November 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Those images look reasonable to me. Hopefully some cold air to work with once we get deeper into the winter season.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Temps are in the low 60s this morning. What is this June??? Anyway, warm weather lovers can rejoice this week. 70ish today then mid 70s tomorrow with a small rain chance. Best chance is still Wed night into Thurs. Temps will be in the 60s on Thurs then fall into the low 50s Fri and thru this weekend. Mild overnight temps will eventually fall back into the low to mid 30s by late week / weekend as well. Next week starts off dry in the 50s but we will warm up again along with dry conditions. Most of next week looks dry. A pattern change still looms with regards to better rain chances by the 18th - 20th time frame.

[tron777]

I'd like to wish a very Happy Birthday to our favorite poster from the Woodpile up in Butler Co - Woolyworm!!! Have a wonderful Birthday today and hope to see you posting more since winter is approaching.

[tron777]

Please get out and VOTE today folks since it is Election Day! It's no one's business but yours who you vote for, but I hope that everyone can get out and do their Patriotic American Duty!

Back to the weather and it certainly won't be an issue this year so that is a good thing. We may have broken a warm record at CVG for the overnight low. 61 set back in 1938 is the record warm low temp for todays date. I believe CVG has only dropped to 63 thus far. For tomorrow, the record high at CVG is 79 set back in 2020. I think we'll fall just a bit short but mid 70s should be easy to achieve.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. Love the maps from Trevor and the bottom one that shows through the next 2 weeks is almost a perfect set up when we have an El Nino late fall with heavy rains to the south,drier just to the north of that area and wet across the north with the northern jet. The map on top through much of December seem overdone and again I believe its just got to wide of a range in terms of heavy rain. No doubt some areas will get some nice rainfall but I am just not sure locally we get those kind of totals.

I agree Les are we talking June with the morning lows lol. Will be cutting grass today because we get windy later Wednesday and cooler for the end of the week. Heading to Hilton Head on Saturday and a fight between the Euro which is showing some rain on Sunday compared to the GFS and CMC which is showing dry weather. After that should be a dry week and temps in the low-mid 70's.

[tpweather]

My motto is vote early and vote often. I sent in my ballot 2 weeks ago because I am never 100p/c sure when I will be in town.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! That's right. I forgot that your annual golf outing down at HH is coming up, Definitely hope you get some nice weather for that. We have some good golfing weather around here as well. I for one like the windy conditions this time of year to get those stubborn oak leaves down so I can end my leaf grinding season as soon as possible. Hopefully I won't have to go past Thanksgiving this year.

I still think we are in line for some better rain chances after mid month. As far as any colder temps go, in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, some of the guidance is still showing a +PNA spike. We could end the month cold and begin December cold before we warm up again. I still think Dec will end up being a pretty warm month overall. Hopefully in Jan and Feb the tide turns our way as I am expecting it too. Anyway.. those are my thoughts at this time. In the more present, rain is very much needed so I truly hope that we can get some good rains in here ejecting out of the Western US trough in about 10-14 days from now. Until then, rain amounts look low and temps look very mild other then the brief cool down Fri into early next week. But even then, 50s for highs and 30s for lows are what you would expect in early November so nothing very much below normal is coming our way anytime soon.

[tron777]

Low of 62 so far at CVG. If this holds then a new record warm overnight low for 11/7 has been broken. We'll see if ILN releases a statement later today.

Edit: Nope. CVG dropped to 58 as of the 8am reading. Oh well...

[Bgoney]

Our Native American Summer’s have more days in them than our winter’s

[tron777]

Our Native American Summer’s have more days in them than our winter’s

Without a doubt! Warm temps continue to last into the Fall months. December is even a fall month these days with winter sometimes lasting into March and April or at least below avg temps. We've said this on our forum for a few years now that we just don't seem to get "seasons within seasons" anymore if that make sense. I guess what I mean is we don't seem to get snow when you would typically expect to see it as an example.

[Bgoney]

PV has been gaining in strength of late and currently is in near record territory for the date. Forecast for November calls for it to stay on the healthy side for most of the month

[tpweather]

PV has been gaining in strength of late and currently is in near record territory for the date. Forecast for November calls for it to stay on the healthy side for most of the month

I agree and noticed about a week or so ago of how the PV was no doubt getting strong. Big question is where will this set up shop in the last half of November. Will this be on the Canadian side or in Siberia. Sometimes the vortex is so big it takes up both areas but then you look for the strongest point and just not sure yet.

[tron777]

I am lowering rainfall amounts this week significantly. A lot of us won't see a single drop with this next frontal system coming thru. Those that do 0.10" or less. The secondary low on Friday still is forecast to be south of our area. So the only thing really to look forward to is a drop to normal temps in the 50s instead of the 70s. We are dry most of next week and increasingly mild again. The 50s on Mon should turn into a few days in the 70s again next week IMO. Some of the guidance is really showing a strong Omega Block over the Central / Eastern US with a deep trough out West. This spells dry and warm weather for us. Record highs maybe? I wouldn't rule it out.

I am still banking on better rain chances coming after mid month. My timing is still in that Nov 18-20th time period. Also, I am still going with a colder period coming up as we get closer to Thanksgiving. Until then... booorrrriiinnngggggg is the name of the game.

[tron777]

[tron777]

73 at CVG so far... mid 70s as in an overachiever! For tomorrow, I am only going with the mid 70s because there should be some extra clouds around. Otherwise if it were to be mainly sunny like today was, then the record of 79 would be in jeopardy.

Checked the 12Z Euro and only 0.05" with the next front at CVG so the ongoing forecast looks good of little to no rain for the area. Then we briefly cool down then warm right back up next week. I see no rain next week until perhaps towards the end of the week / next weekend time frame which would be Nov 17-19th.

[tpweather]

Les I agree rain chances look slim. We talked about this last week and I thought the models were way overdone because of the pattern. Many times with an El Nino in the fall dry conditions are possible over a greater area until we get the jets to try and meet each other and with the PV gaining strength this adds to the pattern. That is why when I saw the maps from Trevor on the rainfall amounts I thought the one for November was out of touch and then we wait and see if Mother Nature does her balancing act and many times when she does watch out for rain and yes severe weather.

I know folks are saying that the current warm spell and how this winter will be like last year. I personally believe its going to be a nice winter with tons of action and really the STJ is key. I saw Brian's video and he was concern about build up of snow in the northern plains which is a concern but too early in the season for me to cause any problems. If we get to mid-Dec with little snow in the northern plains and upper mid-west then I will need to revisit the forecast.

[tron777]

Tim.... The Siberian snow cover is coming along nicely as well as AK and Arctic Canada. I agree we could use more further south but for now I think things in that regard look fine.

[tron777]

Good evening folks! Still monitoring the fantasy range which is now the Thanksgiving time period. 12Z EPS Mean is still showing the flip to colder conditions and a possible window for something wintry as well. We'll have to wait and see if this holds as we get closer or if it gets pushed back into December. I have been mentioning the late November / early December time period as a possible window before we turn mild again by mid December. As usual, we'll see!

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[tron777]

74 at CVG today, 75 here. We have a shot to break the record of 79 at CVG tomorrow IF and only IF, the clouds don't ruin it ahead of the cold front due in for Thurs. Otherwise, mid 70s will work and we fall short.

[airwolf76]

I am for the most part happy with how this fall has been so far. for my area anyways. rainfall has been a bit below average but temps are average so that is good. if the cold and snow holds off till later in December i will be even happier . I want to enjoy autumn for as long as i can, it is by far the nicest time of year to be out doing things

[tron777]

Good morning all and do we hit 80 today for a new record or do the clouds keep us in the 70s? We'll see come 4-5pm this afternoon! Otherwise... you know the drill. Small rain chance with the frontal passage tonight into Thurs. Then temps drop into the 50s for highs, 30s for lows thru Mon of next week. Then we warm up again. Still watching the possibility for a more significant trough towards the end of next week / weekend.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and going to be near 80 and I am going with 77 because we did drop into the low 50's this morning and still have a east wind. The wind should turn to the south but how quickly and how much cloud cover. Still near the record with the strong south wind later today.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and going to be near 80 and I am going with 77 because we did drop into the low 50's this morning and still have a east wind. The wind should turn to the south but how quickly and how much cloud cover. Still near the record with the strong south wind later today.

Yes Sir! We are waiting for the warm front to surge back north, turn the wind around to the south as you mentioned and clear out the clouds. How long this process takes will determine if we break the record or not. ILN has us at 80 today so they believe that we have a shot. If I recall Trev has 78. I said mid 70s yesterday and that is probably going to be too low regardless.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and going to be near 80 and I am going with 77 because we did drop into the low 50's this morning and still have a east wind. The wind should turn to the south but how quickly and how much cloud cover. Still near the record with the strong south wind later today.

Yes Sir! We are waiting for the warm front to surge back north, turn the wind around to the south as you mentioned and clear out the clouds. How long this process takes will determine if we break the record or not. ILN has us at 80 today so they believe that we have a shot. If I recall Trev has 78. I said mid 70s yesterday and that is probably going to be too low regardless.

My reason for going lower than 80 is we are starting out 8 degrees colder than yesterday morning. We still have some high clouds and again in November never easy to heat up that much in a shorter period of time. No doubt the south wind later today will have the temps jump but I have a hard time seeing us getting above 77. Your mid-seventies may turn out fine Les

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and going to be near 80 and I am going with 77 because we did drop into the low 50's this morning and still have a east wind. The wind should turn to the south but how quickly and how much cloud cover. Still near the record with the strong south wind later today.

Yes Sir! We are waiting for the warm front to surge back north, turn the wind around to the south as you mentioned and clear out the clouds. How long this process takes will determine if we break the record or not. ILN has us at 80 today so they believe that we have a shot. If I recall Trev has 78. I said mid 70s yesterday and that is probably going to be too low regardless.

My reason for going lower than 80 is we are starting out 8 degrees colder than yesterday morning. We still have some high clouds and again in November never easy to heat up that much in a shorter period of time. No doubt the south wind later today will have the temps jump but I have a hard time seeing us getting above 77. Your mid-seventies may turn out fine Les

I'd be thrilled to get it right that's for sure. I can barely see the visible satellite pic but clear skies are over Southern and Western KY. LOU still reporting cloudy skies.