Absolute Vorticity

Les there is no doubt some clearing in western Kentucky and Tn and does this expand further northward. Even if we don't get into the sun I expect storms to fire as we have that front near and enough moisture around. Somebody will get hit with some strong and maybe severe weather and its nowcast. I will be here until about 2pm and then out the picture for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.

Nice little t-shower now with mod rain. Just had a nice lightning strike with booming thunder! Mother Nature providing some fireworks today! The cat is not a fan though lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:31 am Les there is no doubt some clearing in western Kentucky and Tn and does this expand further northward. Even if we don't get into the sun I expect storms to fire as we have that front near and enough moisture around. Somebody will get hit with some strong and maybe severe weather and its nowcast. I will be here until about 2pm and then out the picture for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.

Sounds good Tim! I'll be in and out monitoring the smoker for today but I am here all day otherwise to monitor the action. I sure feel much better now about doing my fireworks show on Saturday since the ground is finally getting dampened down good from the rain. I hit 80 before the rain started now down to 76. Got about 0.03" so far in the ole tippy bucket. I'll take it!

Updated totals for today:

CVG - 0.11"
Me - 0.10"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.10"

Just about 2 Inches here since 9:30 last night. Nice change for sure.

T-storm watch box issued for NKY and Central KY until 7pm. This does not include Boone, Kenton, and Campbell co's.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0505.html

For us... we are waiting to see if we can get any heating ahead of a weak surface low over West Central IN for re-development later this afternoon and evening. Shear looks good around 50 knots over IN but CAPE and most definitely lapse rates are questionable.

79 with a dew of 75 as of 4pm at CVG. The latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Through the next hour or so, the far southern locations in
northern Kentucky will remain under a SVR watch as a line of
storms moves through Kentucky. This area is still situated on
the apex of the better instability across central Kentucky.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat before thunderstorm
coverage decreases after 6 pm.

As the threat along the south decreases, attention will shift to
an increasing threat across eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and
southward toward the greater Cincinnati area. These locations
will still observe a few more hours of heating behind the line
of storms and associated anvil shield from the convective line
to the south. The question that lingers is whether or not the
boundary layer will recover enough to result in severe weather.
Given weak mid-level lapse rates, surface heating will be
especially critical for supporting strong updrafts. A weak
surface low will help to trigger an expanding area of showers
and thunderstorms due to the increased convergence within the
cyclonic flow. Depending on how much instability is available,
updrafts may be strong enough to take advantage of the
strengthening deep layer flow. This would support a few damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two with the more organized
storms. Even if the severe weather threat ultimately ends up
lower, there will still be decent coverage in shower and
storms, potentially lingering into the late evening hours.

Can`t rule out some locally heavy rainfall given the moisture
rich environment.

Behind the weak low pressure, drier conditions are expected
through the overnight with the primary frontal boundary still
well off the west. This will finally sweep through the area late
Friday.

1703 UNK 1 E Corydon Harrison IN 3821 8611 Trees down on a house. (LMK)

1705 3 WSW Crandall Harrison IN 3827 8611 A brief EF-0 tornado touched down along Highway 135 between Sky Aire Road and Highway 335. The tornado damaged trees and minor structures there ... before continuing ESE. (LMK)

1726 UNK 3 WSW Louisville Jefferson KY 3823 8580 Trees down and power poles snapped. (LMK)

1727 3 WSW Louisville Jefferson KY 3823 8580 NWS Storm Survey found a brief EF-1 tornado touched down and lasted about a half mile on the ground as it traveled east and east southeast. The tornado was wide at onset. (LMK)

2005 UNK 1 S Morehead Rowan KY 3818 8344 Rowan County dispatch reported a tree down on internet cables at the intersection of Knapp Ave and Cecil Drive. Time estimated from radar. (JKL)

2029 UNK Minor Rowan KY 3813 8326 Rowan County dispatch reported a tree blown down and blocking both lanes of KY-172 near the intersection with McGlone-Hitch Road. Time estimated from radar. (JKL)

2036 UNK Sandy Hook Elliott KY 3809 8313 Elliott County dispatch reported 1 tree down on KY-556 right outside the Sandy Hook city limits. Time estimated from radar. (JKL)

2148 UNK Hopkinsville Christian KY 3685 8749 Power outages. Wind speeds estimated 50 to 60 mph. Time estimated via radar. (PAH)

0044 3 ESE De Graff Logan OH 4029 8386 Brief EF0 tornado confirmed via video. Estimated wind speed of 65 mph from minor tree damage and thrown patio furniture. 0.17 mile track length. (ILN)

0046 UNK 3 ESE De Graff Logan OH 4029 8386 Tree damage. Possible weak tornado. (ILN)

0135 UNK 2 N Alexandria Licking OH 4012 8261 Multiple trees blown down. Time estimated from radar data. (ILN)

0152 UNK 6 WSW Utica Licking OH 4020 8255 Large branches down. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

0949 70 4 ENE Cadiz Trigg KY 3689 8776 (PAH)

CVG reached 84, DAY 83 and CMH 86 on Independence Day.

CVG is up to 82 now since we are seeing some sunshine. 82 also IMBY. A 1010 MB low is just south of IND so we'll have to wait and see if we have enough heating to spark additional t-storms late this afternoon and evening. Visible is showing a decent amount of sunshine to our west but will it be enough is the question? LI's look good with CAPE trying to recover. Bulk shear is good in excess of 40 nots but lapse rates are terrible so that will be a limiting factor. PWATS are over 2" so if anything can form, heavy rain is likely. A few showers are trying to get going over Central and SC Indiana so we will need to give it a couple more hours to see if we can get anything going or not. The latest HRRR does show a little bit of activity associated with the surface low in that 8-9pm window for the Metro then it's over so most folks should be able to get some fireworks in after dark tonight. As usual, we shall see! I hope we can get something down here. I'm at 0.60" for the 2 day event total so far and would like another half inch if possible. Thanks!

83 now IMBY as of 6pm, same at CVG. The low is just off to our NW now. CINH is finally gone so we'll see over the next 2 hours.

About 3.25 inches of rain in my rain gauge over the last two days. Not too bad. More storms forming off to the west at the moment. Looks hit or miss for most areas. Not the best looking line we've ever seen. We'll see.

Low man on totem pole .35” total event . Anybody want to trade rain gauges, I’ll pay for delivery charges . You may need to patch a few cracks in it upon delivery

Good morning all! One more chance today as we watch a batch off to our West this morning. It looks like along / S of the River has the best chance with this next batch sliding in. Hopefully it will hold together long enough. Then only scattered stuff is expected ahead of the front due in by sunset. Then we are dry until Tues of next week.

Good Morning and very foggy and muggy this morning. Ended up so far with 0.38 inches. More today and yes but how much and who gets a decent amount is still up in the air. The weekend looks great and next week what happens with the tropical system will determine somewhat the weather next week. If this system is able to get into Texas and head north/northeast I would expect some ridging early next week and we could see temps in the low 90's. If the system heads due west towards New Mexico then mid-upper 80's more the norm. The Euro has the remains coming directly into our area and the CMC showed this a few days ago but has backed off. Even if the system which would just be a nice low is able to head northeast this would add moisture to the area. Hopefully by Sunday we have a better ideal on that system

Both the NAM and HRRR show that area of rain / t-storms holding together and impacting the Metro around midday. I would say anytime after 11am we are fair game. We'll see but so far so good!

Looks correct Les and today was no doubt the best shot of widespread rainfall imo. Love to see ,5-1.0 over the next 6-8 hours.

Now hearing rumbles of thunder as this looks to be a period of moderate rain that will last a good 3-4 hours.

Been raining light to moderately along with some thunder and lightning here at The Dome for the last 90 mins. This is wonderful news!!!

Current totals for today:

CVG - 0.32"
Me - 0.25"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.15"

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:27 am Been raining light to moderately along with some thunder and lightning here at The Dome for the last 90 mins. This is wonderful news!!!

Current totals for today:

CVG - 0.32"
Me - 0.25"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.15"

Farmers and people with brown grass are happy! LOl

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:17 pm Farmers and people with brown grass are happy! LOl

You know I am!

Good Afternoon and got lucky with the last round of 0.48 so over 0.8 which is better that zero. Will watch development this afternoon but it does look more isolated in nature but later tonight and through the weekend a much nicer brand of weather

Final totals from the morning round:

CVG - 0.35"
Me - 0.28"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.17"

Watching some cells over Western IN. We'll see if anything can materialize this afternoon ahead of the front, which will pass thru this evening.

The Euro is very consistent on bringing some of Beryl's moisture our way come the middle of next week. Would love that to occur to get additional much needed rainfall. For the rest of today, a 50 / 50 chance until the front passes this evening.