Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:37 am**

At this point a couple of inches would be a treat.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:48 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:21 am 12Z GFS has 0.05" for wave 1 on MLK and an additional 0.14" for wave 2 on Tues.

Les, at this point I'd be happy with a 2–3 inch snow fall that the GFS is showing for us with the high ratios. That would be the most snow I've seen since that surprise 5 inch from late last January wet snow!

Edit: Matt it looks like you beat me to it with being satisfied with a couple of inches!

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:59 am**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:48 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:21 am 12Z GFS has 0.05" for wave 1 on MLK and an additional 0.14" for wave 2 on Tues.
Les, at this point I'd be happy with a 2–3 inch snow fall that the GFS is showing for us with the high ratios. That would be the most snow I've seen since that surprise 5 inch from late last January wet snow!

Edit: Matt it looks like you beat me to it with being satisfied with a couple of inches!

I agree fellas.... I'm just waiting to see which model camp wins out before I throw any numbers out. If I had to though, the likely call would be a 1-3" deal... however this is true arctic air so it tends to ring out every last drop of available moisture. The potential of getting something in excess of 3" is still there so I cannot issue an official forecast as of yet.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:03 pm**

GEFs more south with precip shield, around .10” or less for region

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:06 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:35 am FWIW, the 12Z ICON has been another model showing the 1 storm deal and it's a nice hit too! Wonder if the UKIE will still show the 1 wave deal like it has been or does it cave to the GFS and Euro solutions?

There you go. Cave. Went a little south. Not sure if is this is one wave or two waves.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:06 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:03 pm GEFs more south with precip shield, around .10” or less for region

The Ensembles have certainly been south of the OP's since the beginning. Hopefully that isn't a "writing is on the wall" type of thing.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:06 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:59 am
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:48 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:21 am 12Z GFS has 0.05" for wave 1 on MLK and an additional 0.14" for wave 2 on Tues.
Les, at this point I'd be happy with a 2–3 inch snow fall that the GFS is showing for us with the high ratios. That would be the most snow I've seen since that surprise 5 inch from late last January wet snow!

Edit: Matt it looks like you beat me to it with being satisfied with a couple of inches!
I agree fellas.... I'm just waiting to see which model camp wins out before I throw any numbers out. If I had to though, the likely call would be a 1-3" deal... however this is true arctic air so it tends to ring out every last drop of available moisture. The potential of getting something in excess of 3" is still there so I cannot issue an official forecast as of yet.

Yeah, I'm hoping for every drop of moisture, but I admit that the snow wienie in me will continue to look at the models and read here all of everyone's fine analysis better potential.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:09 pm**

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:06 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:35 am FWIW, the 12Z ICON has been another model showing the 1 storm deal and it's a nice hit too! Wonder if the UKIE will still show the 1 wave deal like it has been or does it cave to the GFS and Euro solutions?
There you go. Cave.

That's still pretty good...remember ratios will be much higher then your standard 10:1. However, I agree, it is step towards the two wave idea. We get a lot of snow events that are two parters so it's pretty common in the OV. I think the real question is... how long does it take the second piece to come out? The faster, the better to catch up to the first piece so to speak. The more separation between the two waves, the more everything is going to get suppressed to the south and east thanks to the incoming monster arctic high.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:16 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:09 pm
dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:06 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:35 am FWIW, the 12Z ICON has been another model showing the 1 storm deal and it's a nice hit too! Wonder if the UKIE will still show the 1 wave deal like it has been or does it cave to the GFS and Euro solutions?
There you go. Cave.
That's still pretty good...remember ratios will be much higher then your standard 10:1. However, I agree, it is step towards the two wave idea. We get a lot of snow events that are two parters so it's pretty common in the OV. I think the real question is... how long does it take the second piece to come out? The faster, the better to catch up to the first piece so to speak. The more separation between the two waves, the more everything is going to get suppressed to the south and east thanks to the incoming monster arctic high.

It's a step to the south, I still think we have a shot at a decent storm. Someplace in Kentucky, in by opinion, is going to get slammed with this storm. Ratios will, obviously, be very high. I think double digit snowfall somewhere in Kentucky. Whether or not decent accumulations make it into AV land, obviously, remains to be seen. But the pieces are there for Ohio to get a decent hit even if this ends up staying south.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:25 pm**

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:16 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:09 pm
dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:06 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 11:35 am FWIW, the 12Z ICON has been another model showing the 1 storm deal and it's a nice hit too! Wonder if the UKIE will still show the 1 wave deal like it has been or does it cave to the GFS and Euro solutions?
There you go. Cave.
That's still pretty good...remember ratios will be much higher then your standard 10:1. However, I agree, it is step towards the two wave idea. We get a lot of snow events that are two parters so it's pretty common in the OV. I think the real question is... how long does it take the second piece to come out? The faster, the better to catch up to the first piece so to speak. The more separation between the two waves, the more everything is going to get suppressed to the south and east thanks to the incoming monster arctic high.
It's a step to the south, I still think we have a shot at a decent storm. Someplace in Kentucky, in by opinion, is going to get slammed with this storm. Ratios will, obviously, be very high. I think double digit snowfall somewhere in Kentucky. Whether or not decent accumulations make it into AV land, obviously, remains to be seen. But the pieces are there for Ohio to get a decent hit even if this ends up staying south.

The best area right now to me is S of I-64 in KY and even TN is certainly in the game especially the Western half of the state.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:50 pm**

even if it does stay south like that. it sure is a pretty good swath of snow for much of Kentucky

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm**

From what I hear, the 12Z Euro is a complete whiff for everybody, even folks to the south.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm From what I hear, the 12Z Euro is a complete whiff for everybody, even folks to the south.

I just saw that HAHAH! What the heck is going on! lol

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:59 pm**

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm From what I hear, the 12Z Euro is a complete whiff for everybody, even folks to the south.
I just saw that HAHAH! What the heck is going on! lol

The flow is so flat! Too much confluence shears the thing apart.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:17 pm**

Yep , EU and EPS similar with its trend continuing to bleed south. EPS mean Qpf down to , and I’m being generous, is around .05” or less for our region

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:21 pm**

Wow... it's hard to believe that we could be going into this arctic outbreak with bare ground. It's happened before though. We've been on a bad streak of luck in terms of snowfall.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:31 pm**

I'll just say I'm glad I put a "?" in the title of this thread lol

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:31 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:59 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm From what I hear, the 12Z Euro is a complete whiff for everybody, even folks to the south.
I just saw that HAHAH! What the heck is going on! lol
The flow is so flat! Too much confluence shears the thing apart.

EU continues that flat look in the extended. That wouldn’t even be a clipper pattern but we’ll see if that can change in the days to come

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:32 pm**

He doesn't give up....I guess I kind of admire that

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63270

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:35 pm**

Great news this afternoon and its some of the models are just out of whack. I am not the best model watcher but I watch energy out in the pacific and a few pieces from Sunday through all of next week are nice. Do we get one piece at a time or can we get two combining.

Since I seldom ever base my forecasts on models I believe for the period late Sunday night through Tuesday that locally and that is 25 miles either side of CVG we end up in the 3-6 inch range. Will there be a cutoff of accumulation and sure just like with all systems. The further north and west the more likely you see less but not even 0 towards Indy. Better chance of higher accumulations to the south and maybe but again we just may see a nice general area of 3-6 in a broader area.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:38 pm**

DJKuo wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:31 pm I'll just say I'm glad I put a "?" in the title of this thread lol

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:39 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:31 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:59 pm
mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:57 pm From what I hear, the 12Z Euro is a complete whiff for everybody, even folks to the south.
I just saw that HAHAH! What the heck is going on! lol
The flow is so flat! Too much confluence shears the thing apart.
EU continues that flat look in the extended. That wouldn’t even be a clipper pattern but we’ll see if that can change in the days to come

Yep. the last couple of runs looked good in the extended too. Sometimes, I really hate this hobby of mine LOL But I always come back for more.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:41 pm**

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:32 pm He doesn't give up....I guess I kind of admire that

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63270

Never! Gotta keep those clicks and snow weenies happy!

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:43 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:35 pm Great news this afternoon and its some of the models are just out of whack. I am not the best model watcher but I watch energy out in the pacific and a few pieces from Sunday through all of next week are nice. Do we get one piece at a time or can we get two combining.

Since I seldom ever base my forecasts on models I believe for the period late Sunday night through Tuesday that locally and that is 25 miles either side of CVG we end up in the 3-6 inch range. Will there be a cutoff of accumulation and sure just like with all systems. The further north and west the more likely you see less but not even 0 towards Indy. Better chance of higher accumulations to the south and maybe but again we just may see a nice general area of 3-6 in a broader area.

I do think the Euro should correct back north some, but it does bother me all the same that the Ensembles (GEFS and EPS) have been weaker and south the entire time. That is a warning sign to me. I choose to ignore it the other day hoping to see the Ensembles make a come back, but it hasn't happened.

EDIT: We saw the beginnings of the UKIE caving today. The only really cranked up model we have left is the Canadian. It does better with northern shortwaves though and not STJ waves. Wouldn't it be something if it scored?

In all honesty though, we should expect it to begin caving soon.

Posted: **Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:03 pm**

Les have you seen the piece of energy coming into the pacific northwest. Rather strong with blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings. The mountains once the core of the system gets there models have major problems especially the northern rockies. They tend to make the storm weaker than it should be coming out of the mountains. All we need is around .15-.30 total for that period to get 3-6 inches. I feel very good about the call and hope once we get past the storm on Friday the models wake up lol. Sure there is dry air to the north and that is part of the equation as always but I believe the system south of us will throw enough moisture over the cold air to get those totals.

Absolute Vorticity

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