Absolute Vorticity

My Dad put away the snowblower in the shed earlier today. Maybe a bit more snow for March before Spring locks in, but I'm not expecting anything at least of snowblower clearing criteria due to climo and sun angle i.e. etc.

Currently 39 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:57 pm My Dad put away the snowblower in the shed earlier today. Maybe a bit more snow for March before Spring locks in, but I'm not expecting anything at least of snowblower clearing criteria due to climo and sun angle i.e. etc.

Currently 39 here in G'ville.

It's like washing your car, then it rains. Putting the snow blower away will make it snow. :grin:

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:02 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:57 pm My Dad put away the snowblower in the shed earlier today. Maybe a bit more snow for March before Spring locks in, but I'm not expecting anything at least of snowblower clearing criteria due to climo and sun angle i.e. etc.

Currently 39 here in G'ville.

It's like washing your car, then it rains. Putting the snow blower away will make it snow. :grin:

I'll pray that if there's another big or medium dog sized snowstorm that it'll be a south of I-70 Tri-state event, Bro! :grin:

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:07 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:02 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:57 pm My Dad put away the snowblower in the shed earlier today. Maybe a bit more snow for March before Spring locks in, but I'm not expecting anything at least of snowblower clearing criteria due to climo and sun angle i.e. etc.

Currently 39 here in G'ville.

It's like washing your car, then it rains. Putting the snow blower away will make it snow. :grin:

I'll pray that if there's another big or medium dog sized snowstorm that it'll be a south of I-70 Tri-state event, Bro! :grin:

Thanks Bro! I will gladly accept.

12Z EPS Mean still looks interesting as we approach St. Patty's Day for wintry mischief.

Winter aint done yet.....check out this one snow weenie! LOL

Euro also has a snow signal for around the 18th.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:46 pm Euro also has a snow signal for around the 18th.

18Z GFS and 18Z GEFS do as well. :grin:

Good evening folks! From quiet weather, to warmer and wet weather, to colder air and maybe some snow in the long range? Hope everyone enjoys the first weather video that I have created on our new forum! A new headset also so I hope everyone can hear me. You may need to turn your volume up a bit. In the future, I'll try and figure out how to increase the mic volume LOL Anyway, enjoy! :grin:

27 here this morning and at CVG. 45 to 50 this weekend and we're off into the 60s next week. Mon - Wed looking nice before rain moves in by Wed night and Thurs. Probably Friday as well. Again, does the front take more time to come in for warmer temps then the 60s? I am watching the timing on that. Then it's all about the colder pattern coming in and possible wintry weather for the following week, esp around St. Patrick's Day and beyond for that matter. Enjoy the quiet weather folks because things will be warming up and getting active then cooling down and remaining active.

0Z EPS Snowfall Mean at a 10:1 Ratio thru the evening of March 20th.

Good Morning Les and I will listen to your video later. I believe you have the forecast covered and one fact you have been talking about is the mjo and how it may go into phases 8-2. If this happens as forecast then we will have some colder temps later in the month and yes must talk about snow. We know snow will not last long this time of year but I would like to see one more before we call it quits on this winter. Btw hitting the links on Tuesday and should be fun and just to get outside is why I love the game though I am terrible.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:01 am Good Morning Les and I will listen to your video later. I believe you have the forecast covered and one fact you have been talking about is the mjo and how it may go into phases 8-2. If this happens as forecast then we will have some colder temps later in the month and yes must talk about snow. We know snow will not last long this time of year but I would like to see one more before we call it quits on this winter. Btw hitting the links on Tuesday and should be fun and just to get outside is why I love the game though I am terrible.

Good morning Tim! Hope you're having a nice weekend and yes... Tuesday should be wonderful for Golf. Thinking mid 60s attm for the high. Mon - Wed should be nice before we get wet and things slowly go downhill.

In terms of wintry prospects, we always need luck in March no matter what the year is, but the pattern to me looks favorable for some light snow to be possible. If not here, it'll be close by. There should be 1 or 2 significant winter storms to track for someone in the Eastern US from the St. Patty's Day period thru around the 22nd or so. It's definitely an M JO induced pattern in my mind. It's been shown for a week now to go into the colder phases. Ensembles spotted it first several days ago with the operational models showing hints at it every now and again also.

Did anyone see this odd cloud yesterday? People in Hamilton are talking about it. I copied some of their pictures to share. Many people saw it. Anyone know what it was or how it formed?

Never saw anything like that down here in NKY. Any airports or power plants that are close by? Maybe some kind of a temp inversion occurred as the sun was setting? Could be a number of reasons. Those look like high thin cirrus clouds to me.

Found this pretty cool link folks. It shows where spring has sprung already across the Southern US with regards to spring leaf out and such. It also shows if it's on line, early, or late based on climo.

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring?fbcl ... ZclL1uSCe8

12Z GFS is coming in slower holding the rain off for a while now. I think we could clip 70 by either Wed or Thurs. Rain comes in for Fri into next weekend with colder air after that. Something wintry is trying to show up on the 16th.

12Z Euro has a few showers on Thurs but the better rain chances are Thurs night and Fri.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:51 pm Good evening folks! From quiet weather, to warmer and wet weather, to colder air and maybe some snow in the long range? Hope everyone enjoys the first weather video that I have created on our new forum! A new headset also so I hope everyone can hear me. You may need to turn your volume up a bit. In the future, I'll try and figure out how to increase the mic volume LOL Anyway, enjoy! :grin:

Awesome video Les!!

18Z GFS this evening is slowing the front down and keeping us dry until late Thurs. night and Fri morning. Thinking Wed or Thurs may have a chance at getting to 70 with the front slowing down. Sat also looking wet the way the timing is working out right now with the front slowly moving thru. GFS then shows a secondary system so Sunday looks warm now with the next front coming in Sun night. Cooler weather of course is still on tap for the following week behind this system.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:20 pm Awesome video Les!!

Thanks Mike! :grin:

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:26 pm 18Z GFS this evening is slowing the front down and keeping us dry until late Thurs. night and Fri morning. Thinking Wed or Thurs may have a chance at getting to 70 with the front slowing down. Sat also looking wet the way the timing is working out right now with the front slowly moving thru. GFS then shows a secondary system so Sunday looks warm now with the next front coming in Sun night. Cooler weather of course is still on tap for the following week behind this system.

I've been leaning to a slower frontal passage from the beginning. Still this early that can change. The differences in the EU and GFS are huge for this time period and impactful. GFS going bonkers with widespread flooding rains for the region

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:21 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:26 pm 18Z GFS this evening is slowing the front down and keeping us dry until late Thurs. night and Fri morning. Thinking Wed or Thurs may have a chance at getting to 70 with the front slowing down. Sat also looking wet the way the timing is working out right now with the front slowly moving thru. GFS then shows a secondary system so Sunday looks warm now with the next front coming in Sun night. Cooler weather of course is still on tap for the following week behind this system.

I've been leaning to a slower frontal passage from the beginning. Still this early that can change. The differences in the EU and GFS are huge for this time period and impactful. GFS going bonkers with widespread flooding rains for the region

The GFS solution might keep us dry until next weekend and rain chances linger into early next week. Quite a fight showing up between winter and spring. The GFS also delays the arrival of the colder air so instead of watching St Patty's Day, it would be delayed until after the 20th at some point as far as the colder air and snow chances are concerned. Like you said, the Euro blows the front thru on Friday and then we get colder. I think the GFS is going to end up correct as well. It is typical for things to be slower like that in the spring time and that SE Ridge eventually will get flattened enough for the cold to come in but it's not going to give up without a fight. So basically, you and I are on the same page lol This slower idea should increase the chances of hitting 70 for at least 1 day, possibly 2 towards the end of next week.

A glorious Sunday though in progress folks as well as a good chunk of next week. Going to fry some chicken outside today and fire up the grill for some steaks tomorrow with this wonderful weather pattern we are in. Probably will start to see more of these on the roads too.

12Z GFS brings in 2-3" of rainfall beginning on Friday. Lighter on Sat then another big hit Sat night and Sunday especially in the morning.