Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:45 am**

4am totals:

CVG - 0.34"
Me - 0.58"
Boone co mesonet - 0.91"

Still looking like an inch coming from our next system too. Drought concerns are easing.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:46 am**

SPS out for all posters:

...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING...

Areas of fog are reducing visibility to less than 1 mile in parts
of the area. In addition, some patchy dense fog is embedded in the
fog with visibilities reduced to a quarter mile or less.

Motorists should exercise extra caution. Be prepared for changes
in visibility along your route. Slow down and leave a little extra
time to get to your destination. The visibility will improve
towards mid to late morning.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 6:13 am**

Per the Aussies, the MJO was in Phase 3, getting close to Phase 4 on 3/4. So we are probably in Phase 4 now. This is why I think we get that brief cooler period after mid month. All the Ensembles have a deep trough over the East. Nice +PNA pattern with some ridging into AK and Greenland also. If we are going to see some late season flakes, this would be the time to do it. Otherwise, it will be a period of cooler weather that should slow spring down a but since we are 3 weeks ahead of schedule as it is.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:26 am**

0.96" now as of 7am at CVG. Half of that came within the last hour. The front slowing way down has truly helped out our Southern forecast area which is great news!

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:49 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:26 am 0.96" now as of 7am at CVG. Half of that came within the last hour. The front slowing way down has truly helped out our Southern forecast area which is great news!

Les turned out to be a much broader area of heavier rain and no doubt is good news. Expect the next system to provide another round of decent rain. Hopefully the plains will start to get in on some decent rains because if they happen to miss out spring and summer can come early in those places and drought west of us can spread eastward over time. We are lucky where we live and longer term droughts seldom happen but further west that is not the case and that is why Texas can have a severe drought for a couple of years and then a couple of years of flooding because of to much rainfall. Last year we had some decent rains in the winter but we then became drier and drier as the year went on. Hopefully this year is different and again we have seen over the past 20 years of so the average rainfall has gone up in many areas near us. Maybe we average 1-2 inches more rainfall than the previous 20 years so we always need to look at the weather and yes climate in a broader sense.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:09 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:49 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:26 am 0.96" now as of 7am at CVG. Half of that came within the last hour. The front slowing way down has truly helped out our Southern forecast area which is great news!
Les turned out to be a much broader area of heavier rain and no doubt is good news. Expect the next system to provide another round of decent rain. Hopefully the plains will start to get in on some decent rains because if they happen to miss out spring and summer can come early in those places and drought west of us can spread eastward over time. We are lucky where we live and longer term droughts seldom happen but further west that is not the case and that is why Texas can have a severe drought for a couple of years and then a couple of years of flooding because of to much rainfall. Last year we had some decent rains in the winter but we then became drier and drier as the year went on. Hopefully this year is different and again we have seen over the past 20 years of so the average rainfall has gone up in many areas near us. Maybe we average 1-2 inches more rainfall than the previous 20 years so we always need to look at the weather and yes climate in a broader sense.

1.04" now at CVG! I'd sure love to see a wetter summer this year. Been a while since we've had above normal precip during the summer months. To me, that would be a welcome change. A developing Nina would say otherwise though so I'm not going to hold my breath on this one lol

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:14 am**

Regional totals as of 7am . 1.00” for mby

IMG_1528.jpeg

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:19 am**

I'm glad to see a lot of areas who have been getting the shaft, cashing in with this event! The next event will certainly bring us back where we need to be. Then, we get a cooling trend in the long range which should help to keep some of this moisture locked in. I'm pretty pleased with how March has been going so far.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 9:08 am**

1.07" now at CVG as of 9am.

EDIT: 1.08" as of 10am.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:54 am**

Rain slowly moving away and by this afternoon should be rain free locally. A nice dose of rainfall and we get about a 48 hour or so break before the next system arrives and again looks to be an extended period of rainfall so more to soak into the ground.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:58 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:54 am Rain slowly moving away and by this afternoon should be rain free locally. A nice dose of rainfall and we get about a 48 hour or so break before the next system arrives and again looks to be an extended period of rainfall so more to soak into the ground.

Low track will be key. 1" easy if the SE track from the Euro is right. GFS keeps the low NW of us on Sat but over time, it is slowly heading in the Euro's direction IMO. Unless the Euro changes, I am going with the low tracking SE of us on Sat delivering mod to hvy rainfall.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:00 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:58 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:54 am Rain slowly moving away and by this afternoon should be rain free locally. A nice dose of rainfall and we get about a 48 hour or so break before the next system arrives and again looks to be an extended period of rainfall so more to soak into the ground.
Low track will be key. 1" easy if the SE track from the Euro is right. GFS keeps the low NW of us on Sat but over time, it is slowly heading in the Euro's direction IMO. Unless the Euro changes, I am going with the low tracking SE of us on Sat delivering mod to hvy rainfall.

I agree Les and even if it were to be more northwest we would have a chance for scattered thundershowers that can bring heavy rain in a short period of time but of course more scattered. I like the 1 inch plus call and this occurs getting over 2 inches in 5 days or so is not a bad way to start March

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:42 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:00 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:58 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:54 am Rain slowly moving away and by this afternoon should be rain free locally. A nice dose of rainfall and we get about a 48 hour or so break before the next system arrives and again looks to be an extended period of rainfall so more to soak into the ground.
Low track will be key. 1" easy if the SE track from the Euro is right. GFS keeps the low NW of us on Sat but over time, it is slowly heading in the Euro's direction IMO. Unless the Euro changes, I am going with the low tracking SE of us on Sat delivering mod to hvy rainfall.
I agree Les and even if it were to be more northwest we would have a chance for scattered thundershowers that can bring heavy rain in a short period of time but of course more scattered. I like the 1 inch plus call and this occurs getting over 2 inches in 5 days or so is not a bad way to start March

Not at all, Tim! We really needed this after the dry summer, fall, and winter we have seen the last 6-9 months.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 1:19 pm**

For Sat... the 12Z Euro is still SE with the low track and that fits with my forecast ideas. If you are going to get an inch out of this next system, then we need the SE solution to be correct. Otherwise if the low is NW of us, the rain will be more scattered. Dry slot concerns too.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:55 pm**

Good Afternoon and get a break on Thursday from the rain and then we have a few rounds of rainfall starting Friday through Saturday.Exactly how this plays out can be the difference of around 1/2 inch to 3 inches. Big range but it will depend on the second wave which looks to be the strongest and where the heaviest rain falls from that wave. I believe at this point 1- 1 1/2 inches is a good call but as this develops over the next 24-36 hours we will need to see exactly how everything is shaping up.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:20 pm**

12Z GEFS Mean has 1" upcoming. 12Z Euro had 1.25" for CVG. I like the 1" call that you guys laid out previously. I'm on board.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:35 pm**

Les it looks like the system has some decent lift and the jet looks really strong in the Friday night Saturday morning period. Depending on the exact tract somebody looks to get hit hard with overnight rains and we are getting into the springtime where those rains especially towards daybreak can yield some decent amounts. The trough looks like it may become tilted negative and when that happens systems become stronger. Again at this point I am going with 1- 1/1/2 inches but will look and see how things shape up in the next 24-36 hours and I believe somebody in the Ohio Valley will more and likely approach the 3 inch mark.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:35 pm**

I think we have a good deal of wiggle room as far as a good soaker for the whole region Saturday. With how slow the system is moving, should have no problem getting to at least the .75” range on the low end

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:58 pm**

18Z GFS continues the northern and stronger solution. 0.82" at CVG so that proves Bgoney's point.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 5:34 pm**

Another 1.15 in the gauge. 2.75 total the last two days.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 6:07 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:58 pm 18Z GFS continues the northern and stronger solution. 0.82" at CVG so that proves Bgoney's point.

I believe its a one two punch and somebody who gets in on the main action from both will do well. Still 36 hours before anything near us but this should be fun to watch since we have not had the two jets hook up much this winter/early spring. Will watch the models and see which way they go in terms of rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours or so. Btw could even see a flake of two of snow later Saturday but again nothing that will cause any problems just some cold air coming in before all the precip has ended.

Posted: **Wed Mar 06, 2024 6:26 pm**

Just looked at the precip totals from the models and I believe they are missing the two jets getting together later Friday. If they do not join and then I understand totals near an inch makes sense but I am counting on this system to merge later that day and that is why I believe some much higher totals are available. Tons of moisture available but will this combine over the Ohio Valley to give someone a really nice dose. Even if we stay on the lower side of an inch its still a good week in terms of rainfall

Posted: **Thu Mar 07, 2024 12:30 am**

CVG got to 59, DAY 58 and CMH 56 on Wed.

Posted: **Thu Mar 07, 2024 4:31 am**

Good morning and Happy Thursday to you all!

Rainfall totals at CVG for this next system:

6Z NAM - 1.27"
0Z GFS - 0.57"
0Z Euro - 1.27"
0Z GEFS - 0.86"

We get a dry period after this with a slow warming trend. Fantasy Range is looking colder and dare I say, a snow chance or two perhaps?

We'll see.... but below normal temps is growing. 50 is our current normal high at CVG so by mid month, low to mid 50s are probably the avg by then. Are 40s below normal highs or can we see anything colder for snow in the 30s? Stay tuned...

Posted: **Thu Mar 07, 2024 6:34 am**

Per the Aussies, we crossed over into MJO Phase 4 on 3/5. We came out of Phase 3. Phases 3 and 4 in March are cold. Phase 5 is even slightly above avg. Phase 6 is a big torch. 7 is slightly below avg. Phase 8 is warm. So again... the MJO getting into Phase 4 now would promote some cold after 3/15. I am watching for one or two blasts of cooler air and maybe some flakes from 3/15 on. Once we get past this period... then we are probably done and it'll be spring time. Teleconnections still show a +PNA, -EPO, -AO and -NAO period upcoming that could last for a week. A major SSW has been occurring too which should add to a weak PV one more time. PV should be on our ide of the globe too this go around. We'll see. We may just end up getting a cold rain and 40 degrees, which is below avg. March can be an interesting month. 20s to 80s for temps. along with severe wx and snow for precip. We have seen and done it all in March.

Absolute Vorticity

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