Good Friday everyone! As we know... The South has risen again!
We'll get our turn! The pattern was good for us, but the Great Lakes storm did not allow our storm to come further NW. What can ya do?
Moving on... a warm up and rain this weekend after a cold Friday. Sat, after a cold start, looks great! U30s to perhaps the L40s across the area with sun sunshine esp early. Rain comes in Sat night and into the day on Sunday. I like 0.25 to 0.50" on this one. Some models are going up to 0.75" but models have overdone QPF on some of these last few rain storms so going to hold my call there. We could end as a few flakes Sunday late afternoon once this system pulls out but it's the cold catching up to the moisture routine so we all know how that goes.
Quiet again next week as we start cold then warm up into the 40s again by Wed and Thurs.
So getting into the longer term, Ensembles look wonderful with the overall 500 MB Hemispheric pattern. Seeing nice ridging along the West Coast and into Alaska. ridging near Greenland again and over the top suggesting a -AO and the PV dropping south. Pattern is ripe for a monster snow storm. Again, how this evolves and who gets it remains to be seen. But the next few weeks, with this type of jet stream configuration, we may or may not get whacked, but the pattern is favorable for it to occur. Just need a little luck. A great pattern is all we can ask for and I think we're getting it. We just had a good pattern, just bad luck on the track with this latest system.
Our next system of interest is around Fri or Sat next week... 14-15th. We've got a clipper low diving in from Canada and moisture with the STJ coming up from the Gulf/ They try and meet over us but don't quite make the connection. Lack of cold air too as it's just coming in with the clipper. Looking like a few light rain showers attm with some snow possible as well esp north of Cincy. We'll keep an eye on that one to see if any phasing can occur. Lots of time to watch it. More importantly, that system brings the cold air back into the area. Another arctic boundary drops into the country after that with a wave developing along it. Big Storm Potential looks to be in that 18-22nd window. OP GFS (0Z) shows a Gulf low hooking up with that boundary riding NE with a nice snow storm for us currently Jan 20-21st. 6Z run did not phase and it's a weak system, but cold with a clipper and big storm potential was shown in the la la land range at the end of the run. Canadian is interesting at Day 10 with the Gulf Low organizing and a wave coming out of the Plains. Euro gets things going much much faster and has a phased Cutter system Days 9-10. so lots of solutions out there but all we can watch this far away is the potential and see if things flip our way for a change. We'll know in the next week I think.
