Absolute Vorticity

GFS caved south as well....

Along with the south trend , models are shrinking qpf totals during the window for snow accumulation and that would probably mean intensity of precip or dbz would be lighter or for a shorter period, at least on the western edge of the precip shield. For now the eastern edge looks safe

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 4:38 pm CB has pulled the winter storm trigger:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63874

I think he pulled the trigger back on July 16th

Latest NBM

18z Eu about the same as 12z

00z HRRR…

It’s comical at this point it really is…

I can’t remember the last time we saw such a swing in the models this close to an event. Wild.

Great call on the title, Les

Assuming guidance holds overnight ILN will drop the advisories.

Hilarious

00z GFS continues the bump south. That’s a wrap folks.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2024 10:52 pm 00z GFS continues the bump south. That’s a wrap folks.

Let’s just get to spring asap. This winter has just been one joke after another.

Well ILN can trim away the WWA.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:01 am Well ILN can trim away the WWA.

They may wait until the morning to see if there are any corrections back north before pulling the plug.

06z HRRR shifted north but not enough to make a difference locally. More so saying that to show that models shifting multiple rows of counties from run to run this close to the event is wild!

Unbelievable... but this looks like an LOU CWA event now and I mean that for Lexington. LOU itself may also get the shaft. Definitely looking like this ones a wrap for our hoods.

So I guess the answer to the question posed by the thread title is.... a last second model shift to the south. The question needs to be asked each time for each event, since we get screwed every time, just in a different way.

No surprise here... latest thinking from the boys:

Hi-res models have delayed the onset of rain with this low
pressure system, with the bulk of rainfall holding off until
this evening. However, we may begin to observe rainfall by the
late afternoon in our northern KY counties.

The biggest message for the Monday night system is that hi-res
guidance continues to show a southeastward trend in regards to
snow accumulations. There remains the potential for strong
deformation on the northwest side of this low, tied to the
enhanced frontogenetic forcing. This band has continued to shift
further south and east, which is tied to where the highest snow
potential exists. As has been mentioned, there are also many
other variables that have factored into the snow amount
potential for our counties. This includes how rapid the
changeover to snow will occur as thermal profiles cool
overnight. More intense precip rates would aid in a faster
transition to snowfall given the strong dynamic cooling. Another
factor is the warm, antecedent ground temperatures during the
daytime hours Monday, with guidance suggesting pavement
temperatures could climb into the 60s, perhaps even near 70.
This will certainly reduce accumulations as rain changes over to
snow. SLR`s remain around 7:1 or 8:1 through majority of this
event, leading to wetter snow.

Given the overall trends in hi-res model guidance, have expanded
the Advisory to include Adams, Scioto and Lewis counties.
Further west, snow amounts have started to trend down a fair
amount. There will certainly be a sharp gradient in snow
accumulations, with the highest amounts more favored in our far
southeastern counties where the Advisory was expanded to.

Good Morning and at the end of the day it looks like the CMC wins the battle of the models in terms of long term models. It was always the furthest east and did move westward but not so far where it looked like the gfs and euro. Can we still get snow and sure but again it may not reach any further than say I-71. Again now cast as these systems can still throw surprises at the last minute but the amount of time its snowing has also decreased so getting and more than say 2 inches locally is almost impossible.

I'm thinking more along the lines of 0 to a covering for the Metro and anything in that 1" plus range should be left to our extreme SE counties to obtain.

12Z HRRR is pretty much a swing and a miss for most posters now.

Any update gor Louisville/Lexington?

MattD41 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:31 am Any update gor Louisville/Lexington?

Louisville looks to be out of the game. Lexington still has potential though

12Z NAM still showing Central KY on East in the game. The vast majority of us will be on the outside looking in for this event. Seems to be the story of this winter for the most part.

We might not even get rain. Oh well.