Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all! One more hot day is in store before a small t-storm chance occurs tonight into Wed. The mid to U80s Thurs and Fri will give way to a taste of early Fall this weekend. Guidance now has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s! Isn't that delightful?

Good Morning Les and that sounds great. Just took a tad longer than models had shown but we had it covered on here and knew the tropical system that was forecast to stall would also prevent items upstream to stall just enough that we must wait until the weekend to feel that wonderful air.

Next week will start out nice but of course mid-August and we will warm up plus another tropical system may be getting close to mainland and we know that can throw models off

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 6:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 4:33 am Good morning all! One more hot day is in store before a small t-storm chance occurs tonight into Wed. The mid to U80s Thurs and Fri will give way to a taste of early Fall this weekend. Guidance now has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s! Isn't that delightful?

Good Morning Les and that sounds great. Just took a tad longer than models had shown but we had it covered on here and knew the tropical system that was forecast to stall would also prevent items upstream to stall just enough that we must wait until the weekend to feel that wonderful air.

Next week will start out nice but of course mid-August and we will warm up plus another tropical system may be getting close to mainland and we know that can throw models off

Good morning Tim! I agree that the tropics will play a role esp with regards to temps in the extended range. The GFS has the 90s returning while the Euro has more 70s and 80s. We'll just have to wait and see what happens! You know as well as I do that the models struggle with the overall pattern whenever the tropics tend to get involved.

Les I believe we stand a good chance of seeing some upper 50's this weekend and of course mid 50's in the outlying areas. A few days without the A/C sounds wonderful

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 6:47 am Les I believe we stand a good chance of seeing some upper 50's this weekend and of course mid 50's in the outlying areas. A few days without the A/C sounds wonderful

CVG always has a hard time dropping but outside of city centers, definitely can see a couple of nights in the 50s! Even St. Louis won't be as hot as it was this past weekend. Thankfully!

Hottest few days of the year in my book,as far as working in it. Not a leaf has been stirring unlike our other hot spells

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90 as of 2pm at CVG.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 9:13 am Hottest few days of the year in my book,as far as working in it. Not a leaf has been stirring unlike our other hot spells

I agree its very still and you can just feel the humidity. Hopefully the break comes this weekend.

No doubt the front and energy has stayed further north today and this means less chance of rain. Still can get a shower or two this evening and overnight but the main energy well to the northeast I believe this lessens the chance of rain. Wednesday will still be warm but a bit better on the humidity. Will probably not be sometime later Friday before the main push of cool air arrives for the weekend

The tropical system is also helping in keeping the front from moving very far south and even heading back on Thursday. This is really what has been forecast on this forum form several days and the models are just catching up. Still a nice shot of cooler and drier air this weekend but what happens with this kind of air mass this time of year is the longer you wait for it to move in the less potent it becomes and the temperatures tend to be a few degrees warmer than forecast earlier in the week. Still believe over the weekend 80-82 looks good and lows will probably be 63-65 Friday night and I believe we can still see upper 50's Sunday morning and maybe Monday morning before we start head back towards normal.

92 yesterday and again today IMBY.

Looks like the trends want to send us in to a dry period and the GFS is pushing back the MCS pattern further. Well, it is August and the tropics will be firing up now. Maybe we can cash in on the tropics down the road? My grass accomplished a lot over the last several weeks, I hate to see it go brown again!

CVG reached 92, DAY 91 and CMH 94 today.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 5:13 pm Looks like the trends want to send us in to a dry period and the GFS is pushing back the MCS pattern further. Well, it is August and the tropics will be firing up now. Maybe we can cash in on the tropics down the road? My grass accomplished a lot over the last several weeks, I hate to see it go brown again!

I hear you Joe! If it is cool and dry that is better then hot and dry. However, the 90s of course won't be done with us just yet unfortunately.

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2248 UNK Bellefontaine Logan OH 4036 8376 Reports of numerous trees down throughout Bellefontaine. Time estimated from RADAR. (ILN)

2255 UNK 1 SSW Kettlersville Shelby OH 4042 8427 Poles down on Amsterdam Road and McCartyville and Wells Road intersection. Time estimated from RADAR. (ILN)

2302 UNK Bellefontaine Logan OH 4036 8376 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from Bellefontaine. Reports of numerous trees down throughout Bellefontaine. Time estimated from RADAR. (ILN)

2304 UNK 4 NNW Sidney Shelby OH 4033 8419 Pole down on E. Mason Road and 29 intersection. Time estimated from RADAR. (ILN)

2315 UNK 5 NNW North Lewisburg Logan OH 4029 8358 Trees reported down in Middleburg. Time estimated from RADAR. (ILN)

This squall line is impressive with it’s very heavy rain!

I might cash in on some of the rain headed this way. That would be a nice surprise.

snowbo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 06, 2024 9:01 pm This squall line is impressive with it’s very heavy rain!

1.2” so far and still raining. Only expecting another tenth or two. All in 25 minutes.

Good morning all! Nice Bo! Glad to see you cash in! Nothing down here as expected. It fell apart when it entered the Tri-state. Pretty typical. The only good news is that temps start to come down and I have no 90s in the forecast over the next 7+ days. Even a taste of Fall is still on the table this weekend as we've talked about. I think that there is still a brief shower chance Friday, best chance in our Eastern counties with the strong cold front. The pattern still looks to turn active as we approach mid month but until then it looks boring for us.

Dews are dropping now with a NE wind in place. Dews were in the 70s, now down to 68 at CVG. We should be 8-10 degrees cooler for highs today as well. We'll shoot back up into the U80s ahead of Friday's cold front which brings us a taste of Fall and low dews this weekend. We will only slowly warm back up next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2024 7:36 am Dews are dropping now with a NE wind in place. Dews were in the 70s, now down to 68 at CVG. We should be 8-10 degrees cooler for highs today as well. We'll shoot back up into the U80s ahead of Friday's cold front which brings us a taste of Fall and low dews this weekend. We will only slowly warm back up next week.

Good Morning Les and the lower dew points will feel wonderful this weekend. No extended heat wave in the next week or two which is great. Rainfall though looks light as well but mid-August is usually a dry period for us anyway. The northern plains and upper mid-west really getting a nice shot of fall air and yes early for them as well. Will this be a early fall and of course the tropics will have a say but at the moment signs are pointing that way and will the tropics be aimed at the western GOM or the eastern GOM and that makes a big difference in terms of the weather around here.

With plenty of rain in the Carolina's and northward it makes it harder for the Bermuda High to gain control. Wet grounds just make it harder for the high to move in and stay.

Funny we started out in June like gangbusters and the summer forecast was going to be a very hot one. Yes we have been above normal but after the heat in June it has been normal around here.

Great post Tim! The dryness is pretty much climo from now thru October generally speaking. As long as the 90s stay away it won't be so bad. That remains to be seen how long the 90s stay away but as you said, at least we do get a break from them for a while. Hopefully we can get some moisture from the tropics down the road. That would be nice. No idea at this time if that happens or not. We watch and wait. I still do believe in the next 7-10 days or so, that the pattern will start to turn a little more active again. As usual, we'll see!

When referring to pattern getting active by mid month, are models showing anything like from Aug 16th onward? Just wondering because the Great Darke Co Fair e.g. will be Fri the 16th to Sat the 24th.