Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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If we get no mixing, then 6-10" if not more is a nice call. If we see mixing, then I agree Aaron, 4-6" plus whatever other ptype we get looks good.
As always, it'll depend on the track of the low but I'd be concerned with mixing for Georgetown moreso then Hillsboro. If the stronger solution pans out then both locations would mix. We should be able to narrow down more of these specifics (I am hoping) with the 12Z Fri runs as some of the energy will be getting sampled by then.
No doubt and probably a lot longer then that for some locations.CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 10:04 am Crazy this has a possibility of being the biggest snowstorm we've had in 5+years
Not that it cannot occur, but I am not seeing any indication in the data that the precip will be cellular in nature. More of a stratiform look so IMO the odds of getting thundersnow will be very low.
We'll see though... lots more model runs to go and we will continue to see little changes on every run. We could see a bump south in the next cycle, then a bump back north, etc etc.
Good point! It can be a factor and it could become one if the low gets strong. If it remains weak then it'll be less of an issue. So I agree with you that we will need to watch that as well as the mid levels for precip type.CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:16 am The dry slot factor always scares me when it comes to backside snow
I will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:22 am I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?
Kind of where my mind was going with the amount of precipitation with this one. Let's hope for our sake out here that doesn't last long.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:25 amI will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:22 am I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?
The storm duration will have everything to do with the dry slot as Cincinnati01 mentioned. If we see it, there will be a lessening or even a break in the precip early Mon morning. If it does not occur then precip (mainly snow) would continue for at least the 1st half of the day Monday on the backside and add a few inches on top of the ice. To me I think we all start as snow. When does the changeover occur and for who are the details that we need to continue working on. At this time.... I think even Cincy is in the mixing zone. I'd feel better if the Euro ticked back south lolBookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:28 amKind of where my mind was going with the amount of precipitation with this one. Let's hope for our sake out here that doesn't last long.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:25 amI will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:22 am I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?
No matter how you add it up it will be a winter mess.....but also, quite fun LOLtron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:32 amThe storm duration will have everything to do with the dry slot as Cincinnati01 mentioned. If we see it, there will be a lessening or even a break in the precip early Mon morning. If it does not occur then precip (mainly snow) would continue for at least the 1st half of the day Monday on the backside and add a few inches on top of the ice. To me I think we all start as snow. When does the changeover occur and for who are the details that we need to continue working on. At this time.... I think even Cincy is in the mixing zone. I'd feel better if the Euro ticked back south lolBookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:28 amKind of where my mind was going with the amount of precipitation with this one. Let's hope for our sake out here that doesn't last long.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:25 amI will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 11:22 am I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?