Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:24 pm LOU and JKL have wind advisories issued for their respective CWA's.

Yes they do. I’d be shocked if ILN doesn’t go HWW. Even LOU may have to upgrade as well.

Oh, I wouldn't be surprised either. Less rain and more wind is certainly the trends on todays guidance.

46 beautiful degrees here on the east side

44 as of 1pm at CVG. 12Z Euro coming in with 0.46" of rain for CVG and 0.03" of QPF for back end snow.

The boys went with the wind advisory only Trev.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern
Kentucky and central, south central and southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Friday to 8 AM EST Saturday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:58 pm The boys went with the wind advisory only Trev.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern
Kentucky and central, south central and southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Friday to 8 AM EST Saturday.

I agree with this but I may have extended it until the noon hour. They are caught in the middle here and went the safer route and probably the most likely outcome

Updated AFD from the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The biggest story for Friday will be the approaching low
pressure system that is expected to undergo rapid strengthening.
Rapid pressure falls will classify this low pressure as a bomb
cyclone given that will observe a 24mb pressure decline within
a 24hr period, highlighting the strength of this system. As the
low pressure strengthens and begins its track up through the
Midwest region, rain will begin to overspread the region Friday
morning. It will certainly be a cold rain as temperatures during
the onset of rainfall will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s,
but thermal soundings are supportive of rain being the primary
p-type. Could have a brief mix in our northern counties to start
before a quick transition to rain occurs.

Low level inversion will be present in the morning with the
onset of rainfall. This will limit the wind speeds to start the
day before we observe a notable increase. As the inversion
begins to erode and the low pressure center approaches
(tightening the surface pressure gradient), surface winds will
increase. Consistent guidance has warranted the issuance of a
Wind Advisory across our entire CWA, which will persist through
Friday night based on the track of the low.

There could be a window of enhanced winds during the late
afternoon/evening timeframe across our CWA as CAMs show a small
dry slot forming, along with a pseudo convective line. There
are some pockets of very marginal instability that build in
ahead of this line, but the overall moisture (dewpoints in the
low to mid 40s) and very low instability doesn`t favor
thunderstorm development. However, will have to monitor for
local enhancements of winds within this line, which could reach
High Wind Warning/Severe Thunderstorm Warning criteria.

Strong winds continue Friday night, but there will be a subtle
weakening trend by the late overnight hours. While the heaviest
precip will have ended, there will be a transition to snow given
the strong CAA with any lingering precip. Some light
accumulations are possible with this snow, mainly NW of I-71.
Accumulations of less than 1" expected (with majority of
locations receiving under 0.5" in our CWA).

Could be some small hail with showers along the cold front late tomorrow

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:16 pm Could be some small hail with showers along the cold front late tomorrow

The drive home tomorrow will be awful that is for sure. Mod to heavy rain and strong winds are pretty much a lock at this point. May as well get some hail too. Why the hell not?

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:46 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:16 pm Could be some small hail with showers along the cold front late tomorrow

The drive home tomorrow will be awful that is for sure. Mod to heavy rain and strong winds are pretty much a lock at this point. May as well get some hail too. Why the hell not?

The hell you say

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:46 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:16 pm Could be some small hail with showers along the cold front late tomorrow

The drive home tomorrow will be awful that is for sure. Mod to heavy rain and strong winds are pretty much a lock at this point. May as well get some hail too. Why the hell not?

The hell you say

LOL! Tues morning was a tough drive in and so was the drive home. I think the drive in tomorrow is okay but coming home tomorrow afternoon and evening is going to be tough. I wish I was old enough to retire so I could watch it from my window! I'm not giving up yet either Tim. I continue to hunt for a work from home gig. I keep getting a lot of rejections but I am one stubborn SOB as you know.

I am am down in the Jonesboro area and Weather Channel is claiming Tercon 5. Anyone see this in their opinion?

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:58 pm The boys went with the wind advisory only Trev.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern
Kentucky and central, south central and southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Friday to 8 AM EST Saturday.

I mean that is the highest level wind advisory you can have before a warning so I’ll agree with that. May need an upgrade per their disco.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:46 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:16 pm Could be some small hail with showers along the cold front late tomorrow

The drive home tomorrow will be awful that is for sure. Mod to heavy rain and strong winds are pretty much a lock at this point. May as well get some hail too. Why the hell not?

HAIL YES! as Kelly Thundercloud would say.

cincy bud wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:14 pm I am am down in the Jonesboro area and Weather Channel is claiming Tercon 5. Anyone see this in their opinion?

Take care bro and be safe.

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Prayerfully people won't lose any shingles e.g. with this wind blitz system.

SVR t-storm warnings in the Jonesboro, AR area where cincy bud is.

Snow storm is just getting underway across the Midwest. Meanwhile a deepening low over MO is slinging heavy rainfall in our direction which will arrive later on this morning. Winds will increase also becoming very windy for the POM commute as I've mentioned. Be safe everyone! Hope your power (and mine) stays on as the arctic tundra begins tomorrow.

Louisville Office upgraded to HWW. I'm sure ILN will too at some point today.

My Aunt in Northern Lower Michigan has been upgraded to a blizzard warning! NWS APX (Gaylord, MI) is expecting 10-15" with localized amounts of 18" along with winds gusting 50-60 mph! LES will be kicking in behind the big synoptic system also.

From the boys regarding the wind:


.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Strong 5H wind max of 110+kts to rotate around the base of a
trof over the southern plains and lift northeast thru the Lower
MS Valley today and into the Ohio Valley tonight. Mid level trof
axis to take on a negative tilt with associated deep surface
low pressure ejecting northeast and further deepening as it
moves to a position over northern Indiana by evening.

Strong low level jet of 75-80kts ahead of this low will offer
favorable moisture transport with widespread rain overspreading
the area from west to east between 14Z and 18Z. Rainfall totals
thru tonight to range from a good half inch in the northeast to
around 1.25 inches in the far west.

Winds will increase through the morning and will reach sustained
values of 20 to 25 mph and begin to gust to 35-40 mph toward
midday. The winds will continue to increase with gusts in excess
of 45 mph late in the day and then up to 55 mph tonight.

There looks to be two potential wind maxima with this system.
The first mainly across ILN/s south where convective linear
features could enhance mixing near the front late in the day
into the early evening potentially bringing strong winds to the
surface.

The second is associated with synoptic winds increasing with
the arrival of CAA this evening into the overnight. Wind gusts
look to increase across the entire area with solid advisory
criteria expected of 50 to 55 mph with the strongest winds
tonight across West Central Ohio. Isolated gusts could be close
to 50 KT/58 MPH warning criteria in the northwest counties.

Regarding ILN/s philosophy for handling messaging with this
wind event. If wind gusts of 58+ mph are going to be within
generally 30 minutes either side of a broken line of convection,
we will handle this with severe thunderstorm warnings (whether
the activity has lightning or not) given the small temporal
scale of the warning level gusts. However, if observations and
trends suggest that the potential for 58+ mph gusts could exist
for more than generally an hour in any location, an upgrade to a
short term (1-3 hour) high wind warning may be needed.
Therefore we plan on holding the wind advisory today into
tonight.

On the warm side of the system temperatures look to top out
from the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast.

flood watches up for my area

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:21 am flood watches up for my area

Yeah... back to back monster cutters are no good for your area especially since you had a nice snowpack going into all of this. Stay safe my friend! Hopefully you don't have to travel or if you do, it is local.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:13 am My Aunt in Northern Lower Michigan has been upgraded to a blizzard warning! NWS APX (Gaylord, MI) is expecting 10-15" with localized amounts of 18" along with winds gusting 50-60 mph! LES will be kicking in behind the big synoptic system also.

wow thats nice. they dont get this type storm all that often so enjoy it for sure. id be thrilled and excited in anticipation

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:13 am My Aunt in Northern Lower Michigan has been upgraded to a blizzard warning! NWS APX (Gaylord, MI) is expecting 10-15" with localized amounts of 18" along with winds gusting 50-60 mph! LES will be kicking in behind the big synoptic system also.

wow thats nice. they dont get this type storm all that often so enjoy it for sure. id be thrilled and excited in anticipation

No doubt! I'm jealous that I'm not there to witness it lol

The sky looks eerily mysterious before the big storm today