Absolute Vorticity

Showers are forming now over Central KY and a couple in Owen Co. Coverage will continue to increase this afternoon as these move to the north, northwest. Locally heavy downpours are possible with some thunder.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:07 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Oct 07, 2021 2:46 pm In the midst of an October mini heat wave. Double digit above normal temps any time of year is nothing to sneeze at. Starting on the 4th and should last at least another week

Sneeze is the best word to describe the current pattern which is all I do in the past several days. Another 6/10ths of an inch in Greenville. The place has been under a black cloud since I moved their part time lol

My allergies are the same Tim. I can relate to sneezing, watery eyes, blowing your nose, etc etc. The rain and mild temps are not helping making the mold count very high around here. It's ragweed season too. Gonna be a tough week to ten days for sure.

78 here today, same at CVG. Look for a 50 / 50 chance for showers and storms for the rest of today, tonight, and tomorrow. Then we should be dry and very warm with the 80s this weekend and going into next week as well. Only small chances for rain next week. Wouldn't surprise me if this doesn't change that a lot of us stay dry. Still looking at changes coming by next weekend in regards to more seasonal temps that you would expect in Rocktober.

My gauge picked up .60" from pre dawn today.

I suppose technically this period of mild weather wouldn't be called "Indian Summer" since often its known to be dry and fair along with mildness in Oct for that designated term.

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A few scattered storms possible this afternoon otherwise back to summer thru Friday or so.

Picked up 0.11" last night - although a few miles to my west had reports of well over an inch. LOL Nice lightning show around 12:30 or so.

1.25" last night. First real rain in 10 days.

Wow,3-5 inches of rain in parts of Greenville and yes where my other house is located. Flood warnings as you would expect with such a heavy amount in a short period of time. Not quite the 6 inches I had in two hours here in Edgewood in August but still very heavy rain in a short period. I guess that black cloud will travel lol.

Watching the 12Z GFS coming in right now and towards the end of next week, you can see the front headed in our direction (still off to the West) as well as that East Pac tropical system I mentioned yesterday on the S end of the front. Lots of tropical moisture over the Caribbean as well. I'm waiting to see if there are going to be any large scale changes down the road but for now... a couple of small rain chances next week, not much and the warmth is the bigger story until the front passes next weekend and highs in the 60s begin once again by Sunday 10/17 which is more avg for the time of year. Only exception to that would be if the East Pac tropical system can inject some moisture ahead of the front. The current GFS run for the first time is suggesting the idea for a decent amount of rain next Fri due to that, but this far out it's a crap shoot. Plus the tropical wave off of Mexico hasn't even fully developed yet, but it is working on it.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:25 pm Wow,3-5 inches of rain in parts of Greenville and yes where my other house is located. Flood warnings as you would expect with such a heavy amount in a short period of time. Not quite the 6 inches I had in two hours here in Edgewood in August but still very heavy rain in a short period. I guess that black cloud will travel lol.

Tim... you are a precip magnet!!! Hope you haven't wasted it all before winter.

Scattered showers / t-showers have developed to our West moving towards the ENE. A few of you may get a downpour this afternoon. But a lot of you will stay dry,

12Z Euro now agreeing with the GFS with regards to that East Pac tropical system hooking up with our front coming this way towards the end of next week. Interesting...

That little cell is headed right for My Dome in western Boone Co. Another 10 mins and we'll see if The Dome has a crack in it or not today.

Yep.. getting that downpour now. Should be able to get a few hundredths out of it to wet the ground.

EDIT: Probably will get 0.10-0.20" out of it. It's really pouring!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:29 pm Yep.. getting that downpour now. Should be able to get a few hundredths out of it to wet the ground.

EDIT: Probably will get 0.10-0.20" out of it. It's really pouring!

Glad its staying away from my house. Did mow this morning and back to twice a week in October. You got to be kidding.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:37 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:29 pm Yep.. getting that downpour now. Should be able to get a few hundredths out of it to wet the ground.

EDIT: Probably will get 0.10-0.20" out of it. It's really pouring!

Glad its staying away from my house. Did mow this morning and back to twice a week in October. You got to be kidding.

You may get clipped Tim... it'll be close!

I think you're right Tim after the last couple of scans... CVG is getting it and it'll probably stay just to your NW and get Covington and the N part of Kenton co. Like Buttermilk Pike on north on 75 for example.

LOL! Wow, I was way off. That cell even missed N Kenton Co for the most part and is now N of the river on Cincy's West side.

I'm in Bridgetown and haven't seen a drop! Sunshine

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:44 pm 12Z Euro now agreeing with the GFS with regards to that East Pac tropical system hooking up with our front coming this way towards the end of next week. Interesting...

I'm not buying that outcome atm , to many timing issues for that to become reality

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:44 pm 12Z Euro now agreeing with the GFS with regards to that East Pac tropical system hooking up with our front coming this way towards the end of next week. Interesting...

I'm not buying that outcome atm , to many timing issues for that to become reality

I don't yet have an opinion one way or the other either. As you mentioned, it's too far out and you are right. It has to be timed perfectly. I was only mentioning it because if it does happen, we'd get a good soaking next Friday. Otherwise, just a small shower chance which is pretty much the ongoing forecast attm anyway. Just something to keep one eye on in this somewhat boring stretch of weather.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:55 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 5:20 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:44 pm 12Z Euro now agreeing with the GFS with regards to that East Pac tropical system hooking up with our front coming this way towards the end of next week. Interesting...

I'm not buying that outcome atm , to many timing issues for that to become reality

I don't yet have an opinion one way or the other either. As you mentioned, it's too far out and you are right. It has to be timed perfectly. I was only mentioning it because if it does happen, we'd get a good soaking next Friday. Otherwise, just a small shower chance which is pretty much the ongoing forecast attm anyway. Just something to keep one eye on in this somewhat boring stretch of weather.

Good Evening and I agree guys a little to early on this system and again we are starting to see some changes finally but this can take time as well and not sure of exactly how the pattern will play out later next week. I can say if that solution is correct or somewhat correct I can see that happening .

Haven't had measurable precip here since Monday

Not much to discuss on the 18Z GFS this evening. I think the one thing that is gaining better traction is more normal temps coming probably starting on Sunday the 17th. So at least by then it'll feel like mid Rocktober instead of August or early Sept.