Absolute Vorticity

Only thing happening attm is an African wave that has a 20% chance of development. Nothing really worth talking about for at least another week here.

A 50% chance for development thanks to a brand new wave off of Africa emerging:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

The ATL basin is starting to wake up. 3 disturbances to keep an eye on. Each has between a 10-30% chance of development.

Now down to 2 disturbances, one at 30% and the other at 40%.

Lead disturbance approaching the islands has a 60% chance now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Potential TC 6 could become Fred by the end of the day.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... t#contents

It's early - I know, but the GEFS looks potentially interesting for our hood down the road with this one....

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:27 am It's early - I know, but the GEFS looks potentially interesting for our hood down the road with this one....


gfs-ensemble-invest94l-1628553600-8553600.png

As does the OP GFS. Euro is a bit too far to the East with its track. Have not seen EPS.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:48 am As does the OP GFS. Euro is a bit too far to the East with its track. Have not seen EPS.

EPS is east as well....which is prob what will happen.

I would say so also Mike, but let's watch and see where the front stalls out this weekend. The closer to us the better. The further away to the south that it is, the more likely the Euro / EPS are right.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:26 am I would say so also Mike, but let's watch and see where the front stalls out this weekend. The closer to us the better. The further away to the south that it is, the more likely the Euro / EPS are right.

As the tropics get going expect the western part of the USA to finally cool down. Been a dry and hot summer so I am sure they will take the relief that usually happens when the Atlantic Hurricane season gets going in full force.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:26 am I would say so also Mike, but let's watch and see where the front stalls out this weekend. The closer to us the better. The further away to the south that it is, the more likely the Euro / EPS are right.

As the tropics get going expect the western part of the USA to finally cool down. Been a dry and hot summer so I am sure they will take the relief that usually happens when the Atlantic Hurricane season gets going in full force.

Models are showing the Atlantic waking up for sure. The GFS looked pretty active today.

TS Fred is out there now just S of PR with winds of 40 mph moving WNW at 16.

Intensity forecast:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 18.0N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 24.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 27.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Good Morning and of course I am heading back to Greenville on Monday just in time for Fred. Schools start next week and we are spending a week down there. Rain looks very likely and if the track is just right some heavy rain. Good thing is the winds at this time don't look horrible but I have seen them cancel schools and business when the winds get over 30 mph which is strange imo.

Yeah... you should be in a good spot for t-storms and rain from this one, Tim. Agree... be ready! Just hope the tornado aspect isn't too bad with this one.

With Freddie going right over DR and then variousother islands, I expect it to be a TS or an outside chance at a weak 1 when it hits the Fl coast . It slows down considerably as it traverses Fl

Fred is still at 45 as the land interaction begins...

Meanwhile next one behind him in the Eastern ATL now has a 50% chance of development. This thread should be getting busy now for a while as the prime hurricane season for us is now here.

Fred Astaire singin' "Stormy Weather" in the rain / wind!

I was going to post a Fred Flintstone pic if we got a hurricane out of him, but I think the chances of that happening are low.

TD Fred is down to 35 mph between PR and DR moving WNW at 16. Going to be tough for this one to become a cane prior to hitting FL. Will stick with a mod to strong TS.

Eastern ATL wave has a 60% chance in the next 5 days.

TD Fred has winds of 35 moving WNW at 12. The next wave has a 70% chance now. Likely to become Grace next week and take a similar Fred-like track.

Fred Tracks - Still a TD this morning.

PTC7 is now in the Atlantic. Will likely become Grace soon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

Corrected to indicate issuance time of intermediate advisory.

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 49.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical
Storm Watches will likely be required for these areas later today
or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next
week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach
the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands
Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Saturday night or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6
inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday.
This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 14/1200Z 16.2N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.7N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 17.2N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 17.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA
96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 18/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

PTC7 will be upgraded to TD7 at the 5:00PM EDT advisory.

A much further west track than a day or two ago, hopefully thats good news for us. Much like its people , Cuba has decimated Fred with no discernable LLC atm.