Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
This is exactly correct and the main driver for the differences between the globals. Good eye.Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:14 am I see the difference now with the 500mb vorticity in regards to sat-sun night. For us to cash in the upper level trough has to turn negative just east of the Mississippi. Gfs operational depicts this well. Euro operational is just a tad farther east when it goes negative. We have plenty of time to watch this unfold.
I didn't think of it as being a Miller C. Forgot about those lol Good graphic too explaining what a Miller C really is. You need to post more often! You always have good posts too that we all can learn from.Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 9:47 am Looks like models are trying to fire a Miller C snow event for
Sat-Sun night. I definitely like the consistency in the model runs this far out. When comparing the 0z euro and 0z gfs there are a lot of the ingredients there. 50/50 low appears to be in place with a decent Newfoundland block. IMO maybe the euro missed it completely in the 0z run ( the Newfoundland block looks identical to 0z gfs). This is going to be a wait and see and a timing issue with the transfer of energy from the primary to the secondary low, and of course the dry slot of death where the 850 low decides to travel.IMG_0110.jpeg
That is what concerns me. The SE shift. We have seen it time and time again so far this season and you can thank the -NAO for that.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 9:50 am So what has been the trend this season is what Bgoney mentioned and storm head up the east coast. I will wait to see if the models made any more corrections. With the STJ moving right along instead of northwest shifts we see quite often it may be a season of southeast shifts. With the 2 systems coming in and one around the 6th and another just a few days later the second system will sort of force the first system to move along. Will need to see if a upper system is north of the surface low and where exactly is that going to take place. I do believe these systems have a nice cold core and that is good but how much cold air do we have at the surface is key. For me its way to early to make a call but I did inform the neighbors last night that two storms are coming in the next 10 days and some do travel so they want to know when is the best time for them to head out of town. I need another cup of coffee after a few beers last night lol
Wonderful post! Timing is always everything in Ohio Valley snow storms. That is the main reason why we don't see very many of them. Our geographic location stinks. We are too far away from the Lakes for lake effect so we have to relay on synoptic systems.Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:20 amThis is exactly correct and the main driver for the differences between the globals. Good eye.Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:14 am I see the difference now with the 500mb vorticity in regards to sat-sun night. For us to cash in the upper level trough has to turn negative just east of the Mississippi. Gfs operational depicts this well. Euro operational is just a tad farther east when it goes negative. We have plenty of time to watch this unfold.
Agreed. Good post sir. Strong but not too strong. We never have it easytron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:44 am Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.
Yeah... so far so good on that one. We'll have to wait and see if that one trends weaker / SE in time. It would not surprise me if it actually did. Meanwhile, as we await the results from the 12Z GFS, this is a good graphic I found on Facebook explaining the computer models and why accuracy grows as an event gets closer in time.Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:48 amAgreed. Good post sir.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:44 am Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.
My bomb is still going strong! Pretty impressive from a model consistency standpoint. Been on the radar for a while.
The bomb weakening would actually benefit us and put us more in the game for winter weather. Some of the models have trended that way in fact.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:50 amYeah... so far so good on that one. We'll have to wait and see if that one trends weaker / SE in time. It would not surprise me if it actually did. Meanwhile, as we await the results from the 12Z GFS, this is a good graphic I found on Facebook explaining the computer models and why accuracy grows as an event gets closer in time.Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:48 amAgreed. Good post sir.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:44 am Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.
My bomb is still going strong! Pretty impressive from a model consistency standpoint. Been on the radar for a while.
Weather Model Graphic.jpg
It definitely would, I agree. That's why I said what I just said. We basically just posted the same thing.Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:51 amThe bomb weakening would actually benefit us and put us more in the game for winter weather. Some of the models have trended that way in fact.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:50 amYeah... so far so good on that one. We'll have to wait and see if that one trends weaker / SE in time. It would not surprise me if it actually did. Meanwhile, as we await the results from the 12Z GFS, this is a good graphic I found on Facebook explaining the computer models and why accuracy grows as an event gets closer in time.Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:48 amAgreed. Good post sir.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:44 am Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.
My bomb is still going strong! Pretty impressive from a model consistency standpoint. Been on the radar for a while.
Weather Model Graphic.jpg