Absolute Vorticity

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Seeing the enhanced chances of severe storms mainly to the north of the local area. The month of August is usually a good time for severe storms in the upper midwest and New England compared to us locally.

The severe threat (main severe threat) should be to our North and West associated with the next MCS. Only expecting hit or miss stuff again in our hoods. I like Wed and Fri's chances the best for us.

I am cautiously optimistic about our storm chances the next 24 hours. Currently seeing some convection along I-70 from Indy to Richmond (sounds like a broken record, yes? lol). Not sure about the coverage during the day today as we will have some upper level ridging that should suppress anything widespread, but signs are pointing towards an MCS diving into our area later tonight. MCSs as we have seen are quite unpredictable in modeling so will have to see how it transpires.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:46 am I am cautiously optimistic about our storm chances the next 24 hours. Currently seeing some convection along I-70 from Indy to Richmond (sounds like a broken record, yes? lol). Not sure about the coverage during the day today as we will have some upper level ridging that should suppress anything widespread, but signs are pointing towards an MCS diving into our area later tonight. MCSs as we have seen are quite unpredictable in modeling so will have to see how it transpires.

The last couple of Euro runs painted QPF in that 0.25 to 0.50" range for Wed morning at CVG so there is some model support for the idea. Man, we sure need it here. If you flick a cig but out the window, a grass fire in some places around here would easily start.

Good Morning and though the rainfall yesterday was light it help in getting the lawn some needed moisture. The good thing about yesterday was the day was mostly cloudy so that help keep the moisture in the ground. I agree Les about the models of a mcs and also when you have a ton of moisture in the air the models really get wacky with possible amounts and really they become useless in this type of pattern. Best forecast is there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day with temps anywhere between 85-90 depending on cloud cover. Some folks will get hit hard by rain while others may be unlucky and get very little in rainfall. This weekend look for the front to stall to the south but not that far south of us and good be a big difference in how the air feels between I-70 folks and say I-64 folks.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:20 am Good Morning and though the rainfall yesterday was light it help in getting the lawn some needed moisture. The good thing about yesterday was the day was mostly cloudy so that help keep the moisture in the ground. I agree Les about the models of a mcs and also when you have a ton of moisture in the air the models really get wacky with possible amounts and really they become useless in this type of pattern. Best forecast is there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day with temps anywhere between 85-90 depending on cloud cover. Some folks will get hit hard by rain while others may be unlucky and get very little in rainfall. This weekend look for the front to stall to the south but not that far south of us and good be a big difference in how the air feels between I-70 folks and say I-64 folks.

Good morning Tim and I like your last sentence in your post. Totally agree with this and that front and the tropics are going to team up next week. Currently seeing a model battle developing with the Euro taking what's left of "Fred" (Currently PTC 6 over the Islands in the Eastern ATL), and tracking it into FL and a swing and a miss East of us. GFS is further West and brings the low over us so some beneficial rain around the middle of next week if correct. Something to watch in the coming days to see how the timing of that front and the tropics play out.

Rumble of thunder and a ground wetter here. Sun back out now! LOL Looks like some decent storms moving into the metro now. Good luck!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:03 am Rumble of thunder and a ground wetter here. Sun back out now! LOL Looks like some decent storms moving into the metro now. Good luck!

Looks like a couple of lines trying to get going. I still have an uneasy feeling though. Partly sunny currently here.

Got a bad feeling that heavy stuff, as usual, is going to slide off to my NW. Watch and see...

EDIT: Darkening skies / thunder...

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/08/10/goode- ... -blog-810/

Big cell coming for Downtown... naturally all noise here and that's it.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Northern Campbell County in northern Kentucky...
Northern Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 900 AM EDT.

* At 839 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mack, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Norwood, Erlanger, Fort Thomas, Newport,
Sharonville, Blue Ash, Loveland, Reading, Montgomery, North College
Hill, Madeira, Edgewood, Wyoming, Cheviot, Fort Mitchell, Villa
Hills, Highland Heights and Taylor Mill.

Not much here as excepted, just a lot of noise and some light rain. Can I beat that pathetic 0.04" from yesterday? Sure hope so.

S. Hamilton Co is cashing in nicely. Reports please from those on the wet side of the river?

Mod rain now... heaviest for me since 7/17. Finally... much needed! I am grateful, even though it won't last long.

Decent shelf cloud approaching Indian hill

CVG now reporting a t-storm and 76 degrees.

Heavy rain now... dang! Love it!

That cell, (which originally looked to miss me) took a brief right turn... moved more East then North, which allowed The Dome to break. Perfect... I'll finally have to mow now and that's ok. Rain is starting to wind down now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:07 am Heavy rain now... dang! Love it!

Awesome bro! Glad to hear it! 24 day dry spell over finally!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:07 am Heavy rain now... dang! Love it!

Awesome bro! Glad to hear it! 24 day dry spell over finally!

Thank you Bro! Yes... it was tough. Had to break out the sprinkler once or twice to try and save some of the yard. Needed this big time!

Not much here on east side with light rain but a few spots along river some nice garden variety t-showers .

CVG picked up 0.35". Boone Co KY mesonet site: 0.42" My Hood: 0.39" Very pleased!

Everything now is pretty much impacting NKY counties S of the Metro area. Everyone else for the most part is now quiet.