Absolute Vorticity

No changes in temp anomalies through mid month as the 500mb pattern rolls on. It’s been an easy way to go for temp forecasts for the fall, Sept/Oct/Nov

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:10 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:03 am CVG officially broke the warmest high low yesterday at 61 degrees

The record high at CVG for today is 80. We will probably see 78 or get 79'ed again.

DAY tied yesterday for the date at 76 from 1975 and 2003. ILN has 77 for DAY today. Indian Summer in Nov.

----

Per the latest radar trends.... it looks like most of the rain will be tonight into early Wed. I still am on board with the idea of a weakening incoming system. I think the ongoing forecast looks really good.

Hey Les and I agree it should weaken but not like last week. The dew points are near 60 compared to having them in the 40's and low 50's with the last round of rain. So no doubt the rainfall totals to our west should not be here but still going .33-.75 as we have a little less time in getting the atmosphere primed before last weeks rain.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:14 pm Hey Les and I agree it should weaken but not like last week. The dew points are near 60 compared to having them in the 40's and low 50's with the last round of rain. So no doubt the rainfall totals to our west should not be here but still going .33-.75 as we have a little less time in getting the atmosphere primed before last weeks rain.

0.50" or less should work for most locations. The rainfall rate, or intensity, on radar isn't very impressive looking IMO.

Les we are on the same page and one item I look at is when the rain falls. Between say 4-8am I tend to add a little more rainfall and that is why I needed to put my high side up from 0.50. Again we are seeing the same thing and very easily good be a win for both of us on this forecast.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:29 pm Les we are on the same page and one item I look at is when the rain falls. Between say 4-8am I tend to add a little more rainfall and that is why I needed to put my high side up from 0.50. Again we are seeing the same thing and very easily good be a win for both of us on this forecast.

I think the call will work out Tim. I saw some model projections from the other day showing 0.75" or more and due to the drought and the big time ridging, I have to go slower / less in the way of QPF versus what the guidance is trying to sell.

For the next system that is due in by Sunday, let's see if we can get any influence from TS Rafael. Would love to see the extra moisture as we need it badly.

77 Cvg

I haven’t seen the 12z data yet but for the weekend possibilities there was a wide spread with placement of best moisture, and how the trough either grabs the moisture or pushes it more south (or timing), and SE ridge placement.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:26 pm I haven’t seen the 12z data yet but for the weekend possibilities there was a wide spread with placement of best moisture, and how the trough either grabs the moisture or pushes it more south (or timing), and SE ridge placement.

Great Post and yes will wait until we get this first system out of the way before trying to forecast rainfall amounts with the weekend system. At least we are starting to get busy but staying very mild which is one thing 1st year La Nina's are noted for in the lower 48.

Just another November day of records
All those pinkish colors are monthly records. Huntington WV recorded a temp of 86!!!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:31 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:26 pm I haven’t seen the 12z data yet but for the weekend possibilities there was a wide spread with placement of best moisture, and how the trough either grabs the moisture or pushes it more south (or timing), and SE ridge placement.

Great Post and yes will wait until we get this first system out of the way before trying to forecast rainfall amounts with the weekend system. At least we are starting to get busy but staying very mild which is one thing 1st year La Nina's are noted for in the lower 48.

The weekend system will be tough to call IMO with the tropics potentially getting involved. That will impact the speed and placement of the front depending on how strong Rafael gets and his track.

Cvg showing a max of 78.8. I don’t know if they round up or not?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:45 pm Cvg showing a max of 78.8. I don’t know if they round up or not?

They should round it to 79. We'll see on the 5pm climate report here shortly. 78 here today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:47 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:45 pm Cvg showing a max of 78.8. I don’t know if they round up or not?

They should round it to 79. We'll see on the 5pm climate report here shortly. 78 here today.

I guess not... 5pm climate report shows 78.

CVG got to 78, DAY 77 and CMH 79 today.

DAY's 77 broke 76 from 1977 and CMH's 79 broke 77 from 2022!

----

Good Evening and still awhile before the steadier rains will happen. Could get a shower or two before midnight. What the models are trying to show as well is the front stalls south of here on Wednesday and maybe another small low rides along the front which could provide another round with this front early Thursday morning. Lets hope this happens. Still going 0.33-0.75 and nothing to change my mind and hopefully I will be on the low side.

record highs here possible today. they are saying temp will approach 76 degrees or so. about 20 degrees above avg

Good morning all! 0.12" as of 4am at CVG with some nice light to mod rains out there this morning. We could sure use it! Next chance comes Sat night and Sunday. Mild temps in the 60s and 70s remain for highs with lows in the 40s and 50s.

0.38" as of 6am at CVG. Not bad! We have a couple more hours to go also.

I got .55 overnight. I’ll take it.

0.48" as of 7am at CVG. Looks like the 1/2" call was money! (Paging Bgoney!)

0.53" updated total for CVG.