Absolute Vorticity

Darby has winds of 75 and will continue to weaken as it crosses into the Central Pacific and eventually passes S of Hawaii. The follow up wave has a 90% chance in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Estelle has winds of 80 mph this morning moving NW over the open Pacific waters at 13 mph.

Estelle has weakened to a TS with winds of 65. By the weekend, this storm will have dissipated into a remnant low.

Estelle is barely a TS now so our attention turns to the next wave coming off the coast. We now have a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days.

The next wave has an 80% chance of development now in the next 3-5 days.

TD 7E is our next one to get named here shortly.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.s ... t#contents

Tropical Storm Frank Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FRANK REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 104.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

In addition to TS Frank which has winds of 50 mph, we have a new TS called Georgette. She has winds of 50 mph as well.

Frank is a hurricane now with winds of 90 mph. Frank is expected to become a major hurricane, briefly, then weaken as he continues to move NW into cooler waters (eventually). Georgette is still a TS with winds of 50 mph. She is going to remain a weak TS moving WSW and eventually do a loop and weaken completely in the coming days.

Frank is now weakening quickly, down to 80 mph. Georgette is now a TD and it's about all she wrote for that one too.

TD Georgette and TS Frank are the only named storms currently on the planet as of this post. Both are weak and are about done with their life cycles.

A new wave coming off the coast has a 50% chance in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance in the next 5 days for development.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

Tropical Storm Howard Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HOWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 110.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Howard has winds of 50 mph this morning moving WNW at 14. Howard is expected to remain a TS then eventually waken and not bother any land masses.

Howard is now a hurricane with winds of 80 mph! Next wave off the Coast has a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

Howard is back to a TS with winds of 65. Next wave is up to an 80% chance in the next 5 days.

Still looking at an 80% chance with this next wave.

That wave is down to a 70% chance.

Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 112.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ivette Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...BARRING ANY NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, IVETTE SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 114.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

We have 2 waves that have a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

Down to 1 wave now and it's got a 40% chance.

Good morning Les. So far these waves look like they will develop per the models but then they just die off. The GFS is so out there and this happens every summer but 1 day it will so a hurricane east of Florida in the about 15 days then the next day it shows the same storm off the Texas coast. The models really are not much help and we just will need to wait and look at local satellite images to get a better ideal what may happen. MJO nearing phase 1 which is a better phase for tropical development this time of year but that does not mean we will get hit with a ton of storms.