Absolute Vorticity

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Good morning pro-nouns , nice comfy start to the morning, but beware, we have a normal summer August day on tap. For tomorrow, hopefully we have the MCS forecast to develop to our NW overnight die off quicker than the last die-off that ruined our chances for better rains . If it does expect widely scattered heavy downpours in the PM. Chances continue the days following as has been discussed. Still like the 30-50% range of coverage each day

Good morning folks! Pro-nouns! If we can choose our own pronouns then should I be called King? Lord? Master? Anyway, back to our forecast and forecasting convection as everyone knows is tough to do. Some people this week will see several inches of rain and others, maybe only a half inch. Just kind of how it goes with this type of pattern we're stuck in this week and next.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:06 am Good morning folks! Pro-nouns! If we can choose our own pronouns then should I be called King? Lord? Master? Anyway, back to our forecast and forecasting convection as everyone knows is tough to do. Some people this week will see several inches of rain and others, maybe only a half inch. Just kind of how it goes with this type of pattern we're stuck in this week and next.

That would be Mr.Lord to you lol. August and we are heading out of the rainy season. I believe August normally averages around 4 inches but as we know the closer we get to fall the drier we get normally. So if we can get 1-2 inches that is a good start for the month plus at the moment vegetation is doing quite well for early August. Took a walk this morning and temp not bad but the lovely humidity is in place and no doubt we could see a heat index over 95 today.

It will be the battle of the domes this week! Who's will ward off the pesky rains and who's will take the day off and allow your yard/plants a chance to get some free water. Stay tuned to AV for further details as specifics become more clear (which may be hour by hour in this pattern LOL)

Nice posts guys! That's the basics of it. Some will win, some will lose. The overnight Euro / EPS showing 2-4" of rain for the area over the next week to 10 days.

Hey Tim... this will excite you (as it does me). Per Fairbanks NWS Office, the sun finally set in Barrow at 2am local time! So in other words, the 24 hours of daylight for the Arctic is now over and we're going back te other way now. In short, cold air can start to build along with snow and ice cover over the next few months. The summer ice melt season has about a month or so left! It usually ends in mid Sept on average.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:04 am Hey Tim... this will excite you (as it does me). Per Fairbanks NWS Office, the sun finally set in Barrow at 2am local time! So in other words, the 24 hours of daylight for the Arctic is now over and we're going back te other way now. In short, cold air can start to build along with snow and ice cover over the next few months. The summer ice melt season has about a month or so left! It usually ends in mid Sept on average.

Les you know me to well. I love when I see that and really Alaska has been colder than normal the past month and Barrow has had few days in the 50's this summer plus rain mixed with snow in the forecast which happens but usually not in early August.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:16 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:04 am Hey Tim... this will excite you (as it does me). Per Fairbanks NWS Office, the sun finally set in Barrow at 2am local time! So in other words, the 24 hours of daylight for the Arctic is now over and we're going back te other way now. In short, cold air can start to build along with snow and ice cover over the next few months. The summer ice melt season has about a month or so left! It usually ends in mid Sept on average.

Les you know me to well. I love when I see that and really Alaska has been colder than normal the past month and Barrow has had few days in the 50's this summer plus rain mixed with snow in the forecast which happens but usually not in early August.

Yes Sir! Today and tomorrow are nice in the 50s then it's back to their usual crappy weather of cloudy skies with rain and snow showers with temps primarily in the 30s to around 40 degrees. It'll be time to watch those snow cover maps before you know it!

12z NAM suite looking good for scattered storms in the PM Thursday. Has the complex to our NW overnight fizzleing out near Indy in the morning. Should build some descent cape if that's how it pans out

12Z HRRR is basically doing the same thing. I-70 folks have the best chance of getting a scattered storm early Thurs, but it's after 4pm or so for the rest of us to have a chance.

12Z GFS for tomorrow shows basically the same thing ass the other models we've already posted on. Nice agreement for I-70 to see scattered storms Thurs morning, then afternoon and evening action for the rest of us as the front gets closer before stalling out in KY. GFS has a nice cluster of storms for the Metro if correct on this solution.

89 as of 1pm so we will of course have a contest day today probably by 2pm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:08 pm 89 as of 1pm so we will of course have a contest day today probably by 2pm.

Les I also saw the dew point at 77. 102 index is quite impressive and lucky we will be heading towards a stormier pattern but one with quite a bit of fuel.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:08 pm 89 as of 1pm so we will of course have a contest day today probably by 2pm.

Les I also saw the dew point at 77. 102 index is quite impressive and lucky we will be heading towards a stormier pattern but one with quite a bit of fuel.

It's going to be a couple more weeks before we see any substantial drops in the humidity. Lots of nights in the 70s upcoming which is good for storms at night with the nocturnal LLJ. You know that has had a role in these flash flooding events we keep seeing. Surprising that we haven't had to deal with any of that yet, which is good! Maybe our time is coming?

90 as of 2pm so there we go.

12Z Euro hammers CVG Thurs night with an inch of rain. So the trends today have been for scattered action early Thurs mainly northern posters then better chances later on as one heads south.

Looks like a couple blips on the radar across Hamilton County OH and also some lightning over in Switzerland Co IN

Severe t-storm watches out from Lower MI to Chicago to STL with our next cold front that we are waiting for us tomorrow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:08 pm 89 as of 1pm so we will of course have a contest day today probably by 2pm.

Les I also saw the dew point at 77. 102 index is quite impressive and lucky we will be heading towards a stormier pattern but one with quite a bit of fuel.

It's going to be a couple more weeks before we see any substantial drops in the humidity. Lots of nights in the 70s upcoming which is good for storms at night with the nocturnal LLJ. You know that has had a role in these flash flooding events we keep seeing. Surprising that we haven't had to deal with any of that yet, which is good! Maybe our time is coming?

Shut yo' Mouth!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:12 pm Looks like a couple blips on the radar across Hamilton County OH and also some lightning over in Switzerland Co IN

Interesting look on visible too. Just west of my hood, but I'm interested in watching to see if it moves SE and can build any further.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:08 pm 89 as of 1pm so we will of course have a contest day today probably by 2pm.

Les I also saw the dew point at 77. 102 index is quite impressive and lucky we will be heading towards a stormier pattern but one with quite a bit of fuel.

It's going to be a couple more weeks before we see any substantial drops in the humidity. Lots of nights in the 70s upcoming which is good for storms at night with the nocturnal LLJ. You know that has had a role in these flash flooding events we keep seeing. Surprising that we haven't had to deal with any of that yet, which is good! Maybe our time is coming?

Shut yo' Mouth!

Okay. Fine. Enjoy your snow tonight.

92 on the B'goney thermometer. Another hot humid day with a stiff breeze to help make it more tolerable

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:15 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:12 pm Looks like a couple blips on the radar across Hamilton County OH and also some lightning over in Switzerland Co IN

Interesting look on visible too. Just west of my hood, but I'm interested in watching to see if it moves SE and can build any further.

Les - it almost looks like some sort of boundary from LOU to western Ham Co OH to east side of Dayton. Seeing some pretty good Cu development here in my hood currently.