for now unless things turn worse with later model guidance. Probably going to end up less then that for folks around I-70. So might have to say 0-0.5" up that way. Better shot for that 1-3" range S of the river and esp down your way. Oh well, not much you can do. Plenty of time left in the season esp with a colder then avg pattern sticking around.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 2:17 pm Put a fork in it...wow.

For big totals yes. I am going with 1-3" for the area for now unless things turn worse with later model guidance. Probably going to end up less then that for folks around I-70. So might have to say 0-0.5" up that way. Better shot for that 1-3" range S of the river and esp down your way. Oh well, not much you can do. Plenty of time left in the season esp with a colder then avg pattern sticking around.

12Z EPS QPF on the left, 6Z run on the right. Singing a similar tune...

15Z SREF has toned it down to about 3/4" on the mean for CVG.

Good Afternoon and really the gfs swapped with the euro. What a surprise lol. So at the end of day does every model gets a c- for at least seeing a system. So I guess the only thing that changed on this forum is the heaviest snows are somewhat further south. Nobody on here ever bought into the heavier amounts and we knew the precip totals were going to be limited. The one thing we had going was the cold air was in place and getting colder as the storm goes by. Ratios are still going to be high and my guess starting out 12-1 and ending at 15-1 or so. Just an example say we get .15 inches then we are still in the ball park of 1-3 inches. I looked at the models through Friday morning to see how the models are trying to figure out this system and again like Les mentioned part of the problem is the system in the lakes getting stronger. How quickly that system moves out can make a difference on whether we get 1 inch or upwards of 3 inches locally. Will take a more advanced look at the models late on Wednesday and I know Les has been keeping me updated on the models and I am still somewhat not agreeing with them at this point though I believe the GOM will open up quickly and that is why I keep expecting a surge of moisture later Saturday that is in the form of snow before we change over to liquid. I may need to change that if the models are correct.

Yesterday we talked about how folks further north and west would probably be on the low end and most likely just get the lift with the front but enough moisture to get the 1/2 inch of snow towards Indy. How far southeast did the models move today is key with the lower totals but as we know sometimes in these smaller systems models move to much in one direction only to correct itself in future models. Will we need a shovel or a broom will be the next question as it should no doubt be a very fluffy type of snow. Still believe single digits very likely both Friday and Saturday mornings and if somehow we get the higher end on the snow totals 0 is not out of the question.

18Z NAM's trying to make a bit of a come back.

Low is still weak but it's a bit further north and a bit faster with the snowing coming in as well. Just one of those systems that we see many times where we look at it and say, "If only the storm would have organized 6 to 12 hours faster." This is going to be another one of those cases. NAM run at 18Z is a better run versus 12Z FWIW. Sharp northern cut off as expected though... sheesh!

Looks a bit windy tonight.....

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 3:40 pm Looks a bit windy tonight.....


nam-218-all-ohio-gust_swath_mph-1416400.png

Leftover leaves and brown grass will be a flyin'.... Christmas decor too for those who didn't take it down yet.

One good thing is the models won't have the best sampling until the Oz suite , so maybe things trend slightly better in the morning

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:03 pm One good thing is the models won't have the best sampling until the Oz suite , so maybe things trend slightly better in the morning

The best sampling is usually 6 hours after the storm has passed.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:08 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:03 pm One good thing is the models won't have the best sampling until the Oz suite , so maybe things trend slightly better in the morning

The best sampling is usually 6 hours after the storm has passed.

18Z GFS - Swing and a miss.

18Z RGEM - Global Warming at its finest. Go south to get snow. Seriously... the NAO Block is going away and we'll have a +PNA next week on to work with so maybe we'll have a better shot at a more northward tracking system. But not too far north of course.

Whatever we do get will be around for a bit. Pretty cold Friday.

I’m waiting for the Northern shift…

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 4:08 pm
The best sampling is usually 6 hours after the storm has passed.

OMG - that’s a good one right there LOL

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:36 pm I’m waiting for the Northern shift…

Do not look at the 18Z Euro lol