Absolute Vorticity

Will be back on later tonight and probably halftime of ND/PENN STATE. Big Penn State fan

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:07 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:47 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:39 pm Purely fantasy thinking on my part, but wouldnt it be great if the forecast completely bust like Jan 1996 and we get 12+ inches out of this storm!!

Pete if we get 12 plus with this storm I will come over and shovel your driveway,sidewalk and maybe the whole street lol

Mine too. I'll buy the beer lol

And I’ll supervise. Bad back. Lol

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 3:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:07 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:47 pm

Pete1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:39 pm Purely fantasy thinking on my part, but wouldnt it be great if the forecast completely bust like Jan 1996 and we get 12+ inches out of this storm!!

Pete if we get 12 plus with this storm I will come over and shovel your driveway,sidewalk and maybe the whole street lol

Mine too. I'll buy the beer lol

And I’ll supervise. Bad back. Lol

You'll be sitting back in a lawn chair?

Latest AFD from the boys: Short n sweet!

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Have a winter weather advisory across the entire region. Cannot
rule out some isolated 4 inch values across the Tri-State
region, however confidence was not high enough at this time to
go with a warning. In general across the region have values
between 2 to 4 inches with the highest values around the Tri-
State.

Snow will start to move in around the middle of the day on
Friday and then ramp up during the late afternoon and into the
evening hours. Snow will start to decrease later during the
overnight hours. Winds will not be that strong during the short
term, however they will change directions from a more southerly
direction during the day on Friday and then becoming more
westerly by the end of Friday night.

New MD issued for frz rain in NE OK and SW AR:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0026.html

18Z RGEM's snowfall layout is 4"+ over Central IN. 2-3" for the I-71 and OH River county corridor and south of there back to 3-4"+. Again, we will be nowcasting and monitoring the 700 MB frontogenic forcing tomorrow. Remember the last storm how all of that purple was over us on the maps I posted a couple of times? This time it'll be SW to NE and not E to W for the contour lines, but we want to see that over us again for the shot at getting better totals. We saw a lot of mesoscale banding on the last storm and the bands were much much bigger! With this one smaller bands.

LOL @ 18Z GFS. The Cincy to Dayton screw zone of 1-2" and all the way around us gets up to 4"

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 4:51 pm LOL @ 18Z GFS. The Cincy to Dayton screw zone of 1-2" and all the way around us gets up to 4"

The latest RAP shows something similar. Hopefully this is just a little blip, but the 18z runs(other than the HRRR) have been a step back.

Rain / snow line appears to be over SW AR right now. Central AR is seeing snow and the U20s to L30s. SW AR is mid 30s and raining like in El Dorado.

cincy02 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 4:51 pm LOL @ 18Z GFS. The Cincy to Dayton screw zone of 1-2" and all the way around us gets up to 4"

The latest RAP shows something similar. Hopefully this is just a little blip, but the 18z runs(other than the HRRR) have been a step back.

I'm not too concerned. Models will have trouble pinpointing where the mesoscale bands will be.

The cold front (N piece) is bringing snow finally into the Arrowhead of MN down thru Minneapolis and into Neb just N of Omaha. A small gap then the snow coming up from the S piece is now getting into Central and S Kansas. Pretty darn nice timing if you ask me. I don't know how much phasing we will see, but there absolutely will be a phase of some kind.

Kids had one day of school this week (today) and back off tomorrow

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:20 pm Kids had one day of school this week (today) and back off tomorrow

Boone county schools were closed today and closed tomorrow already. 5 days closed this week.

Hot Springs, AR doesn't look so hot today!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:08 pm Got the approval to work from home tomorrow. Sweeet! Now I can enjoy it from here and not have to drive in it. Bring it on!!!


mc-hammer.jpg

Waiting on XU to call remote. I would be anyway since kids are home and youngest is getting over a bug.

Weird - double posted

Low over the Gulf off the SE TX coast continues to deepen, 1008 MB now.

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:08 pm Got the approval to work from home tomorrow. Sweeet! Now I can enjoy it from here and not have to drive in it. Bring it on!!!


mc-hammer.jpg

Waiting on XU to call remote. I would be anyway since kids are home and youngest is getting over a bug.

I hope the kids are ready to shovel again. Chicken noodle soup tonight or tomorrow night so they can shovel come Saturday lol At least this event will be much easier to clean up.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:35 pm

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 5:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:08 pm Got the approval to work from home tomorrow. Sweeet! Now I can enjoy it from here and not have to drive in it. Bring it on!!!


mc-hammer.jpg

Waiting on XU to call remote. I would be anyway since kids are home and youngest is getting over a bug.

I hope the kids are ready to shovel again. Chicken noodle soup tonight or tomorrow night so they can shovel come Saturday lol At least this event will be much easier to clean up.

CVG gets 0.22" of QPF from the 18Z Euro.

MD issued for hvy precip over Central AR this evening:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0027.html

SPC Mesoanalysis this evening indicates arctic high pressure of 1028 MB that has been over us today providing the clear skies and calm winds, is moving off to the East. It is currently located over SE Ohio. Temps will fall quickly this evening but rise again after midnight as WAA begins to kick in and we get a southerly flow of air on the backside of the departing high pressure. Cold front at this time is located over Lake Superior, Eastern MN, NW Iowa, Eastern Neb and Western KS . The southern low off the TX SE Coast per the latest 3 hour pressure falls, indicates a possible track towards SE Alabama instead of it hugging the coast, So this is good news in getting the moisture in here. Moisture transport from the Gulf and ahead of that cold front continues this evening across TX, OK, KS and AR. Almost all of AR now is covered in precip per radar except the NE corner.

After tomorrow's storm, we will be adding some more snow cover on the S edge of the pack on this map. You can clearly see the screw zones so far this winter. Upper Midwest and Lakes (outside of the snow belts) and the I-95 area / Big Cities of the NE.


Any model in the longer term showing a rapid warm up should not be taken too seriously at this time. (I am not saying any of them are, cause they're not)

NWS Nashville has upped the totals for their region of Middle TN to 6-8" Wow! It's gonna cripple the Southern / SE US.! What a winter so far guys. Pretty awesome!