February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

UKIE only goes out to 168 hours so here you go... I wish it went out further. It is cooking up a nice one!

Crazy Uncle.png

[tron777]

The German Icon model phases it too late.

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[tron777]

Some very nice 18Z GEFS Members coming in also for next week. As I like to say, keep that one eye open. Might even have to start to crack open the other one.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and I see many forecasters are still looking at the frz/rain later Wednesday. I may be dead wrong but locally I am not seeing many problems and hope that is correct because ice is such a pain. Towards I-70 and especially towards Columbus I believe a longer duration is possible but even there the warm air should take over. The next system later Friday and Saturday is much of the same and this time because the starting period may be in the wee hours of the morning I give us a little better shot of some frz/rain. Again not a long period by any means but I believe because of the timing chances or a tad higher.

Then next week and again models are going back and forth and that is expected but imo the chances for a major storm east of the Mississippi are rather high. Exact placement TBD but the energy for this possible system looks good this far out plus getting much colder air involved both on the front end and back end of a possible storm. Way too early for any kind of prediction and that may not be known until the weekend at the earliest . I do like the pattern for next week. I do believe climate wise system is likely a little further north than models are showing at times and one that misses us completely looks low. Stay tune as they say in the business

[tron777]

Nice post Tim! You've summed it up nicely! Upper 30s now as we drop below freezing by morning and stay in the 30s all day tomorrow. Temps will rise tomorrow night and a wet but balmy Thurs. You can say the same for Sat. I am feeling good until next week confidence wise.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 60, DAY 49 and CMH 50 today.

[tron777]

Well folks... we'll see what happens after 3pm maybe 4pm today as far as any frz rain is concerned. I still think it will be N of Cincy and the boys have an advisory out as a result. I will have more to come later this morning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
316 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060>064-070>074-051630-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0006.250205T2200Z-250206T0700Z/
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette-
Pickaway-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Including the cities of Xenia, West College Corner, Circleville,
Kettering, Landen, Hamilton, Oxford, Connersville, Eaton,
Lebanon, Franklin, Middletown, Camden, Downtown Dayton,
Blanchester, Beavercreek, Mason, Fairfield, Logan, Springboro,
Brookville, Wilmington, Richmond, Washington Court House,
Liberty, Fairborn, and Chillicothe
316 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2
AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations up to one
tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana and
central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Wednesday evening commute.

[tron777]

NAM and RGEM have sone frz rain esp North / NE of Cincinnati then rain. HRRR is mainly rain for most folks. I think the call is looking good that we have on the form. I know the boys have the advisory out and I think that is a good call esp for I-70 on north locations. The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry conditions will start out the near term. A system will
approach from the southwest today. On the leading edge of the
precipitation there will be the potential for sleet given the
temperature profiles. Locations south of the Ohio River will
generally be warm enough that most of the precipitation is
expected to be rain. The further north you go the higher the
likelihood there will be of freezing rain with far northern
location of the forecast area not expected to go above freezing
at all during the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Issued a winter weather advisory across the northern half or so
of the forecast area. Except for the leading edge with sleet,
expect the main winter precipitation type to be freezing rain.

Went with two tiers to account for timing and amount differences.
The southern tier is expected to have less ice accumulation and
will transition over to rain earlier. Temperatures will rise
Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect the region to be above
freezing everywhere by daybreak Thursday and some of the
southern portions of the region to reach into the middle to
upper 50s by Thursday morning. As the temperatures rise tonight,
there will be the potential for some thunderstorms across
southern portions and then eastern portions of the area. Cannot
rule out some isolated flooding concerns, however widespread
flooding concerns are not present at this time.

[tron777]

What a headache going into next week. 6Z GFS has three different areas of light to mod snow impacting us on Monday, Tues, and Wed of next week. Monday is the heaviest of the three but sheesh.... These operational models still have zero clue how next week will unfold. That is of course to be expected with two systems in front of it that have yet to move thru. We have to see where the baroclinic boundary sets up first and then, how strong each system is, degree of phasing etc to help us determine track and QPF amounts. Get your thinking toques on by this weekend!

0Z Euro AI has a nice snow storm Mon night into Tues, then a second batch of light snow Wed night into Thurs of next week. The Ensembles... 6Z GEFS has back to back snow storms next week, looks very nice while the EPS tracks a low thru IN, well NW of most of the guidance.

Lots of options still on the table for next week!

[Bgoney]

Next week still looks like more traditional storm systems for our area than what we had a month ago . Won’t have the cold entrenched in our area for the days before, and a precip shield moving SW to NE . Models keep flashing mixing issues for parts of AVland, while others possibly remain all snow . Fun week ahead!!!

[Trevor]

Hope to cash in next week because after that conditions will turn warmer. Let’s reel one in!

[tron777]

Hope to cash in next week because after that conditions will turn warmer. Let’s reel one in!

I'm not entirely sold on that yet Trev. I am watching the MJO to see how things look as well as the orientation and shape of the PV. If it's just a stretching event, then yes... we will turn warm again after next week. I am in agreement with that. But, if we can manage a true splitting of the PV and get that ridge bridge up top to lock it in place (trap it underneath the block) then we will remain colder, longer. There is too much uncertainty yet in my mind to make that call.

Speaking of the MJO, it is trucking right along. Should be in Phase 6 by now per the Aussies which is a very mild phase. GEFS gets us into Phase 7 by mid Feb (which isn't great, but it isn't horrible either) and the Euro has us in Phase 8 which would be wonderful. We'll see how it goes. A 50 / 50 chance in my mind on this.

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

Ground temps are anywhere from Mid 30s nearI70 to upper 30s around cvgland.

[tron777]

32 now at CVG, we'll see how temps look this afternoon when the precip begins to move in. I think the forecast that we have on here looks good at the moment.

[Trevor]

Hope to cash in next week because after that conditions will turn warmer. Let’s reel one in!

I'm not entirely sold on that yet Trev. I am watching the MJO to see how things look as well as the orientation and shape of the PV. If it's just a stretching event, then yes... we will turn warm again after next week. I am in agreement with that. But, if we can manage a true splitting of the PV and get that ridge bridge up top to lock it in place (trap it underneath the block) then we will remain colder, longer. There is too much uncertainty yet in my mind to make that call.

Speaking of the MJO, it is trucking right along. Should be in Phase 6 by now per the Aussies which is a very mild phase. GEFS gets us into Phase 7 by mid Feb (which isn't great, but it isn't horrible either) and the Euro has us in Phase 8 which would be wonderful. We'll see how it goes. A 50 / 50 chance in my mind on this.

I think any guidance showing a true split is overdone. The NAO trending positive after the upcoming dip will not help either. Getting sustained cold in February gets more and more difficult as the month goes on. I think the cold maxes out next week then moderation and typical yo-yo as we future transition toward spring. We shall see of course but I’m not buying any big time cold settling in.

[tron777]

Hope to cash in next week because after that conditions will turn warmer. Let’s reel one in!

I'm not entirely sold on that yet Trev. I am watching the MJO to see how things look as well as the orientation and shape of the PV. If it's just a stretching event, then yes... we will turn warm again after next week. I am in agreement with that. But, if we can manage a true splitting of the PV and get that ridge bridge up top to lock it in place (trap it underneath the block) then we will remain colder, longer. There is too much uncertainty yet in my mind to make that call.

Speaking of the MJO, it is trucking right along. Should be in Phase 6 by now per the Aussies which is a very mild phase. GEFS gets us into Phase 7 by mid Feb (which isn't great, but it isn't horrible either) and the Euro has us in Phase 8 which would be wonderful. We'll see how it goes. A 50 / 50 chance in my mind on this.

I think any guidance showing a true split is overdone. The NAO trending positive after the upcoming dip will not help either. Getting sustained cold in February gets more and more difficult as the month goes on. I think the cold maxes out next week then moderation and typical yo-yo as we future transition toward spring. We shall see of course but I’m not buying any big time cold settling in.

Let me clarify.... I never expected big time cold either, just talking air cold enough for snow. The big time cold pattern we had for January won't be coming back.

[tron777]

6Z Euro AI is a wonderful run for next week. No idea if it'll be right or wrong, just posting what the model shows. It has snow moving into the region Mon night ending Tues afternoon. Then another lighter round Wed night into Thurs, followed by another light event by the end of the week.

6Z Euro (regular op run) shows snow moving in Mon afternoon and continuing Mon night. The off hour run stops at 144 hours.

[tpweather]

Good morning and some great posts this morning. Concerning later today and I believe we have it covered on this forum and no reason to change. Then the Saturday system looks similar and will just watch the timing when precip arrives. Still mainly a rain event. Next week and models are still going back and forth but I agree with Bgoney this is a week where the cold will try and advance much further south and when that happens in mid-Feb normally we get stormy. The one concern is the NAO and it still shows a positive sign next week but not as strong. Would love to see that head more towards the neutral or even negative side. The AO which had such the switch from positive to negative means something is going on with the atmosphere and my only thoughts is the Polar Vortex. I am with Les that no we don't see the kind of weather we saw in early January but I still believe a stormier pattern which really is starting today and should last a good 10-14 days. Does this mean snow and maybe and the PNA is still expected to be slightly positive and that helps in keeping the southeast getting out of hand. So the system next week will probably be in the overriding events like the one today and its how deep does the cold go and do we end up with more ice than snow or does the cold slow its process and we mainly get rain. So next weekend will start to look at this more closely as we hit the weekend.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim.... we should have a better handle on the first system by this weekend for sure. Hopefully we'll get a thread going by Friday or Saturday. I've been excited for next week for quite a while now. just hope it's not all for nothing.

[tpweather]

Good morning Tim.... we should have a better handle on the first system by this weekend for sure. Hopefully we'll get a thread going by Friday or Saturday. I've been excited for next week for quite a while now. just hope it's not all for nothing.

Good Morning Les and I agree that next week does have the looks of stormy period that features better chances of winter precip for us locally. Mid-Feb and this is normally when the GOM really starts to wake up as we head towards spring so getting moisture should be no problem.

BTW the nam continues to show frz/rain for the local area later today. Will watch the temps today but I still believe surface temps will help keep us from getting much in the way of ice. Say we get to 36 or so and when precip starts yes you may lose a few degrees but even then we are above 32. Again northeast especially I-70 near Columbus imo has the best shot of several hours where the frz/rain could cause problems. I hate ice so much and maybe that is why I keep saying we are going to be fine lol.

[Trevor]

Hope to cash in next week because after that conditions will turn warmer. Let’s reel one in!

I'm not entirely sold on that yet Trev. I am watching the MJO to see how things look as well as the orientation and shape of the PV. If it's just a stretching event, then yes... we will turn warm again after next week. I am in agreement with that. But, if we can manage a true splitting of the PV and get that ridge bridge up top to lock it in place (trap it underneath the block) then we will remain colder, longer. There is too much uncertainty yet in my mind to make that call.

Speaking of the MJO, it is trucking right along. Should be in Phase 6 by now per the Aussies which is a very mild phase. GEFS gets us into Phase 7 by mid Feb (which isn't great, but it isn't horrible either) and the Euro has us in Phase 8 which would be wonderful. We'll see how it goes. A 50 / 50 chance in my mind on this.

I think any guidance showing a true split is overdone. The NAO trending positive after the upcoming dip will not help either. Getting sustained cold in February gets more and more difficult as the month goes on. I think the cold maxes out next week then moderation and typical yo-yo as we future transition toward spring. We shall see of course but I’m not buying any big time cold settling in.

Next week definitely has the snow/ice look to it. Favorable for sure. Beyond that the colder periods become much shorter imo lasting only a couple to few days at a time. So it’ll be harder to score after next week. Still possible, just harder. Next week will definitely be the most favorable we will have until next winter.

[Trevor]

Good morning and some great posts this morning. Concerning later today and I believe we have it covered on this forum and no reason to change. Then the Saturday system looks similar and will just watch the timing when precip arrives. Still mainly a rain event. Next week and models are still going back and forth but I agree with Bgoney this is a week where the cold will try and advance much further south and when that happens in mid-Feb normally we get stormy. The one concern is the NAO and it still shows a positive sign next week but not as strong. Would love to see that head more towards the neutral or even negative side. The AO which had such the switch from positive to negative means something is going on with the atmosphere and my only thoughts is the Polar Vortex. I am with Les that no we don't see the kind of weather we saw in early January but I still believe a stormier pattern which really is starting today and should last a good 10-14 days. Does this mean snow and maybe and the PNA is still expected to be slightly positive and that helps in keeping the southeast getting out of hand. So the system next week will probably be in the overriding events like the one today and its how deep does the cold go and do we end up with more ice than snow or does the cold slow its process and we mainly get rain. So next weekend will start to look at this more closely as we hit the weekend.

The stormy pattern will last longer than 10-14 days imo. I think that part is locked in for the foreseeable future. Flooding concerns are sure to be the story going forward as we get into Spring. Get the boats ready! Lol.

[tron777]

Hope to cash in next week because after that conditions will turn warmer. Let’s reel one in!

I'm not entirely sold on that yet Trev. I am watching the MJO to see how things look as well as the orientation and shape of the PV. If it's just a stretching event, then yes... we will turn warm again after next week. I am in agreement with that. But, if we can manage a true splitting of the PV and get that ridge bridge up top to lock it in place (trap it underneath the block) then we will remain colder, longer. There is too much uncertainty yet in my mind to make that call.

Speaking of the MJO, it is trucking right along. Should be in Phase 6 by now per the Aussies which is a very mild phase. GEFS gets us into Phase 7 by mid Feb (which isn't great, but it isn't horrible either) and the Euro has us in Phase 8 which would be wonderful. We'll see how it goes. A 50 / 50 chance in my mind on this.

I think any guidance showing a true split is overdone. The NAO trending positive after the upcoming dip will not help either. Getting sustained cold in February gets more and more difficult as the month goes on. I think the cold maxes out next week then moderation and typical yo-yo as we future transition toward spring. We shall see of course but I’m not buying any big time cold settling in.

Next week definitely has the snow/ice look to it. Favorable for sure. Beyond that the colder periods become much shorter imo lasting only a couple to few days at a time. So it’ll be harder to score after next week. Still possible, just harder. Next week will definitely be the most favorable we will have until next winter.

The guidance has been backing off on the PV split and if this is correct, then I completely agree Trev. Still though, I am curious to see what happens with the MJO. The Euro this winter has actually done a good job so we'll have to wait and see if it scores again or not.

[tron777]

Good morning and some great posts this morning. Concerning later today and I believe we have it covered on this forum and no reason to change. Then the Saturday system looks similar and will just watch the timing when precip arrives. Still mainly a rain event. Next week and models are still going back and forth but I agree with Bgoney this is a week where the cold will try and advance much further south and when that happens in mid-Feb normally we get stormy. The one concern is the NAO and it still shows a positive sign next week but not as strong. Would love to see that head more towards the neutral or even negative side. The AO which had such the switch from positive to negative means something is going on with the atmosphere and my only thoughts is the Polar Vortex. I am with Les that no we don't see the kind of weather we saw in early January but I still believe a stormier pattern which really is starting today and should last a good 10-14 days. Does this mean snow and maybe and the PNA is still expected to be slightly positive and that helps in keeping the southeast getting out of hand. So the system next week will probably be in the overriding events like the one today and its how deep does the cold go and do we end up with more ice than snow or does the cold slow its process and we mainly get rain. So next weekend will start to look at this more closely as we hit the weekend.

The stormy pattern will last longer than 10-14 days imo. I think that part is locked in for the foreseeable future. Flooding concerns are sure to be the story going forward as we get into Spring. Get the boats ready! Lol.

If the snow pack builds up next week to our NE which is expected then once the rain comes after that, yeah... it isn't looing good for the OH River that is for sure. Totally agree with this!

EDIT: I expect an active pattern well into March.