Absolute Vorticity

Warm and 45 minute of pickle ball will make you sweat. Cold front is starting to work into northwest Indiana but it take much of the day before it arrives. Winds are up a little today and when the front arrive could see over 20 mph but for a short period of time.Wake up in the morning and what a nice refreshing air mass.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:26 am Warm and 45 minute of pickle ball will make you sweat. Cold front is starting to work into northwest Indiana but it take much of the day before it arrives. Winds are up a little today and when the front arrive could see over 20 mph but for a short period of time.Wake up in the morning and what a nice refreshing air mass.

We are going to be baking out there for my nephew's football game coming up this afternoon. At least there is a breeze but it'll still be hot in the sun with temps in the 80s. Summer lingers on... Ugh... We need the rain but next week is more our style Tim as far as temps go!

Mid 80s call is on the money.... 86 at CVG. How high will we go today ahead of this front? Strong southerly flow and a dry air mass will do it ahead of the cold front. 86 also here too. Front is into Central IN now.

12Z GFS has a quick in and out cool shot around mid month but we warm right back up. GFS is totally dry for CVG out to 16 days and the Euro dry out to 10 days. Not good... I know Helene just drenched us but wildfire season could be tough this year with the leaves dropping and dry fuels / and the ground drying out again.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:32 am We're on the same page with the temp forecast next week Tim! Good call! Like I said to Bgoney, until we see the tropics settle down, I am not expecting any colder shots in here that would cause an area wide frost. We'll see though in the last 7-10 days of the month how things look. The tropics aren't the only reason though. The 500 MB pattern over North America isn't good either. Canada just had its warmest Sept on record so we don't have any true cold air nearby at this time. Ensembles are still showing a lot of ridging over the CONUS. Dry dry dry with normal temps next week, going to above normal after that along with the drought re-intensifying again for us locally is the name of the game unfortunately.

Thankfully it's their warmest September on record. Let's get that warmth out of the way. Last year December was a blowtorch in Canada. Hopefully things will balance out. A cold Canada in November and December would be nice.

dce wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:32 am We're on the same page with the temp forecast next week Tim! Good call! Like I said to Bgoney, until we see the tropics settle down, I am not expecting any colder shots in here that would cause an area wide frost. We'll see though in the last 7-10 days of the month how things look. The tropics aren't the only reason though. The 500 MB pattern over North America isn't good either. Canada just had its warmest Sept on record so we don't have any true cold air nearby at this time. Ensembles are still showing a lot of ridging over the CONUS. Dry dry dry with normal temps next week, going to above normal after that along with the drought re-intensifying again for us locally is the name of the game unfortunately.

Thankfully it's their warmest September on record. Let's get that warmth out of the way. Last year December was a blowtorch in Canada. Hopefully things will balance out. A cold Canada in November and December would be nice.

I'm not expecting it Doug but yeah it would be nice as you mentioned. If you've been following along in our winter thoughts thread, I am going mild for this season. Not looking too good with that -PDO still in charge of the Pacific pattern.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:39 pm Mid 80s call is on the money.... 86 at CVG. How high will we go today ahead of this front? Strong southerly flow and a dry air mass will do it ahead of the cold front. 86 also here too. Front is into Central IN now.

12Z GFS has a quick in and out cool shot around mid month but we warm right back up. GFS is totally dry for CVG out to 16 days and the Euro dry out to 10 days. Not good... I know Helene just drenched us but wildfire season could be tough this year with the leaves dropping and dry fuels / and the ground drying out again.

We may not be done with 80 degree temps . Next weekend could get there before the next cool down .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 4:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 06, 2024 3:39 pm Mid 80s call is on the money.... 86 at CVG. How high will we go today ahead of this front? Strong southerly flow and a dry air mass will do it ahead of the cold front. 86 also here too. Front is into Central IN now.

12Z GFS has a quick in and out cool shot around mid month but we warm right back up. GFS is totally dry for CVG out to 16 days and the Euro dry out to 10 days. Not good... I know Helene just drenched us but wildfire season could be tough this year with the leaves dropping and dry fuels / and the ground drying out again.

We may not be done with 80 degree temps . Next weekend could get there before the next cool down .

Totally agree. With the dry weather, dry air mass and ground drying out again, it wouldn't shock me at all. In fact, I'd count on it! ILN already has upper 70s in the forecast for next weekend.

HAPPY 36TH BIRTHDAY MIKE!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!

2040 61 5 NE Jefferson Ashtabula OH 4178 8070 ASOS station KHZY Ashtabula measured a 61 MPH thunderstorm wind gust. (CLE)

2046 100 Roaming Shores Ashtabula OH 4164 8082 Quarter size hail. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2206 UNK 1 NE North Canton Stark OH 4090 8136 Tree downed near the intersection of Route 43 and Mt Pleasant Road ... taking down power-lines and knocking out power in the area. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2212 100 Louisville Stark OH 4084 8126 Quarter size hail. Time estimated via radar. (CLE)

2235 UNK 4 WSW Hanoverton Columbiana OH 4073 8101 Tree down on Lippincott Road. (PBZ)

2243 UNK 5 S Salem Columbiana OH 4083 8086 Tree down on Depot and Winona Road. (PBZ)

0056 UNK 7 W McArthur Vinton OH 3927 8261 Multiple trees reported down along with lines. Time estimated by radar. (RLX)

CVG got to 86, DAY 85 and CMH 87 today.

Good morning all! A short post since there are no major changes to report. A dry week ahead thru next weekend. with temps in the upper 60s today, warming towards 80 by the weekend. Lows in the 40s warming into the 50s later this week. Then we get another frontal system with limited moisture that drops us into the 60s next week once again. An early prelim call would be highs in the low to mid 60s and lows around 40. Could certainly see some 30s in rural / outlying areas. I know Tim has been all over this mid month cool shot. I personally don't think we'll see any frost. Obviously not here in town. Rural areas and sheltered valleys... it's borderline IMO and with everything being so dry again, it might be tough even if you had temps in the mid 30s. We'll see as we get closer. The bottom line for us though is that the drought rages on!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:15 amIMG_2401.jpeg

If you were to extend that map out another week beyond that, it would probably look similar. This sucks!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:15 amIMG_2401.jpeg

If you were to extend that map out another week beyond that, it would probably look similar. This sucks!

Yep, with drought expansion in the Midwest and plains added to ours , and if there’s not much improvement in all areas before winter, we have to start wondering how this will affect winter storms and precip associated with them

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:33 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:15 amIMG_2401.jpeg

If you were to extend that map out another week beyond that, it would probably look similar. This sucks!

Yep, with drought expansion in the Midwest and plains added to ours , and if there’s not much improvement in all areas before winter, we have to start wondering how this will affect winter storms and precip associated with them

Agreed and with a La Nina winter, the northern jet is typically dominant so you don't usually get much of a subtropical jet like you do in Nino's,

Good Morning and it was quite toasty yesterday and the front sort of got held up along the river for a period of time and this allowed the dew points to remain in the 60's most of the day compared to Indy who saw the front come through earlier and dew points fell quickly into the 30's. Another dry week and that continues to be the big story around here. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings I still believe outlying areas can get into the mid-30's and again this happens every fall while at Cvg between 40-45 most of the week. Daytime may be around 70 early in the week warming to the mid 70's and maybe upper 70's by late in the week. Still looking at a cold shot late in the weekend or early next week and once again models will go back and forth until Milton moves on and Hurricanes especially strong ones always do a number on the models because the atmosphere will be so heated up and spreads it rather far north so models tend to see this warmth staying around for a longer period but in mid-October and what I am seeing heading this way a nice cold shot with a much better shot of frost early next week but Les made the point about how dry its getting again and dry ground is not good for frost formation.

Tim, I think you have done a great job with regards to tracking the mid month cold shot. However, I still think it'll be short lived and be in and out pretty quickly. The frost chance is a very tough call IMO. Not only due to the dry ground, but you always have to watch cloud and / or wind impacts too. For ideal radiational cooling conditions, you would want a clear sky and calm winds. We both know that the outlying / rural areas have the best chance versus the city areas. We agree on that 100%. Should be interesting to see how deep that trough actually gets. What concerns me is the trough axis is over New England and SE Canada so the coldest of air will be in those zones. If the trough axis was centered further west, I'd be all in on getting frost even in the city. But since we're not going to see that, the outlying areas / rural zones would have a shot versus where you and I live.

Great Post Les and no doubt the coldest air will be northeast of us. Still watching how strong and location of the ridge west of us. Still believe this week we see the riding heading east and we get warmer but I do expect it to head back west and then where is it located and does it move north into western Canada and eastern Alaska. The GOA low is always a concern and once it makes a home sometimes you have a hard time of evicting the low. My son got is first heavy frost this morning and we are heading up there around the 24th of October. Last year we went up around Halloween and got a nice early snowfall which was so nice to see.

Next week we’re getting closer to the normal frost dates for many in the region, So won’t be to much of a surprise to see some frost somewhere in the OV . Normal cold shots with normal warm ups in between after mid month

Here is the Fall Frost / Freeze Climo from the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

It's always good to review that this time of year.

Great posts guys this morning. Heading to the dentist this morning followed by a round of gulf. Just the normal cleaning so in and out quickly. Will check back in later and really the only time I watch the weather channel is during a possible mainland hit of a hurricane as they do a good job with folks everywhere. After Hurricane season probably be next August before I watch once again.

Funny I wrote this post this morning and yes I went to play golf not gulf. My mind was on the weather and not the lovely sport lol

I hope we get a killing frost soon to get rid of some of these awful stink bugs and mosquitoes

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 07, 2024 7:44 am I hope we get a killing frost soon to get rid of some of these awful stink bugs and mosquitoes

It might help my allergies too! It's been tough with all of the dryness.

69 here and at CVG today. Should be able to drop into the 40s for all locations tonight. Thinking 42-45 for CVG Land.