Absolute Vorticity

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:06 pm Ouch, the extended GFS is looking hotter and hotter, the 594 looks to be building in big time!

I saw that in a couple of runs last week too. We'll just have to wait and see if we are on the edge of the heat (hope and pray LOL) or if the ridge builds in a little more like on the current GFS run. Also, I am still watching the tropics to see what kind of wrench they may throw into the forecast.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:16 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:06 pm Ouch, the extended GFS is looking hotter and hotter, the 594 looks to be building in big time!

I saw that in a couple of runs last week too. We'll just have to wait and see if we are on the edge of the heat (hope and pray LOL) or if the ridge builds in a little more like on the current GFS run. Also, I am still watching the tropics to see what kind of wrench they may throw into the forecast.

Guys great post and I believe one item will also help in deciding the other. When we get these tropical systems almost always a strong high nearby and that is probably what the model is seeing. I believe by early next week we may have a better handle on this. Not leaning either way and again to far in the future. Could be the gfs in the winter where it brings a nice cold shot but it takes several weeks to arrive and this could be the same with the current pattern. Again not saying yes or no but something to watch and also see if the Euro starts leaning that way then we have more concerns.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:16 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:06 pm Ouch, the extended GFS is looking hotter and hotter, the 594 looks to be building in big time!

I saw that in a couple of runs last week too. We'll just have to wait and see if we are on the edge of the heat (hope and pray LOL) or if the ridge builds in a little more like on the current GFS run. Also, I am still watching the tropics to see what kind of wrench they may throw into the forecast.

Guys great post and I believe one item will also help in deciding the other. When we get these tropical systems almost always a strong high nearby and that is probably what the model is seeing. I believe by early next week we may have a better handle on this. Not leaning either way and again to far in the future. Could be the gfs in the winter where it brings a nice cold shot but it takes several weeks to arrive and this could be the same with the current pattern. Again not saying yes or no but something to watch and also see if the Euro starts leaning that way then we have more concerns.

Guys, I agree...I hope we can cash in on the ring of fire for a bit before the heat really cranks up as time goes on! Except for mowing grass often lately, I've been loving the green grass, but I hope we don't go from feast to famine with brown grass!

Here in the retirement community neighborhood where my folks and I reside there's a brand new bocce ball court and my Dad and a friend of ours who lives down the street wanted to get a game in before the sky let loose. They both drove and met up but no dice as Ma Nature took over.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:32 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:16 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:06 pm Ouch, the extended GFS is looking hotter and hotter, the 594 looks to be building in big time!

I saw that in a couple of runs last week too. We'll just have to wait and see if we are on the edge of the heat (hope and pray LOL) or if the ridge builds in a little more like on the current GFS run. Also, I am still watching the tropics to see what kind of wrench they may throw into the forecast.

Guys great post and I believe one item will also help in deciding the other. When we get these tropical systems almost always a strong high nearby and that is probably what the model is seeing. I believe by early next week we may have a better handle on this. Not leaning either way and again to far in the future. Could be the gfs in the winter where it brings a nice cold shot but it takes several weeks to arrive and this could be the same with the current pattern. Again not saying yes or no but something to watch and also see if the Euro starts leaning that way then we have more concerns.

Guys, I agree...I hope we can cash in on the ring of fire for a bit before the heat really cranks up as time goes on! Except for mowing grass often lately, I've been loving the green grass, but I hope we don't go from feast to famine with brown grass!

Agreed fellas. We've got to cash in while we can because you know the heat eventually will come. It always does.

Hey Joe and that is one worry I believe many folks had and that is going from a spring with plenty of vegetation that continues to grow and then boom we get hit with a hot and dry summer. Hopefully that does not happen and with the expected number of tropical systems its a two way street and one being it brings up heights away from the tropical systems but also gives us a few chances of having one or two bring up tropical moisture. Usually by late June the pattern sets in place or at least gives us more clues for the remaining summer period.

Tim... you know my stance per our 90 degree days contest. I hope I'm wrong but so far from what I am seeing, the call is still looking good unfortunately.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:51 pm Tim... you know my stance per our 90 degree days contest. I hope I'm wrong but so far from what I am seeing, the call is still looking good unfortunately.

I know Les we both hate 90 degree days. Again are the 90's in the low 90's or the mid-upper 90's. I believe at first near 90 seems correct as we still have decent vegetation but if the faucet stops or gets clogged then we need to worry more. I ended up with near normal temps for the whole summer but I was looking at a few periods of hot weather but also some tropical systems that may help us in getting some decent rains once in awhile and hopefully if that is the case the vegetation can keep growing.

Just watching radar and reporting stations it looks like the cold front has slowed some today and does this mean we get a wet evening. I hope that is the case and hopefully the forcing along the front is enough to produce some widespread rains. Without the front we know the storms that build would die out quickly but with a front nearby they can last longer and even after dark. Yes the main energy is further to the north and the other pices that came through southern and eastern Kentucky is really moving quickly so that part helps imo.

The Bucket brigade has been notified of a possible call to duty in 5-7 days.

Storms well to our West, North, and East. A typical day in the OV.

Radar is pathetic.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 6:21 pm Radar is pathetic.

Unless I get lucky (yeah right ha-ha), I'll probably have to water my plants tomorrow.

CVG reached 82 and both DAY / CMH 83 today.

Good morning all! It looks like we had a nice line come thru around 10pm or so. Rainfall totals from my hood:

CVG - 0.26"
Me - 0.33"
Boone co Mesonet - 0..39"

Next up, is a small chance for a shower this afternoon. Most of you won't see anything. Best chance is up north. Then we stay in the 70s for highs Fri thru about Tues of next week with wonderful lows in the 50s! Rain chances are possible on Sunday with the best chance being up north closer to the upper low. Then, we bring on the 80s for the second half of next week. When do the 90s occur? We will have to watch out for that towards the end of next week and beyond.

Eastern counties got some soaking rains locally. 1.20” imby

0Z GEFS shows the core of the heat to our West after mid month so we'd be more susceptible to ridge riders or MCS's dropping in from the NW. The 0Z EPS has more of the ridge orientated from west to east and the vast majority of the country will be very warm to hot and that includes us so a much drier and hotter pattern. We shall see! Both models have the ridge well north of the Gulf so a tropical system could easily develop in the Gulf and move northward into the Gulf Coast states, I would not be surprised during the second half of June to see at least 1 tropical system develop in this pattern.

Good Morning and took all day yesterday to get in on the rain parade but a nice storm just after 10pm and ended up 1.22 inches. Just what the doctor ordered. I know some folks got much less but this is the nature of storms and yesterday I was lucky compared to the past couple of weeks where I was on the short end of the stick.

Les your forecast looks good and we just should enjoy the next week or so before more humidity and yes possible heat arrives for a stay.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:34 am Good Morning and took all day yesterday to get in on the rain parade but a nice storm just after 10pm and ended up 1.22 inches. Just what the doctor ordered. I know some folks got much less but this is the nature of storms and yesterday I was lucky compared to the past couple of weeks where I was on the short end of the stick.

Les your forecast looks good and we just should enjoy the next week or so before more humidity and yes possible heat arrives for a stay.

I wish MBY could have received more rain, but I'll take what I can get. It maybe a while before rains of that nature visit us again.

Les you can see where southern Kenton and Campbell county got hit compared to Boone County. Good thing is with cooler and drier air moving in the next few days some of that will soak in and if we can get lucky this weekend with a little more rain that would be nice as well. My guess late next week when the heat and humidity pushes north and east we may see another period of storms before the ridging takes control for a period of time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:12 am Les you can see where southern Kenton and Campbell county got hit compared to Boone County. Good thing is with cooler and drier air moving in the next few days some of that will soak in and if we can get lucky this weekend with a little more rain that would be nice as well. My guess late next week when the heat and humidity pushes north and east we may see another period of storms before the ridging takes control for a period of time.

I'm not too impressed with amounts this weekend, at least for our hoods. I think the best chance is to our north and south. Agree with you that we should get another round as the heat tries to build in. Hopefully that will pan out towards the end of next week.

Les we are on the same page for the extended. Last night some vivid lightning and thunder that seems to rumble for several minutes. Outside this morning and you can feel the difference in the humidity and only getting better the next few days. Maybe over the next several days can we get one more morning to get into the upper 40's. May guess Tuesday is the best day for that but most likely outlying areas while CVG hits 53. This may be the last chance to see 40's until September

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:30 am Les we are on the same page for the extended. Last night some vivid lightning and thunder that seems to rumble for several minutes. Outside this morning and you can feel the difference in the humidity and only getting better the next few days. Maybe over the next several days can we get one more morning to get into the upper 40's. May guess Tuesday is the best day for that but most likely outlying areas while CVG hits 53. This may be the last chance to see 40's until September

I agree Tim! A secondary front will pass this afternoon and the refreshing air will come in behind it to begin our 70s for highs and 50s for lows streak. Visible satellite clearly shows where that front is located. It is showing up as a band of clouds running from NW Ohio to north of KIND back into ILL. Dews will drop into the 50s once the front passes this afternoon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:27 am 0Z GEFS shows the core of the heat to our West after mid month so we'd be more susceptible to ridge riders or MCS's dropping in from the NW. The 0Z EPS has more of the ridge orientated from west to east and the vast majority of the country will be very warm to hot and that includes us so a much drier and hotter pattern. We shall see! Both models have the ridge well north of the Gulf so a tropical system could easily develop in the Gulf and move northward into the Gulf Coast states, I would not be surprised during the second half of June to see at least 1 tropical system develop in this pattern.

Good morning, Les...Hopefully the 0Z EPS is wrong and we do see a NW flow with MCS's in the OH valley! But we all know that the heat may be delayed but not denied down the road!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 9:17 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:27 am 0Z GEFS shows the core of the heat to our West after mid month so we'd be more susceptible to ridge riders or MCS's dropping in from the NW. The 0Z EPS has more of the ridge orientated from west to east and the vast majority of the country will be very warm to hot and that includes us so a much drier and hotter pattern. We shall see! Both models have the ridge well north of the Gulf so a tropical system could easily develop in the Gulf and move northward into the Gulf Coast states, I would not be surprised during the second half of June to see at least 1 tropical system develop in this pattern.

Good morning, Les...Hopefully the 0Z EPS is wrong and we do see a NW flow with MCS's in the OH valley! But we all know that the heat may be delayed but not denied down the road!

Good morning Joe! I've got my fingers and toes crossed. But I won't cross my eyes. Too painful!