Absolute Vorticity

Just checked the Euro and again model is staying the path. The only difference between this model today and yesterday is it digs the cold a little further southwest and this has the storm forming a little earlier but end up with the same result. The Euro has the storm slowing down compared to the other two models. So minor differences on all 3 models and believe the Tuesday afternoon run of the models will give us a better shot of throwing out a forecast. If the Euro is correct then a better shot of a dry slot as the low develops several hours earlier.

It's hard not to ignore the Euro not bending an inch. My guess is a Chicago blizzard is now gaining traction and rain,wind, the dry slot and hopefully an inch or two of snow might be our fate if things don't change in the next 36 hours.

Just looked at the upper system for the gfs and cmc for later this week and they have moved a hair south on both models. The Euro is not out yet.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:03 pm Just looked at the upper system for the gfs and cmc for later this week and they have moved a hair south on both models. The Euro is not out yet.

Euro should be done by now . Check Pivotal Weather. Maybe Tropical Tidbits is slower?

If you have Twitter, Bernie Rayno just did a live video that’s available to view. He has Cincinnati still in the bullseye for what it’s worth.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:23 pm If you have Twitter, Bernie Rayno just did a live video that’s available to view. He has Cincinnati still in the bullseye for what it’s worth.

Wow.... I'm surprised. Even the GFS is West just not as bad as the Euro.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:30 pm

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:23 pm If you have Twitter, Bernie Rayno just did a live video that’s available to view. He has Cincinnati still in the bullseye for what it’s worth.

Wow.... I'm surprised. Even the GFS is West just not as bad as the Euro.

I am not on twitter so if anyone has that video available I would love to see it. Thanks

Eps kind of looks slightly west of the op , the timing of the low is different so its hard to match the hrs up. This is still possible, If the low is stronger sooner than has been depicted . Nothing can be ruled out just yet

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:44 pm Eps kind of looks slightly west of the op , the timing of the low is different so its hard to match the hrs up. This is still possible, If the low is stronger sooner than has been depicted . Nothing can be ruled out just yet

EPS and Euro have complimented each other as of late. It's going to be a crazy storm! Just hope it's not so strong that we get very little snow. That's my worry attm lol

Welp, I jinxed the storm fellas. Just ordered some calcium chloride for the residential driveways I service. Can always wish for graupel right?

We're still in the game for some snow but the big dog potential I think is off the table. Hoping we can get 1-3" or something unless we see another shift. But those should be getting less and less as time goes on.

BCW wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:16 pm Welp, I jinxed to the storm fellas. Just ordered some calcium chloride for the residential driveways I service. Can always wish for graupel right?

I picked some up last week, I didn't have the courage to mention it.

I really like Bernie's explanation, but he doesn't give much reasoning for thinking the Euro is wrong. I can think of only one time where the Euro collapsed east within 5 days and, to be fair, that happened about 2 days out, but I'm seeing no reason to believe that the Euro is about to bend. I think we see less than 2 inches of wind-blown snow. Once the Euro breaks west in winter it almost never comes back.

snowbo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 2:44 pm https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/16 ... VaUvuY9yQg

Thank You So Much

GFS going all in showing a 1067mb high in Montana., that would be a record breaker for the lower 48.

AddisonJM wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:21 pm I really like Bernie's explanation, but he doesn't give much reasoning for thinking the Euro is wrong. I can think of only one time where the Euro collapsed east within 5 days and, to be fair, that happened about 2 days out, but I'm seeing no reason to believe that the Euro is about to bend. I think we see less than 2 inches of wind-blown snow. Once the Euro breaks west in winter it almost never comes back.

I've learned in the past that a storm of this magnitude almost always brings last minute surprises. This is a very rare kind of storm for the Midwest. Even within 36-48 hours we have seen fairly big changes in the modeling in past "big events". I'm betting that we see something along those lines once again. Sometimes we benefit from such changes and sometimes we don't, but these types of storms are rare. I'm not setting anything in stone just yet.

I found this on the Internet. The top picture is the 12z Euro. The bottom is last night's 00z Euro.

Good Afternoon and some great games in the nfl. Okay this is concerning the system for later this week. Love Bernie's video and probably because he is stubborn like I am concerning how I see a system playing out. I will keep my thoughts the same until I see something that makes me go you were wrong. My biggest item in the more southern path of the low is the cross-polar air and how models really has a hard time with this until we see this cold air start to enter the USA. This alone imo has the low develop further south by a couple of hundred miles. Cross-polar air is rare and even sometimes when you get a polar vortex its not always cross-polar. So please give this stubborn old man a few more days lol Btw the temp in parts of the Yukon is -52 f so that cold is deep.

Top ten cold means for Xmas (min)and eve(avg)

BG posted that he is working tonight so he’s doing a Snowtalk episode later. Will be interesting to get his take on things.

kywthrluvr wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 4:14 pm BG posted that he is working tonight so he’s doing a Snowtalk episode later. Will be interesting to get his take on things.

Awesome! I'll watch it tonight when I get home.

cincy bud wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:49 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 10:00 am

cincy bud wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:54 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:36 am

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 9:06 am Man the Euro wont give up its path and the GFS seems to be cementing its own. Lets hope the GFS wins this time.

Just realized the 6z gfs trended to the Euro.

Does the warm tongue strike as usual?

There doesn't seem to be much of a warm anything with this. The ground temperatures are going to be receptive.

Euro showing rain at first. That low needs to move east some.

I lived through the blizzards of 77/78. We had thunderstorms and then thunder ice and snow.
I am 20 minutes from I-70 and I am at an altitude of 1000 ft above sea level. It can be raining 3 miles south and we have snow.

Same here bro. I had resided on Route 127 (Pleasant Ave) in Hamilton and then later on Belle Ave which connects to Pleasant.

Had a front row seat on 127 and had fun watching the road graders helping the plow truck operators clear the thoroughfare.

School was out for what seemed like 'forever'.

This is a great test for the new GFS.

These runs are getting worse and worse for us ha