Absolute Vorticity

Off Topic
A local HS where my grandkids live is playing in the state finals of
Division 2 football in Canton Ohio this Thursday at 7:00.
(Anderson vs Avon). Weather may play a huge factor.

CVG got to 30, DAY 32 and CMH 34 on Tues.

Mjr wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:42 pm Off Topic
A local HS where my grandkids live is playing in the state finals of
Division 2 football in Canton Ohio this Thursday at 7:00.
(Anderson vs Avon). Weather may play a huge factor.

Aren't both teams undefeated? That would be an awesome game to watch! I've fished for walleye off of Avon Point many times on Lake Erie lol

Good morning! A touch of rain and snow along with some wind is on the way for later today and tonight. COLD for your Thursday along with more wind and low windchills. No changes to the short term and medium range forecasts. A decent weekend then we turn mild and wet early next week. After that we continue to watch and wait to see what happens for Wed / Thurs time frame. GFS is too progressive so after Monday's rain, nothing happens. Euro has a big cutter into Michigan. The CMC is awesome and a direct hit! Euro AI is pretty good too.

Good Morning Les and there is some very patchy light fr/drizzle this morning but at this time no problem but if you see a glare that could be a little ice in spots. We talk about the CMC which is normally colder than the other models but every year it hits on 1 or 2 bigger storms before the Euro and GFS only to lose the storm or have it much warmer just a few days out. No ideal why but it occurs every season. Will next week be that storm and to early to even guess but just going from past history on this kind of situation. My biggest question next week is after the first storm how cold air will be able to filter in and not sure yet

Tim... I think the amount of cold air will depend on three things. One, the strength of Monday's system and two... where the frontal boundary actually stops. Third... how amplified will the pattern be to allow for that second trough to dig enough to take the right track for us. 6Z OP GFS was a step in the right direction. Just a hair to the East from its track and you've got the Canadian's solution. There is certainly enough model support to keep me interested. We are at the keep your one eye open stage right now.

An SPS has been issued from the boys for the wind and cold temps on the way:

...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...SLICK SPOTS AND COLD CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

Wind gusts of up to 40 MPH are possible this afternoon through
Thursday morning. These winds may blow around loose
or light weight objects such as decorations, in particular
inflatable decorations.

A cold front moves through this evening bringing the potential for
snow showers. While accumulations will generally be less than one
half inch, quick bursts of snow will lead to reductions in
visibility. In addition, quickly falling temperatures will lead to
the potential for slick spots on surfaces. Cold conditions are
expected Thursday morning with wind chill values between 0 and 5
degrees.

Hey Les great post and also I like the SPS statement and yes with the snow showers and temp drop added with the winds you will the snow blown across the roads and yes you can get those slick spots.

Just looking once again at the tellies and there is nothing showing a long term warm spell. Sure we get warmer early next week but it will cool down but how much is the question. No doubt the GFS latest run closer to the CMC. Give it a few days but at least next is interesting at the least. Even the mjo on Monday was in phase 5 but yesterday phase 4 so what does this tell me and not a 100p/c sure but getting to the warmer phase 6 may be a problem or at least it will be in a weaken stage. The AO and NAO look to remain negative heading towards neutral and the PNA still slightly positive which is a good combo because if the pna is to positive this can keep the storm track well to the south like we have seen this past week or so

Just another few days of paradise for the LES machine !! I see Chardon on that map!!!!

Really amazing they named a winter snow event after are own LES. Wow he must know folks in high places

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 6:11 am Really amazing they named a winter snow event after are own LES. Wow he must know folks in high places

I wish Tim!

No doubt most models have now caught on to an MJO slowdown due to the anomalous easterlies, throwing an even bigger wrench of uncertainty in the long range uncertainties of temp regime . SOI continues to climb

The SOI continuing to climb is a sign that the Nina is not going away and could be trying to gets its act together. It's also causing issues with the progression of the MJO too. From the Pro Mets out there on the internet, I am reading that this could lead to a warmer pattern for North America later in December with a strong SE ridge. We'll have to wait and see on that.

For now... after Day 10, GEFS and EPS have definitely trended warmer unfortunately. Trough returns to AK and the West coast with ridging over a good chunk of the country as the cold remains bottled up in Canada. PV gets really strong and you have a +AO / +NAO combo.

Pro mets see the same things from the same data available that we see . We know the MJO has a big say in the winter air mass location and availability. That will never change. To soon to say if the slowdown of its progression leads to a collapse into the COD or it can eventually recover and move into a traditional eastward stroll through the PAC

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:49 am Pro mets see the same things from the same data available that we see . We know the MJO has a big say in the winter air mass location and availability. That will never change. To soon to say if the slowdown of its progression leads to a collapse into the COD or it can eventually recover and move into a traditional eastward stroll through the PAC

I don't know yet either to be honest and I'm not making a call either way. Hopefully, these chain of events do not ramp up the Pacific Jet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:56 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:49 am Pro mets see the same things from the same data available that we see . We know the MJO has a big say in the winter air mass location and availability. That will never change. To soon to say if the slowdown of its progression leads to a collapse into the COD or it can eventually recover and move into a traditional eastward stroll through the PAC

I don't know yet either to be honest and I'm not making a call either way. Hopefully, these chain of events do not ramp up the Pacific Jet.

I hope it doesn’t collapse in the warm phases, I’d rather it have some giddy-up through those, swallow a warm period and then get to Holy Grail phases as quickly as possible.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 8:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:56 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:49 am Pro mets see the same things from the same data available that we see . We know the MJO has a big say in the winter air mass location and availability. That will never change. To soon to say if the slowdown of its progression leads to a collapse into the COD or it can eventually recover and move into a traditional eastward stroll through the PAC

I don't know yet either to be honest and I'm not making a call either way. Hopefully, these chain of events do not ramp up the Pacific Jet.

I hope it doesn’t collapse in the warm phases, I’d rather it have some giddy-up through those, swallow a warm period and then get to Holy Grail phases as quickly as possible.

For sure and that is the concern that it collapses in the warm phases. It is currently in Phase 4 per the Aussies where it has put on the brakes. Phase 4 is a torch along with above normal rainfall. Modeling shows this stalling though to be a temporary thing and we're in phase 6 by the 17th, We watch and wait as usual.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 6:18 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 6:11 am Really amazing they named a winter snow event after are own LES. Wow he must know folks in high places

I wish Tim!

Hey Les,

Unfortunately LES isn't on TWC winter storms name list for 2024-2025. Instead its Lola!

"Her name was Lola, she was a showgirl ..."

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 9:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 6:18 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 6:11 am Really amazing they named a winter snow event after are own LES. Wow he must know folks in high places

I wish Tim!

Hey Les,

Unfortunately LES isn't on TWC winter storms name list for 2024-2025. Instead its Lola!

"Her name was Lola, she was a showgirl ..."

How about the Kinks classic rock tune - Lola

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 8:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:56 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:49 am Pro mets see the same things from the same data available that we see . We know the MJO has a big say in the winter air mass location and availability. That will never change. To soon to say if the slowdown of its progression leads to a collapse into the COD or it can eventually recover and move into a traditional eastward stroll through the PAC

I don't know yet either to be honest and I'm not making a call either way. Hopefully, these chain of events do not ramp up the Pacific Jet.

I hope it doesn’t collapse in the warm phases, I’d rather it have some giddy-up through those, swallow a warm period and then get to Holy Grail phases as quickly as possible.

Yes collapse in the warm phases almost always brings us bad news. Of course if the collapse is in the cold phases we do well.

12Z GFS was close, but a little too late with getting that low cranked up for Wed / Thurs next week. The 12Z Canadian is back to the progressive solution. It'll be a while before we can get next week nailed down.

12Z GEFS members are all over the place still and the 12Z Euro was also way too progressive for next week.