El Nino, The 2023-2024 Winter, and You!

[Bgoney]

Also saw where NOAA dusted off their generic El Niño winter prediction maps

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[tpweather]

Also saw where NOAA dusted off their generic El Niño winter prediction maps



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That is funny and sad at the same time

[tron777]

Barely above normal temp wise if that map is right. Also barely below normal precip wise as well. You can still get above normal snow with those above maps. Those maps aren't really telling us much since NOAA uses mainly ENSO climo and not much else as far as factors go. We all know this on this forum of course.

[tron777]

Strong troughing NE of Hawaii is causing the SST's there to cool and is essentially, causing the deeply -PDO to rise very quickly. I still think it remains weakly negative over the winter, but not deeply so as we saw last month. This might help keeping a more sustainable +PNA / -EPO combo going this winter.

PDO.jpg

[Bgoney]

This is making the MJO forecast easy-peasy, even more than last year’s. How long will it last.?

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[Bgoney]

CFS extends the stagnant pattern in the equatorial pacific well into the second half of NOV

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[tron777]

I think we've got a good handle on the intensity of this El Nino. Moderate continues to look like a good call. MEI is going to register for the trimonthly period in that weak to perhaps moderate range. The Nino is becoming better coupled now with the atmosphere despite the more Nina pattern (-PNA) we are seeing this week. Overall, with the PDO rising, I like how things are looking for the upcoming winter to be honest. I know what you're thinking. Something always goes wrong and yes it could still be a mild winter, but you all know me. I play the odds. We should know a lot more in the next few weeks.

[Phr0z3n]

CFS extends the stagnant pattern in the equatorial pacific well into the second half of NOV



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Very good posts on the MJo. Looks like the MJo is stuck in a phase 1 , phase 8 look

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This matches up nicely with what we should expect phase 1 and phase 8 to look respectively

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That explains pretty much what’s going to happen in the next week. Unfortunately this mjo wave will die out and not be a factor for a little bit. What I like is in my opinion this is a good indication of the influence the MJo could possibly have going into winter. If we could get a nice propagating strong mjo signal. What I don’t like is with a forecasted weakening El Niño Mjo waves are going to be hard to come by.

[tron777]

The deeply -PDO should be no more this winter. I am expecting it to be in that weakly negative to neutral range instead of -2 like it was earlier. I believe that should help with more +PNA episodes this winter instead of a raging -PNA as we have been seeing thanks to La Nina. All in all though it is going to come down to the Arctic domain. If the blocking is there, this winter should be a good one. If it isn't, then it will no doubt be mild and probably wet too. We shall see! So far the blocking has been there and quite a bit too in 2023. Hopefully it continues. PV right now seems weak and elongated but it is just starting to develop and get its act together so the strength of the PV of course remains to be seen. I would assume a weak PV this year is on tap thanks to the descending QBO.

[Bgoney]

The deeply -PDO should be no more this winter. I am expecting it to be in that weakly negative to neutral range instead of -2 like it was earlier. I believe that should help with more +PNA episodes this winter instead of a raging -PNA as we have been seeing thanks to La Nina. All in all though it is going to come down to the Arctic domain. If the blocking is there, this winter should be a good one. If it isn't, then it will no doubt be mild and probably wet too. We shall see! So far the blocking has been there and quite a bit too in 2023. Hopefully it continues. PV right now seems weak and elongated but it is just starting to develop and get its act together so the strength of the PV of course remains to be seen. I would assume a weak PV this year is on tap thanks to the descending QBO.

Yep on everything, particularly like the QBO status for the winter months.


Probably for a November thread , but after our cold spell the first week of November, ensembles are showing a west pac jet extension into the NW resulting in zonal flow and a fairly big warmup for all the lower 48 and a wet look for the western mountains

[tron777]

The deeply -PDO should be no more this winter. I am expecting it to be in that weakly negative to neutral range instead of -2 like it was earlier. I believe that should help with more +PNA episodes this winter instead of a raging -PNA as we have been seeing thanks to La Nina. All in all though it is going to come down to the Arctic domain. If the blocking is there, this winter should be a good one. If it isn't, then it will no doubt be mild and probably wet too. We shall see! So far the blocking has been there and quite a bit too in 2023. Hopefully it continues. PV right now seems weak and elongated but it is just starting to develop and get its act together so the strength of the PV of course remains to be seen. I would assume a weak PV this year is on tap thanks to the descending QBO.

Yep on everything, particularly like the QBO status for the winter months.


Probably for a November thread , but after our cold spell the first week of November, ensembles are showing a west pac jet extension into the NW resulting in zonal flow and a fairly big warmup for all the lower 48 and a wet look for the western mountains

Definitely agree on a warm up. Then the question becomes do the tropics get involved to force another cool down or do we continue the warmth for a while? That issue remains to be seen.

[tpweather]

The deeply -PDO should be no more this winter. I am expecting it to be in that weakly negative to neutral range instead of -2 like it was earlier. I believe that should help with more +PNA episodes this winter instead of a raging -PNA as we have been seeing thanks to La Nina. All in all though it is going to come down to the Arctic domain. If the blocking is there, this winter should be a good one. If it isn't, then it will no doubt be mild and probably wet too. We shall see! So far the blocking has been there and quite a bit too in 2023. Hopefully it continues. PV right now seems weak and elongated but it is just starting to develop and get its act together so the strength of the PV of course remains to be seen. I would assume a weak PV this year is on tap thanks to the descending QBO.

Yep on everything, particularly like the QBO status for the winter months.


Probably for a November thread , but after our cold spell the first week of November, ensembles are showing a west pac jet extension into the NW resulting in zonal flow and a fairly big warmup for all the lower 48 and a wet look for the western mountains

Definitely agree on a warm up. Then the question becomes do the tropics get involved to force another cool down or do we continue the warmth for a while? That issue remains to be seen.

I agree about the warm up and that is normal for November. Getting snow in mountains and northern plains is nice during November. The one thing throwing me off is the possible tropical system in the second week of November. Has been a strange year imo but the waters are no doubt very warm so a development of a tropical system is possible but just not sure how far north it can really go. Hopefully it at least throws more moisture northward. I always mentioned I will not throw out a winter forecast but each year I can't help myself lol. I do have some thoughts and will always try to throw them out by mid-November. Les I have not forgot about the contest and that item will be thrown out on Halloween.

[tron777]

The deeply -PDO should be no more this winter. I am expecting it to be in that weakly negative to neutral range instead of -2 like it was earlier. I believe that should help with more +PNA episodes this winter instead of a raging -PNA as we have been seeing thanks to La Nina. All in all though it is going to come down to the Arctic domain. If the blocking is there, this winter should be a good one. If it isn't, then it will no doubt be mild and probably wet too. We shall see! So far the blocking has been there and quite a bit too in 2023. Hopefully it continues. PV right now seems weak and elongated but it is just starting to develop and get its act together so the strength of the PV of course remains to be seen. I would assume a weak PV this year is on tap thanks to the descending QBO.

Yep on everything, particularly like the QBO status for the winter months.


Probably for a November thread , but after our cold spell the first week of November, ensembles are showing a west pac jet extension into the NW resulting in zonal flow and a fairly big warmup for all the lower 48 and a wet look for the western mountains

Definitely agree on a warm up. Then the question becomes do the tropics get involved to force another cool down or do we continue the warmth for a while? That issue remains to be seen.

I agree about the warm up and that is normal for November. Getting snow in mountains and northern plains is nice during November. The one thing throwing me off is the possible tropical system in the second week of November. Has been a strange year imo but the waters are no doubt very warm so a development of a tropical system is possible but just not sure how far north it can really go. Hopefully it at least throws more moisture northward. I always mentioned I will not throw out a winter forecast but each year I can't help myself lol. I do have some thoughts and will always try to throw them out by mid-November. Les I have not forgot about the contest and that item will be thrown out on Halloween.

All good Tim! You have until 10/31 at midnight to post your guess. Plenty of time.

With regards to the tropics, we are going to see some wild solutions until they decide to calm down. I think the tropics continue to mess with the overall pattern. The trough out West was delayed coming East thanks to Tammy. Now it can finally come East as she has weakened and she's lost her influence on the big ridge over the Eastern US. But, we may do it again Week 2 of November as we are currently discussing. Once the tropics shut down, we shall see if El Nino (instead of La Nina) conditions can take over the pattern for North America.

[tron777]

Well folks... pet the chart below, it appears that for the month of October, Nino 3.4 is only going to avg around 1.6 degrees C above normal. Guess what the Euro had? +2.03 LOL! A huge bust from the Euro and all models really.

Nino 34.png

There is still a chance that this Nino can strengthen a tad like Nov of 1972. It did get over +2 for Super Nino status. But that year October was at +1.8 which is well above where we are right now. So I still say a super Nino is off the table. Moderate to perhaps low end strong is my call which impacts wise won't be much of a difference anyway.

[tron777]

Snow and ice coverage graph is below. It looks like we maybe near normal now for late October despite the very slow start earlier in the month.

SnowIceCover.png

[tpweather]

Well folks... pet the chart below, it appears that for the month of October, Nino 3.4 is only going to avg around 1.6 degrees C above normal. Guess what the Euro had? +2.03 LOL! A huge bust from the Euro and all models really.


Nino 34.png


There is still a chance that this Nino can strengthen a tad like Nov of 1972. It did get over +2 for Super Nino status. But that year October was at +1.8 which is well above where we are right now. So I still say a super Nino is off the table. Moderate to perhaps low end strong is my call which impacts wise won't be much of a difference anyway.

Great Post Les. Never expected a strong El Nino and really moderate is pushing it for the entire winter. Sure you can have one month at moderate status but the remaining months could end up low end. Time will tell and the models have busted on this since last winter as it started out quickly but has steadied since then . I am still looking at what happens when we have 3 La Nina's followed by an El Nino. Those are interesting but again things have changed since these occurred so more info to factor in.

[tron777]

Well folks... pet the chart below, it appears that for the month of October, Nino 3.4 is only going to avg around 1.6 degrees C above normal. Guess what the Euro had? +2.03 LOL! A huge bust from the Euro and all models really.


Nino 34.png


There is still a chance that this Nino can strengthen a tad like Nov of 1972. It did get over +2 for Super Nino status. But that year October was at +1.8 which is well above where we are right now. So I still say a super Nino is off the table. Moderate to perhaps low end strong is my call which impacts wise won't be much of a difference anyway.

Great Post Les. Never expected a strong El Nino and really moderate is pushing it for the entire winter. Sure you can have one month at moderate status but the remaining months could end up low end. Time will tell and the models have busted on this since last winter as it started out quickly but has steadied since then . I am still looking at what happens when we have 3 La Nina's followed by an El Nino. Those are interesting but again things have changed since these occurred so more info to factor in.

Thanks Tim! The sample size is small since 1950 so we don't really have much too look at in regards to 3 La Ninas followed by an El Nino. This winter is going to be very interesting for sure with regards to what may happen. A lot of things we are discussing in this thread are favorable for cold and snow in the Eastern US but other things are not. I have said it numerous times that there are conflicting signals out there and I still feel that way even right now. The November runs over the next week or so on the seasonal models will be telling.

[tron777]

It looks like the very positive IOD has dropped to +1.58 from a recent high of +2.16 on October 15th.

Oct-28-IOD.png

[tpweather]

It looks like the very positive IOD has dropped to +1.58 from a recent high of +2.16 on October 15th.


Oct-28-IOD.png

Good news and one of the items that was really bugging me and how it would translate to the winter

[tron777]

It looks like the very positive IOD has dropped to +1.58 from a recent high of +2.16 on October 15th.


Oct-28-IOD.png

Good news and one of the items that was really bugging me and how it would translate to the winter

Lots of changes going on right now Tim with the PDO rise (although still negative just not as deeply negative as it once was). The IOD is lowering a bit now and the El Nino getting another WWB as we speak although I currently don't see it making the Nino much stronger then it already is. I still wonder if we have already peaked or does it hold on a little while longer before peaking. That part of the equation I am not certain about.

[tpweather]

It looks like the very positive IOD has dropped to +1.58 from a recent high of +2.16 on October 15th.


Oct-28-IOD.png

Good news and one of the items that was really bugging me and how it would translate to the winter

Lots of changes going on right now Tim with the PDO rise (although still negative just not as deeply negative as it once was). The IOD is lowering a bit now and the El Nino getting another WWB as we speak although I currently don't see it making the Nino much stronger then it already is. I still wonder if we have already peaked or does it hold on a little while longer before peaking. That part of the equation I am not certain about.

Hey Les and agree hard to say for sure if its peaked but imo it has peaked. Having a weaker El Nino imo tends to help us in the winter for folks that want cold and snow. Many other factors of course but a weaker El Nino tends to keep a really strong southeast ridge less likely. Does not mean we won't have bouts of the southeast ridge like this past week and of course not but they tend to be broken up because the stj is strong and moving along to help push it out to sea and troughs in the eastern part of the country tend to occur more often as well.

[tron777]

It looks like the very positive IOD has dropped to +1.58 from a recent high of +2.16 on October 15th.


Oct-28-IOD.png

Good news and one of the items that was really bugging me and how it would translate to the winter

Lots of changes going on right now Tim with the PDO rise (although still negative just not as deeply negative as it once was). The IOD is lowering a bit now and the El Nino getting another WWB as we speak although I currently don't see it making the Nino much stronger then it already is. I still wonder if we have already peaked or does it hold on a little while longer before peaking. That part of the equation I am not certain about.

Hey Les and agree hard to say for sure if its peaked but imo it has peaked. Having a weaker El Nino imo tends to help us in the winter for folks that want cold and snow. Many other factors of course but a weaker El Nino tends to keep a really strong southeast ridge less likely. Does not mean we won't have bouts of the southeast ridge like this past week and of course not but they tend to be broken up because the stj is strong and moving along to help push it out to sea and troughs in the eastern part of the country tend to occur more often as well.

I'm still not convinced either Tim if the atmosphere has fully coupled with the El Nino. I am still awaiting the STJ. We are still polar jet dominated which if that is the case come winter, that may not be a bad thing at all and could actually help us in the snow and cold dept. Again, we are in uncharted territory here with the current set up since there are low sample sizes when looking at past analogs. I'm very curious and interested in seeing where we go from here with November beginning next week. The November runs for the seasonal models will also be coming out next week and the week after next so that information will also be interesting to see.

[tron777]

QBO Update... the -QBO is starting to make its way down through the troposphere at 50 MB. The descending QBO is currently behaving as you would expect, which is great news!

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Oct-28-QBO-2.png

[airwolf76]

NOT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FROM WHAT I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT IT SEAMS THIS WINTER WILL END UP 125-150% OF AVERAGE SNOWFALL WITH AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS.

[tron777]

NOT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FROM WHAT I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT IT SEAMS THIS WINTER WILL END UP 125-150% OF AVERAGE SNOWFALL WITH AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS.

You should no doubt have a much better winter vs last year. The same should be true for us in the OV as well. It's going to be fun watching it pan out.