Absolute Vorticity

44 here . ILNs update report on the expanding drought

Good Morning and nice and cool this morning and should be a wonderful stretch of weather except we could use more widespread rains. Warm days and cool nights this week will lead to just a normal week in terms of temps. By midweek above normal highs will be offset with below normal lows and this happens quite often in the fall. By later in the week and weekend we should start to see more gulf moisture headed northeast. Does this mean rain and not sold yet and we could use a slow moving system with tropical rains.

Good morning all! Our weather story for this week will be the moderating temps, the drought, and the tropics. Can we score some much needed rain by Friday / next weekend? Bgoney has us updated nicely on the drought, and we already know that the upper 80s to around 90 degrees are coming back also. So on to the tropics...

In the S Gulf, the tropical wave develops into a depression and eventually a tropical storm. As it parallels the Mexican and eventually the TX Coast, it will slowly strengthen. If some of the models are correct, this thing has plenty of time over water should it make landfall in SW Louisiana as a hurricane. The low looks to come our way or just NW of us on most of the guidance. However, there is a potential problem. (Isn't there always? ) The issue is a large high over SE Canada and New England that gives us a dry flow of air out of the east. So this thing may weaken quite a bit as it tries to move in giving us limited rainfall. That is what the GFS is showing. The Euro is giving us a decent rainfall as the high is far enough away that it doesn't weaken the system too much. So this is something to watch in terms of rainfall amounts and coverage.

Nice posts guys, not much to add except an additional problem that Les mentioned yesterday . With the area of drought growing in all directions, especially south/SW of OV , it’s going to take major moisture surge traveling through that region to reach this far north

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 11:09 am Nice posts guys, not much to add except an additional problem that Les mentioned yesterday . With the area of drought growing in all directions, especially south/SW of OV , it’s going to take major moisture surge traveling through that region to reach this far north

I agree Bgoney and we need a tropical system that stalls over us for several days. This can happen this time of year and with the jet further north would love to see this happen Fri-Sun. I need dry weather for Sept 16-19th as I have a golf outing in Brown Country Indiana or about 2 hours west of here. So hopefully the local area gets rain but it stops west of here next Sunday night lol.

12Z GFS has the tropical leftovers hitting a brick wall of dry air over us and it falls part thanks to the strong high to the NE. If it can survive the dry air then I think we've got a good chance of the system stalling nearby. The dry air is concerning though so it is a challenging forecast coming up for sure.

12Z Euro continues stall the system SW of us offering up more rain chances over multiple days thru next weekend. Still you can see that high and dry air making it tough to get a ton of rain from this system. My concerns are still very valid to not get as much rain as you'd think from this system, Cincy area has the best chance. I-70 Crew may get skunked completely if these trends continue. Still a lot of time to watch as this system has not even fully developed yet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 2:08 pm 12Z Euro continues stall the system SW of us offering up more rain chances over multiple days thru next weekend. Still you can see that high and dry air making it tough to get a ton of rain from this system. My concerns are still very valid to not get as much rain as you'd think from this system, Cincy area has the best chance. I-70 Crew may get skunked completely if these trends continue. Still a lot of time to watch as this system has not even fully developed yet.

Les the CMC brings in tons of rain for us. Still early but hopefully we see the gfs come towards the Euro and Cmc in the next few days.

My Dad and I's next Bocce ball league game will be a week from Mon on the 16th at 6PM but would rather much have needed rainfall than a ballgame!

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 2:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 2:08 pm 12Z Euro continues stall the system SW of us offering up more rain chances over multiple days thru next weekend. Still you can see that high and dry air making it tough to get a ton of rain from this system. My concerns are still very valid to not get as much rain as you'd think from this system, Cincy area has the best chance. I-70 Crew may get skunked completely if these trends continue. Still a lot of time to watch as this system has not even fully developed yet.

Les the CMC brings in tons of rain for us. Still early but hopefully we see the gfs come towards the Euro and Cmc in the next few days.

Looks like the CMC has a stronger / further west system the entire time so the stronger the system, the better chance we have (bad news for the TX / LA Coasts though, but that is the best case scenario for us). Being this far away, the Ensembles are worth looking at. 12Z GEFS has a mean of 1/2" for I-70 Crew less then that for ILN extreme N counties. About 3/4 for Cincy Tri-state. 1"+ just SW of the local area. That contour of rainfall gradient looks good to me. Euro AI is wetter as well just not quiet to the extent of the CMC. Euro AI also lingers clouds and showers esp for SE Crew into early next week. May not be until mid week next week that this system (tropical leftovers) are fully out of our hair. It will bring in some humidity to the air along with somewhat cooler temps.

So what happens after we are dry this week and getting warm to hot again? We know the drought will continue to intensify further. It will depend on how things shake out to see if we can delay the drought from getting worse for a while anyway. Will this be the start of a more active pattern as we approach the Fall Equinox? Or will ridging return and the warmth make a come back?

GEFS shows major ridging over Hudson's Bay / Canada and the Great Lakes while lower heights are over the TN Valley and SE US. This could mean two things. 1 - A cut off low developing such as the Euro AI shows and / or more tropical action coming from the Atlantic side? Best troughing over the Pacific NW and Rockies as well as Alaska. This continues to look like a dry pattern to me minus the tropics getting involved.

For temperatures. Moderating temps esp by midweek with one or two 90 degree days certainly on the table. Then the humidity comes in. After the tropical leftovers, still thinking normal to above normal temps over all. I don't see another deep trough yet as we are currently experiencing.

Les there is so many things on the table and much will come down to the tropics. Do they pick up in the 3rd week of September or go back to a quiet spell. Not sure as the mjo still not in the best phases for tropical development though they can develop like this week. I agree if we can get a decent rain late this week it will at least stop the dryness for a little while but I am talking about 2 plus inches for everyone. I know this time of year some decent rains can bring back the grass but other crops and the creeks and ponds are hurting so we several periods of rain to get back to normal.

It's a desert here as far as the lawn is concerned. I won't mow until leaf grinding season probably.

71 at CVG today, 70 here. Too bad these temps won't last. They'll be back hopefully in a few weeks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 08, 2024 5:30 pm It's a desert here as far as the lawn is concerned. I won't mow until leaf grinding season probably.

The grass has grown back some with the rain on Friday but again still many dry areas in the lawn. Had over an inch and this time of year it really does help for the lawns but not everything else.

For the upcoming week it looks like below normal temps Mon and Tues followed by above normal Wed and Thurs and Friday could be near normal depending on the track of the tropical system. Next weekend is just to early and the forecast will be dependent on the possible tropical system.

Both CVG / DAY got to 71 and CMH 72 today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:26 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 3:34 am my extended forecast is all below avg temps and low dew points. man that is nice to see for early September . we have about 1 month left before we can say goodbye to the miserable summer weather

The only beef I have Charles is with the lack of rain around here. My yard is so dry and crunchy. Otherwise, the temps right now are great!

Yeah that sucks for sure if your bone dry like that. around here its been nice and I have to mow and trim every week yet. July was pretty dry but not enough to stop growth. yesterday was amazing. dew points in the 40s. nw winds 10-15 mph. mostly sunny and mid to upper 60s. these are amazing days for late summer.

Good morning! 45 here this morning as of this writing, CVG 48. A slow warm up and saturation of the atmosphere this week then all eyes are on current PTC 6 in the S Gulf. We'll be tracking high temps, drought, and the tropics here on AV this week. Buckle up folks! We are slowly stepping down into Fall. Heat and tropics are the first steps then comes Fall after the Atlantic is done firing up.

47 now at CVG.

44 officially at CVG this morning. Just missed the record of 43 set back in 1998.

For late week 12z GFS has Francine performing well for for west KY/Indiana while being a major tease for Ohio, in the qpf department

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:29 pm For late week 12z GFS has Francine performing well for for west KY/Indiana while being a major tease for Ohio, in the qpf department

That idea has been my concern for days now. Still is lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:44 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 09, 2024 12:29 pm For late week 12z GFS has Francine performing well for for west KY/Indiana while being a major tease for Ohio, in the qpf department

That idea has been my concern for days now. Still is lol

Yep , early for a forecast, but atm this scenario has the higher probability over some others , for all the reasons talked about yesterday, IMO

Dewpoint is at 38 at CVG, wow that is dry!