Absolute Vorticity

Bo / Bgoney: Thank you both! Much appreciated fellas!

12z NAM showing about a quarter to half inch of rain between now and 8pm Saturday (mainly late THU/THU night). 3km NAM has a few heavier pockets up to 0.75" locally.

12z GFS has a bit less for later THU/THU night timeframe, then still showing the soaker unfortunately for Mother's Day. At this point looks like a widespread 1-2" event with locally more.

Later in the week - per GFS, lows in the 30s showing as possible for MON, TUE and WED morning as this total crap pattern continues, and then rinse and repeat for THU/THU night with another system.

I so want to get my beans and tomatoes in... UGH! The GFS for Mother's Day would be have been nice back in late Feb or early March to cap off our nice winter.

We look to have some showers and storms Thurs night as our next decent threat for rain, then it's Mother's Day basically for a heavy rain potential. I think next week also looks active. I see this going thru at least mid month.

Most models have 0.10-0.20" Thurs night and an inch or better for Mothers Day. Euro coming in now with the Mother's Day soaker solution.

0.50 to 1.5" is a good early call for Mother's Day for rainfall totals. Someone could get 2" if everything breaks right.

Happy Birthday Les! Nice to see the sun for your birthday....sounds like it's going to be in short supply in the near future!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 2:05 pm I so want to get my beans and tomatoes in... UGH! The GFS for Mother's Day would be have been nice back in late Feb or early March to cap off our nice winter.

Yea, I hear you but constant 40s for lows and cold soil temps would make tomatoes and pepper plants go backwards and possibly never fully recover the rest of the growing season.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 3:29 pm Happy Birthday Les! Nice to see the sun for your birthday....sounds like it's going to be in short supply in the near future!

No doubt! Thanks very much, Leslie!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 3:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 2:05 pm I so want to get my beans and tomatoes in... UGH! The GFS for Mother's Day would be have been nice back in late Feb or early March to cap off our nice winter.

Yea, I hear you but constant 40s for lows and cold soil temps would make tomatoes and pepper plants go backwards and possibly never fully recover the rest of the growing season.

I am waiting... I just am not happy about it lol

Happy Bday Les, enjoy the rest of your day!

So with this cool and wet weather continuing for a while, I wonder if it will delay the onslaught of the cicadas till the end of May?

HAPPYO 45TH BIRTHDAYA LESTERO!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!!

Also, Happy Cinco de Mayo, Bro!

Currently 55 here in Greenville.

Thanks Joe and Eric! Grilling now and got the cold beer flowing! Not a bad evening with the sun out.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 12:50 pm Later in the week - per GFS, lows in the 30s showing as possible for MON, TUE and WED morning as this total crap pattern continues, and then rinse and repeat for THU/THU night with another system.

I’m absolutely infuriated with this pattern. Shocker.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:02 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 12:50 pm Later in the week - per GFS, lows in the 30s showing as possible for MON, TUE and WED morning as this total crap pattern continues, and then rinse and repeat for THU/THU night with another system.

I’m absolutely infuriated with this pattern. Shocker.

Trev, hopefully by the 20th, 21st, or 22nd a temp pattern flip for the better, Bro!

Chance of Showers-t-showers anytime after 4pm today through midnight. Another chance tomorrow afternoon. With the cold air aloft isolated small hail in the heavier showers are possible. Sunday wet, cold and dreary

The best looking day is Saturday. Any rain there looks to hold off until well after dark, if not even more towards the wee hours of Sunday so any outdoor plans, I would do 'em then. Going to try and mow after work today if I can beat the rain. If not, it'll wait until Sat. Just the way it goes. Plan on firing up the smoker on Sat too with a rack of ribs and some fillet mignon to celebrate my Birthday with the family!

For Mother's Day, watch a movie with Mom. Rain with 1-2" easy by midday Monday when everything finally wraps up.

No frost here, but did have an overnight low of 37. It was close!

Good Morning and the rainy pattern will continue for at least another week. Saturday like Les mentioned looks like the best day to get outdoor work done. Sunday is very interesting and there could be a wide range of conditions in the Ohio Valley. Strong warm front and if you are south of this severe weather is possible but temps can get into the mid-upper 70's. Stay north of the front all day and temps will have a hard time reaching 50 in some areas with a steady rain. Saying that I believe near Cincy will start out cool with rain developing very early in the day and could get 1/2 inch or so before the warm front gets to us. I expect the warm front to get north of the local area and this is when the rain would ease and temps head higher quickly. Folks near I-70 have a better shot of staying cool and rainier much of the day. If you do stay north of the front over 1 inch is very likely. If you are south of the front 1/2 inch still looks good but the afternoon will be more hit and miss thunderstorms so not area wide rainfall over an inch but if you get hit with a thunderstorm those totals can add up quickly

Low was 38 here.

Just looked at some of the nws local forecasts. I may be on another island by myself but I see the warm front getting north of the local area. Again folks towards I-70 yes a steady rain and cool all day but here in Cincinnati and southward I expect cool and rain early but if you get south of that warm front temps will rise faster than the nws shows I believe. These are tricky forecasts and bust potential is huge because 25 miles can make a big difference in how the day plays out. Would love to see 1-2 inches and yes if you stay north of this front those totals can exceed 2 inches.

Great post Tim! the location of the warn front is key to where the heaviest totals fall as you mentioned. Some models have trended a little more to the north so we'll see if that continues today or not. If it does, your call will be spot on.