Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tpweather]

Look like Debby is getting her act together. Probably gets to Hurricane 1 and maybe 2 status but the biggest problem for folks in the southeast will be flooding rains. This system looks to have staying power for several days and some models are showing 20-30 inches of rain near the Hilton Head area. My brother-n-law and his family are in the outer banks and he is probably in the central area and though plenty of rain there as well he may miss the heaviest which looks to be just south of that area. Another system out in the Atlantic as well so the tropical season which started out quick back in June has been slow for most of July but August is ramping up quickly.

At the moment the likely area for tropical systems is the eastern gulf coast and eastward. Part of that reason is the strong Bermuda Ridge out in the Atlantic that is forcing these storms inward plus the monsoon season in the southwest still having a hard time getting going and the ridge in the mountains is strong as well.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON MONDAY...
...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

[MVWxObserver]

From Sun ...

1625 2 W Bowling Green Hardee FL 2764 8185 NWS student volunteer spotter picture of tornado on ground. Location and time based on spotter position and radar warned tornado location. (TBW)

1705 UNK 2 N Lake Eustis Lake FL 2888 8173 Large tree down in yard with damage to powerlines. Additional damage to tree branches to the northwest towards CR-452. (MLB)

1758 4 SW Bartow Polk FL 2785 8188 Spotter video of tornado on ground for around 2 minutes. Location and time based on spotter position and radar warned tornado location. (TBW)

1847 UNK 1 W Key West Monroe FL 2456 8180 Reports of a tree down blocking the road. (KEY)

2045 60 5 SSE Islamorada GMZ052 FL 2485 8062 A southwest wind gust of 52 knots ... or 60 mph ... was measured by the Alligator Reef Light mesonet station at 1645 EDT. (KEY)

2200 1 ENE Redington Beach Pinellas FL 2782 8280 Damage to a fence and a trailer were reported by residents along with reports of a tornado touching down. (TBW)

2235 UNK 3 SW Cocoa Brevard FL 2835 8079 Damage to five RVs in the Sonrise Palms RV Park and a few toppled trees in the area. (MLB)

2340 5 WNW Dukes Union FL 2999 8250 Multiple public reports of a tornado on the ground northwest of Worthington Springs. Time estimated via reports and radar. (JAX)

2355 62 8 NNE Cocoa Beach Brevard FL 2844 8056 USSF wind sensor on tower 2 measured a wind gust of 62MPH/54KT from the south at 7:55 PM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet. (MLB)

2356 6 ESE Columbia Columbia FL 3005 8260 Columbia County EM reported an observed tornado on the ground off HWY 441 near Lake City Airpark. Time estimated via radar and report. (JAX)

2357 4 ESE Columbia Columbia FL 3006 8262 Florida spotter reports observed tornado crossing I-75 about 3-4 miles south of Lake City. Time estimated via report and radar. (JAX)

[tron777]

Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY NEARING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is
nearing landfall and the eastern portion of the eyewall is moving
onshore in the Florida Big Bend. An observation in Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h)
with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Looks like 10-20" of rain can be expected with isolated amounts of 30"+ from FL and into the Carolinas the week progresses due to the slow movement of Debby. Flooding is the biggest issue with this storm and will continue to be in the days to come.

[tpweather]

That is quite a bit of rain. Most of that area has been near or above normal for rainfall this year so no doubt some flooding is going to occur.

[tron777]

Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY JUST INLAND IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 83.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF LAKE CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and Debby is almost to a crawl and will slowly move east to the Ga/Sc coastline by Tuesday. Normally then you would see the storm head north or out to sea. What makes this storm interesting besides the amount of moisture but the Bermuda Ridge which has been strong over the Atlantic Ocean this summer is still having influence and I believe it gets stronger with the system south of the ridge and this is why you see some models especially the GFS pushing the storm back to the west. How far west is still a tough call but I do understand why and again sometimes the ridging is just as important as the storm in terms of who gets hit the hardest. I see Sarasosta has got over 13 inches of rainfall with many bands that have hit that area. So yes sometimes the marginal tropical systems can provide the most damage in terms of flooding because they stall out and we have seen this several times over the western GOM area but no so much in the Ga/Sc area.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and Debby is almost to a crawl and will slowly move east to the Ga/Sc coastline by Tuesday. Normally then you would see the storm head north or out to sea. What makes this storm interesting besides the amount of moisture but the Bermuda Ridge which has been strong over the Atlantic Ocean this summer is still having influence and I believe it gets stronger with the system south of the ridge and this is why you see some models especially the GFS pushing the storm back to the west. How far west is still a tough call but I do understand why and again sometimes the ridging is just as important as the storm in terms of who gets hit the hardest. I see Sarasosta has got over 13 inches of rainfall with many bands that have hit that area. So yes sometimes the marginal tropical systems can provide the most damage in terms of flooding because they stall out and we have seen this several times over the western GOM area but no so much in the Ga/Sc area.

Agreed Tim. Slow moving tropical systems can be just as bad (if not worse) then a stronger or faster moving system. Flooding will be the big story with Debby 100%.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Afternoon and Debby is almost to a crawl and will slowly move east to the Ga/Sc coastline by Tuesday. Normally then you would see the storm head north or out to sea. What makes this storm interesting besides the amount of moisture but the Bermuda Ridge which has been strong over the Atlantic Ocean this summer is still having influence and I believe it gets stronger with the system south of the ridge and this is why you see some models especially the GFS pushing the storm back to the west. How far west is still a tough call but I do understand why and again sometimes the ridging is just as important as the storm in terms of who gets hit the hardest. I see Sarasosta has got over 13 inches of rainfall with many bands that have hit that area. So yes sometimes the marginal tropical systems can provide the most damage in terms of flooding because they stall out and we have seen this several times over the western GOM area but no so much in the Ga/Sc area.

I have a cousin, whom she, her husband, and their daughter used to live in Sarasota. They're now residing in VA Beach.

Prayers and thoughts with all impacted. Sadly, so far Debby has claimed 4 lives.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

From Mon ...

0137 6 SSW Edisto Island Colleton SC 3248 8033 Colleton County Emergency Manager reported a sighted tornado on 2700 block of Palmetto Blvd. (CHS)

0137 4 SSW Edisto Island Colleton SC 3250 8030 Colleton County Emergency Manager reported a tornado sighted and a tree on a building on 133 Palmetto Blvd. (CHS)

0137 4 SSW Edisto Island Colleton SC 3250 8030 Colleton County Emergency Manager reported a sighted tornado on the 100 block of Jungle Road. (CHS)

0137 4 SW Edisto Island Colleton SC 3252 8032 Charleston County Dispatch reported a sighted tornado going over a residence's home on the 500 block of Fishing Creek Drive. Damage to the residence's porch was reported. (CHS)

0137 Kiawah Island Charleston SC 3261 8008 Social Media reported trees down at Burroughs Hall at Governors Drive due to Tropical Storm Debby. (CHS)

0138 4 SSW Edisto Island Charleston SC 3252 8031 Charleston County consolidated dispatch relayed a report of a sighted tornado touchdown on Outback Lane off Palmetto Road on Edisto Island. Numerous trees down. (CHS)

0140 4 SSW Edisto Island Colleton SC 3250 8030 Colleton County Emergency Manager reported a tornado sighted on 101 Palmetto Blvd. Also ... reported multiple trees down ... power lines down ... debris on roadways. (CHS)

0302 3 NW Kiawah Island Charleston SC 3265 8012 Public reported a couple of big trees down in their backyard at the 4700 block of River Road due to Tropical Storm Debby. (CHS)

0400 3 ENE Beaufort Beaufort SC 3246 8064 Media relayed a picture of a couple of trees down on 490 Sams Point Road due to Tropical Storm Debby. (CHS)

0654 2 ENE Moncks Corner Berkeley SC 3320 7998 Berkeley County EM reported a tornado on the eastern side of Moncks Corner. An Applebee's was damaged. Several trees and power poles were blown down ... some onto cars. (CHS)

0654 2 ENE Moncks Corner Berkeley SC 3321 7998 Social media video shows a tornado tracking across a portion of a car lot near the intersection of North US Highway 52 and Rembert Dennis Blvd. (CHS)

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...CENTER OF DEBBY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, GETTING CLOSER TO THE
COAST...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER
TODAY...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND
NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 81.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

From Tues ...

1430 UNK 3 ENE Brookdale Orangeburg SC 3353 8078 SCDPS reports a tree down over Till Rd near the intersection of Cameron Rd due to a thunderstorm embedded in Tropical Storm Debby. (CAE)

2006 59 1 N Sebastian Inlet State Park AMZ552 FL 2786 8044 The mesonet site at Sebastian Inlet reported a 59mph/51kt wind gust from the west-northwest. (MLB)

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 06 2024

...DEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY NEAR THE COASTS OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 80.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES