February 2023 Discussion

[tron777]

12Z Euro finally has light precip Monday morning for I think the first time. Tues morning a thin band of snow just to the south of the Metro. Then suppression depression after that.

[tpweather]

Starting to notice these small areas of winter weather advisory's and even a small area of winter storm watch in North Texas. I believe this is more the norm this week and would not be surprised at sometime during the week parts of the Ohio Valley will see these pop up from time to time.

[tpweather]

Les don't know if you are nearby but so far what I am seeing is these advisory's and the watch is further north and west and I saw no models showing this. Does this mean we have a better shot of winter weather and no way of knowing for sure but if the trend continues we will be busier than we thought.

[tpweather]

Another advisory for folks near Paducah. This is for frz/drz. So advisory number 1 of many for the Ohio Valley this week.

[tpweather]

What is the over/under for any kind of advisory,watches for the Ohio Valley through Friday. I am saying the over/under is 10. I am taking the over. Wow football still on my mind lol

[tron777]

Les don't know if you are nearby but so far what I am seeing is these advisory's and the watch is further north and west and I saw no models showing this. Does this mean we have a better shot of winter weather and no way of knowing for sure but if the trend continues we will be busier than we thought.

I'm here. I looked at the watch text for Texas and it's for Mon - Wed and if you use the GFS model it has the bulk of the action coming on Tues and that's it. CMC is a much better representation of the watch and advisory areas as it does have wintry precip all 3 days as does the Euro.

[tron777]

What is the over/under for any kind of advisory,watches for the Ohio Valley through Friday. I am saying the over/under is 10. I am taking the over. Wow football still on my mind lol

I don't know Tim. You are much more confident / optimistic then I am. The Mon AM wave maybe too far north for us but the Mon night into Tues wave does hold some promise. Wed / GHD, eh... we'll see as there is time for that one to bump north but I'm just not confident enough to put out a forecast. For me, that is sad as I usually always have a forecast to throw out there, but not this time.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR has any wintry weather north of Cincinnati until about 8-10am in the morning as the colder air finally starts to work in to change the remaining moisture to flurries / freezing drizzle. For the Mon night into Tues wave, it is snow as long as the precip is heavy enough otherwise it is sleet or frz rain. The model starts as snow then changes it over as the precip rates lighten up. Not a bunch of accum but enough to make the Tues AM commute a mess. That needs to be watched IMO.

[MVWxObserver]

At least the routing from Greenville to Lima and back looks great for my folks as Mom has an appt up that way on Tues.

[tron777]

18Z NAM is really interesting for the Mon night into Tues wave. All snow for the Tri-state on this run with your mixing issues with sleet or frz rain located over the extreme S / SE counties. NAM gives CVG 0.13" of QPF which is the most I've seen thus far.

[tpweather]

What is the over/under for any kind of advisory,watches for the Ohio Valley through Friday. I am saying the over/under is 10. I am taking the over. Wow football still on my mind lol

I don't know Tim. You are much more confident / optimistic then I am. The Mon AM wave maybe too far north for us but the Mon night into Tues wave does hold some promise. Wed / GHD, eh... we'll see as there is time for that one to bump north but I'm just not confident enough to put out a forecast. For me, that is sad as I usually always have a forecast to throw out there, but not this time.

Les getting those advisories will not be as tough because you can get those with frz/dr which I do believe is going to happen this week.

[tpweather]

Les don't know if you are nearby but so far what I am seeing is these advisory's and the watch is further north and west and I saw no models showing this. Does this mean we have a better shot of winter weather and no way of knowing for sure but if the trend continues we will be busier than we thought.

I'm here. I looked at the watch text for Texas and it's for Mon - Wed and if you use the GFS model it has the bulk of the action coming on Tues and that's it. CMC is a much better representation of the watch and advisory areas as it does have wintry precip all 3 days as does the Euro.

Cmc may score again when the PV is nearby. Just makes you think twice when it happens again.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM shows a period of freezing drizzle on Monday. We get clipped by the snow shield for Mon night into Tues. 18Z GFS has the snow for Mon morning north of Cincy, a swing and a miss Tues and everything else is well south.

[tpweather]

Time for a little weather before the main game lol. We look at these models and again no model had the advisories and watches in central and west Texas. Maybe east Texas but I saw no model further west. What does this tell me and again look at current conditions and are they matching up with the models and I say not so much. We are still sitting at 45 and the cold is not making huge inroads and this tells me the front is slowing down. This imo will keep moisture further west on Monday but one problem it may keep us a tad warmer so some folks may not get into the winter side right away. Will this trend continue for the remainder of the week and again you are probably going to need a somewhat stronger wave to move the front further to the east and so far the waves are really just that and not a strong push after precip goes by your area.

So 1 winter weather advisory but the Indy office has sent out a special weather statement which is not included in my total of 10 for weather advisories or watches but see what happens in the morning if they ice starts causing problem they will probably change to an advisory. Of course I am talking just the Ohio Valley in getting 10 such items so I thought that was a fair number to go with. We may never have one here locally or we may get 2 or 3 and that is with a front that will waver back and forth with each wave that approaches.

[tron777]

Tim... which offices are you counting for this? I am assuming the list below, which I think covers all of the Ohio Valley. Hope I didn't miss anyone.

IWX - Northern Indiana
CLE - Cleveland
IND - Indianapolis
ILN - Wilmington
LOU - Louisville
PAH - Paducah
JKL - Jackson, KY
RLX - Charlestown, WV

[tpweather]

Tim... which offices are you counting for this? I am assuming the list below, which I think covers all of the Ohio Valley. Hope I didn't miss anyone.

IWX - Northern Indiana
CLE - Cleveland
IND - Indianapolis
ILN - Wilmington
LOU - Louisville
PAH - Paducah
JKL - Jackson, KY
RLX - Charlestown, WV

Great Question Les and only ones that have a NWS office in Ohio,Indiana or Kentucky.

[tron777]

Tim... which offices are you counting for this? I am assuming the list below, which I think covers all of the Ohio Valley. Hope I didn't miss anyone.

IWX - Northern Indiana
CLE - Cleveland
IND - Indianapolis
ILN - Wilmington
LOU - Louisville
PAH - Paducah
JKL - Jackson, KY
RLX - Charlestown, WV

Great Question Les and only ones that have a NWS office in Ohio,Indiana or Kentucky.

Thanks! So my list there is good minus RLX of course.

[airwolf76]

I have to be honest i am almost ready to give up on this winter I know its still only January but I am losing hope by the day and the towel is in my hand. I really thought the first week of Feb would be something to get excited about and then after that they are talking about another warm up for the rest of the month. I will give it a another day or so to see if there is any hope as far as early February goes.

No way that I am giving up on seeing a nice storm, at least not yet anyway. But I won't lie either. I am disappointed for next week. The set up really looked good but models did not have the PV handled correctly early on and IMO that's been the difference.

any sustained cold and snow I feel is gone at this point. I had so much hope and promise for early February and now nothing but depression and confusion . Saw a video recently and even the telleconnections look horrible after early February.

Charles the good thing for you is next weekend will probably be your coldest period this winter so far.

Yes it appears it will rival the cold we saw right before Christmas last month

[airwolf76]

I have to be honest i am almost ready to give up on this winter I know its still only January but I am losing hope by the day and the towel is in my hand. I really thought the first week of Feb would be something to get excited about and then after that they are talking about another warm up for the rest of the month. I will give it a another day or so to see if there is any hope as far as early February goes.

No way that I am giving up on seeing a nice storm, at least not yet anyway. But I won't lie either. I am disappointed for next week. The set up really looked good but models did not have the PV handled correctly early on and IMO that's been the difference.

any sustained cold and snow I feel is gone at this point. I had so much hope and promise for early February and now nothing but depression and confusion . Saw a video recently and even the telleconnections look horrible after early February.

Sustained cold and snow I agree is probably going to be tough but the threat for a snow storm IMO is always there until mid March for our area locally. Even when the Midwest had record setting snows in the 2007-2008 winter, and we only had 6" on the books thru Feb, we got that early March of 2008 blizzard that saved , what would have otherwise been a clunker of a winter. For our area, all it takes is one big storm to help out with the stats. Even in the dismal 1992-1993 winter, the March Super Storm occurred which everyone will never forget. It seems like sometimes, these clunker winters can produce a big one on their way out. Of course that doesn't work every time. Some are bad from start to finish like 2001-2002 or 2011-2012. But anyway, it's all I've got!

i agree. this is going to be a clunker type with a home run possibility still on the table. It looks like after early Feb we go back to a crap pattern so we probably end up the rest of the winter with small windows that will open up for us to score a big one that will melt away 4 days later. thats kind of how i am envision the rest of winter

[tron777]

Good morning all! Tim... you've got some more WWA's to put on to the score board for our NW and Northern counties today. Too warm for us down here as I expected. 33 degrees IMBY currently with dense fog. For us, we'll have to see how far north the precip shield can make it. I think it will mainly be in the form of snow on the northern edge of it with sleet and frz rain further south. Our Southern counties (Matt!!!) are favored with this wave but even CVG has a small chance with this. We shall see! Then it looks mainly dry and cold the rest of the week with a warm up beginning Sunday on into the following week.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and up to 6 advisories. Sort of a sucker bet because frz/drz will cause the NWS offices to issues advisories because of potential ice on the roads and that is why I set the over/under at 10. Some areas will probably get hit with multiple advisories this week even though total precip may stay under 1/4 inch.

Still going to give it to the CMC as that model once again does better with this pattern. Gfs like usual moves systems to quickly and the Euro is just not picking up on the precip until about a day before it happens.

The mjo which I believe is correct is in phase 3. Models look to send this into phase 4 in about a week and some have it as a moderate phase and others very weak. So yes temps will probably rise once again by the weekend but is this short term as more cold is available in Canada or is it another milder period that last more than a week.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... yeah, I understand what you mean on the betting system there for the number of advisories. I think it'll work out for you. the boundary is south of us and we are just waiting to see how much moisture we can get once we are cold enough down here tonight. Northern posters are cold enough now for that light wintry mix today.

[BookNerdCarp]

Going to definitely need a northward push for my area to see anything.

[tpweather]

So how does the week look and the only part of the forecast I disagree with from the NWS is later Wednesday into Thursday. This should be the strongest of the waves this week and we have another cold front heading this way. Models are usually horrible at this set up until about 24-36 hours in advance. They usually keep the precip to far south in these situations. Models have the original High Pressure over Indiana later tonight through Wednesday morning and this at first will keep precip at bay later Tuesday into the day on Wednesday. That high moves eastward and then the strongest wave heads northeast out of Texas. So I expect somebody in the Ohio Valley to get hit with a winter storm watch mid-week. At this point most likely spot is in central Kentucky as we could see a decent ice storm for them. North of there including the local area would most likely be snow or a mix.

Frz/drz is something we need to be aware of all week as temps near or slightly below 32 at times and road temps should come down several degrees from this weekend.

So really I am going out on that lonely island which I have not done much this winter season but finally I jumped ship and decided that the island looks halfway decent. So will other folks join me on that island later this week or do I end up like Gilligan and unable to get off the island and nobody comes to my rescue.

[tron777]

Going to definitely need a northward push for my area to see anything.

I'm pulling for you buddy!