January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[fyrfyter]

At least with the total accumulations, it looks like even with any ice, we should easily hit that 4-6” at this point. If this continues, 6+ may be doable.

[vbowler]

Do we think East of CVG such as Georgetown and Hillsboro will stay more Snow or more Mixing in the current Scenario

[tron777]

At least with the total accumulations, it looks like even with any ice, we should easily hit that 4-6” at this point. If this continues, 6+ may be doable.

If we get no mixing, then 6-10" if not more is a nice call. If we see mixing, then I agree Aaron, 4-6" plus whatever other ptype we get looks good.

[tron777]

Do we think East of CVG such as Georgetown and Hillsboro will stay more Snow or more Mixing in the current Scenario

As always, it'll depend on the track of the low but I'd be concerned with mixing for Georgetown moreso then Hillsboro. If the stronger solution pans out then both locations would mix. We should be able to narrow down more of these specifics (I am hoping) with the 12Z Fri runs as some of the energy will be getting sampled by then.

[CINCINNATI01]

Crazy this has a possibility of being the biggest snowstorm we've had in 5+years

[tron777]

Crazy this has a possibility of being the biggest snowstorm we've had in 5+years

No doubt and probably a lot longer then that for some locations.

[tron777]

Travis's video:





BAM Wx's video:





I have not seen anything from BG over at WAVE 3 as of yet.

[CINCINNATI01]

What's the possibility of thunder snow?

[tron777]

12Z RGEM is close to the NAM with the mx line knocking on CVG / Cincinnati's door. It's going to come down to the wire most likely.

[tron777]

What's the possibility of thunder snow?

Not that it cannot occur, but I am not seeing any indication in the data that the precip will be cellular in nature. More of a stratiform look so IMO the odds of getting thundersnow will be very low.

[tron777]

12Z GFS coming in now and as you can see, mixing issues continue to grow for Cincy on south. Luckily, my work is allowing us to work from home Monday and Tuesday of next week. We threatened to call off so we forced their hand.

[tron777]

Rain even gets into our S counties on the new GFS here. Wow, very strong system!

[tron777]

Looking very nice for the I-70 Posters right now for sure to remain all snow. Cincy area is a question mark like usual. You know how it goes for us in most cases. We'll see though... lots more model runs to go and we will continue to see little changes on every run. We could see a bump south in the next cycle, then a bump back north, etc etc.

[Bgoney]

The 540 thickness line has steadily trended just to the south of Dayton on modeling

[CINCINNATI01]

Cold rain knocking on our door

[tron777]

I am liking the backside snow though that all models continue to show for Mon morning.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian is a bit colder (as it usually is) and keeps the mixing from around the river on south, Still has the nice backside snows for everyone that I just mentioned.

[CINCINNATI01]

The dry slot factor always scares me when it comes to backside snow

[tron777]

The dry slot factor always scares me when it comes to backside snow

Good point! It can be a factor and it could become one if the low gets strong. If it remains weak then it'll be less of an issue. So I agree with you that we will need to watch that as well as the mid levels for precip type.

[BookNerdCarp]

I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?

[tron777]

I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?

I will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.

[BookNerdCarp]

I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?

I will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.

Kind of where my mind was going with the amount of precipitation with this one. Let's hope for our sake out here that doesn't last long.

[Bgoney]

That’s a pretty big jump in the low track( near Lexington) from 12z so far. Hopefully one of many blips still to come

[tron777]

I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?

I will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.

Kind of where my mind was going with the amount of precipitation with this one. Let's hope for our sake out here that doesn't last long.

The storm duration will have everything to do with the dry slot as Cincinnati01 mentioned. If we see it, there will be a lessening or even a break in the precip early Mon morning. If it does not occur then precip (mainly snow) would continue for at least the 1st half of the day Monday on the backside and add a few inches on top of the ice. To me I think we all start as snow. When does the changeover occur and for who are the details that we need to continue working on. At this time.... I think even Cincy is in the mixing zone. I'd feel better if the Euro ticked back south lol

[BookNerdCarp]

I am assuming that these mixing issues which will no doubt hit my hood are going to be icing issues. That we do not want. Any thoughts on ice accretion at this point?

I will generically say that a quarter inch or more is on the table. If temps can remain in the 20s that would be very bad news. Precip rate also is key. If it comes down heavy, it doesn't accrete as good as if it comes down lighter.

Kind of where my mind was going with the amount of precipitation with this one. Let's hope for our sake out here that doesn't last long.

The storm duration will have everything to do with the dry slot as Cincinnati01 mentioned. If we see it, there will be a lessening or even a break in the precip early Mon morning. If it does not occur then precip (mainly snow) would continue for at least the 1st half of the day Monday on the backside and add a few inches on top of the ice. To me I think we all start as snow. When does the changeover occur and for who are the details that we need to continue working on. At this time.... I think even Cincy is in the mixing zone. I'd feel better if the Euro ticked back south lol

No matter how you add it up it will be a winter mess.....but also, quite fun LOL