Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 7:34 am
A bit warmer here than yesterday, 33. Still no ground frost with no moisture in the ground
Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Page 6 of 22
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:07 am
32 here for my low with plenty of frost. More frost then yesterday morning. Car tops, roof tops, lawns, etc. all has a coating on it today! Looks like CVG will bottom out in that 34-35 degree range.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:11 am
My temp call for highs this week and rain chances:
Today - L60s
Mon - 70
Tues - Low to mid 70s
Wed - U70s, perhaps 80? Low end rain chance late. Becoming more likely Wed night
Thurs - Any showers end early - 63
Fri - 60
Sat - 65
An early look at rainfall amounts with that next front looks to be on the order of 0.25" or less at this time. I have seen some guidance a few days ago going 0.50-1" of rain but you've got to take into account how dry it's been so I'll stick with the lesser totals for now.
Today - L60s
Mon - 70
Tues - Low to mid 70s
Wed - U70s, perhaps 80? Low end rain chance late. Becoming more likely Wed night
Thurs - Any showers end early - 63
Fri - 60
Sat - 65
An early look at rainfall amounts with that next front looks to be on the order of 0.25" or less at this time. I have seen some guidance a few days ago going 0.50-1" of rain but you've got to take into account how dry it's been so I'll stick with the lesser totals for now.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:16 am
GFS slowly coming in line with EU QPF amounts for Thursday, I think .20-.50" is reasonable for the region atm. Not the 1.00" amounts GFS was holding onto. A fast moving front with no low nearby , the lower amounts are more likely
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:24 am
Th fall veggies are absolutely loving these temps
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:27 am
Yes and that really has been the biggest reason we are not seeing a lot of frost on the ground. Car tops and windows along with roof tops have a nice coating of ice but the lawn itself is a slim layer and not covering all the yard. Moisture in the ground is huge in getting the heavy frost.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:33 am
Good Morning Les and I believe we never took the bait for higher totals. Starting to see a pattern that may set up for the winter which is decent cold shots every 5-7 days but storminess that clips us but tends to be further south and east. Have storms come into Alaska go over the ridging out west and head southeast. Then we just hope the STJ is active and that is something we need to watch and could be the difference between a cold and rather dry winter or a cold and really nice winter in terms of winter precip. Again we are in the early stages but some of these signs are showing up and we know patterns tend to repeat once they get established.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:52 am
Nope, got beat 42 to 0. Ugly.MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 08, 2022 1:03 amDid your High School team pick win?young pup wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:53 pmMine will be forced to swith in about an hour. Going up to run chains at the High School football game.I know it won't be that cold. But when the sun goes down I expect it to be about 45-48? by the end of the game.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:59 am
Good morning Tim! The +PNA / -EPO combo along with a persistent Hudson's Bay vortex... if that 500 MB pattern continues for the winter then it'll get interesting in a hurry! Of course, we don't yet know, but the next 2 weeks looks to be the status quo for sure.tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 09, 2022 8:33 amGood Morning Les and I believe we never took the bait for higher totals. Starting to see a pattern that may set up for the winter which is decent cold shots every 5-7 days but storminess that clips us but tends to be further south and east. Have storms come into Alaska go over the ridging out west and head southeast. Then we just hope the STJ is active and that is something we need to watch and could be the difference between a cold and rather dry winter or a cold and really nice winter in terms of winter precip. Again we are in the early stages but some of these signs are showing up and we know patterns tend to repeat once they get established.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:15 am
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 6:08 pm
63 here today. I expect the Metro to stay close to 40 tonight. 30s of course rural areas with light frost possible. A 3 day warming trend then back to Fall with a dash of rain / thunder with a a cold front mid week.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 6:43 pm
Looks good Les and I believe the cold front Thursday drops temps somewhat but a bigger shot the following Monday and could be one of those days where temps have a hard time getting to 50. Still believe rainfall will be on the lighter side with totals for most between .25 and .50 though some folks could get less as we know how these quick systems work.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 6:56 pm
As we head into mid-October a second rainy season usually starts and lasts through early December. Models are starting to advertise more rainfall starting this week so lets see how that pans out. Yes the ground is dry but once you get later into fall that is not the kind of problem you see in the summer and early fall as systems are not so dependent on wet grounds.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 7:46 pm
51 imby right now, probably headed to the U30s by morning. Watch for patchy valley / river fog in the morning. Otherwise sunny and 70ish tomorrow. Nice weather really for the 1st half of the week then the front.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:29 pm
Really enjoying this month of October so far. temps have been average or even below. that is so nice compared to how warm it could be this time of year yet. it is so refreshing to have a cooler October or how it should be this time of year. long range is showing below avg temps also so thats encouraging 
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Oct 09, 2022 10:39 pm
Very nice temp-wise indeed this Oct because early Oct 2019 e.g. was around 90 degrees! when my folks, myself, sister, bil and niece attended a cousins reunion in Indiana.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 7:29 am
43 here this morning. 3 days in the 70s upcoming so enjoy it guys ahead of our next cold front. Timing is now looking like we get small chances Wed, likely Wed night,. then back to gorgeous fall weather Thurs thru the weekend.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:26 am
Les this October has been easy on forecasters. Still .25-.50 but again some folks may get less. System is to progressive and though we may have a 6 hour period where the rain is falling that is about the duration of the rain. Still looking at early next week as another shot of cold air is heading this way and once you get into mid-Oct we start looking at cutoff lows that form and these can really keep temps down if you are nearby.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:29 am
Either side of midnight Wed night looks to be the prime time window for us to get wet, as you said for about a 6 hour period. This month has been fairly easy with a +PNA dominating and mainly cool and dry weather for us, with the Gulf being closed for business. The Gulf will open up with this next system so at least we have that going for us instead of a few sprinkles and that's it.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 8:26 amLes this October has been easy on forecasters. Still .25-.50 but again some folks may get less. System is to progressive and though we may have a 6 hour period where the rain is falling that is about the duration of the rain. Still looking at early next week as another shot of cold air is heading this way and once you get into mid-Oct we start looking at cutoff lows that form and these can really keep temps down if you are nearby.
After this one passes, we're back to the same ole, same ole. I see several more cold blasts of air down the road too. No changes to the +PNA yet in my opinion.Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 11:22 am
A marginal risk from the SPC now for Wed night.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 1:23 pm
Well well well what does the CMC have cooking for early next week. If you guessed snow you are correct. I agree the cold shot imo looks decent but can we get some flakes to fly. The CMC tends to be a tad colder than other models and usually ahead of the game about 3 times each winter.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:01 pm
CMC is certainly interesting with a closed upper low solution for next week. Not seeing any other model showing that yet so we'll no doubt PASS on that solution. However, it is that time of year for Digital Snow again!
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:03 pm
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 4:22 pm
Saw on the noon news wx segment today that Darke Co e.g. is in an abnormally dry D0 zone so could certainly use some more rain. 
Currently 72 here in G'ville.
Currently 72 here in G'ville.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2022 5:52 pm
High of 72 here today! Another beauty! Another wonderful day tomorrow. Warm Wed, but small rain chances possible. A damp Wed night then back to Fall. We are still looking at a high in the 50s, lows in the 30s type of regime after this weekend when the next front arrives. By Columbus Day, Highs 50 to 55 across AV Country? Very possible!