June 2022 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Severe weather watch until 10pm for folks just southwest of us. Makes sense and my guess will probably be extended further northeast over the next few hours. Again this is not a big severe outbreak but any storm can produce some quick strong winds and cloud to ground lightning. Heavy rains in a short period as well.

[cloudy72]

60 mph gust at Richmond IN airport.

[Bgoney]

The line has developed an outflow boundary very noticeable on radar. This probably means as they move ne they will start to weaken for our eastern counties

[tpweather]

I agree over the next hour or two they should weaken. This time of year we have plenty of heating left in the day so expect more to develop to the southwest. Over time the severe threat even though not a huge threat will die down. What looks to happen though is the LLJ may gain strength this evening and overnight. This could help in producing some heavy rains. Still need to see how everything pans out but as with most severe events the heavy rain usually tends to be the headline.

[cloudy72]

I hear my dome cracking....... Tim - did you drive up here? LOL

[tpweather]

I hear my dome cracking....... Tim - did you drive up here? LOL

Mike I like to stay in the bushes.

[tron777]

0.40" as of 5pm at CVG. Up to about a half inch now here from continued repeated rounds of showers / t-showers.

[Bgoney]

Finally arrived here a few minutes ago. 25 to 30 mph tops for wind on arrival and a nice moderate rain continuing to come down

[MVWxObserver]

1726 UNK 5 WNW WILMINGTON CLINTON OH 3948 8391 LARGE LIVE TREE DOWN NEAR I-73 BETWEEN I-71 AND DUTCH CREEK. (ILN)

1727 64 2 SSE WILMINGTON CLINTON OH 3942 8382 (ILN)

1727 UNK 2 SSE WILMINGTON CLINTON OH 3942 8382 LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN NORTH OF NWS OFFICE. (ILN)

1727 UNK 5 WNW WILMINGTON CLINTON OH 3948 8391 LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON 73 AND WILLIAMS ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1749 UNK 1 SE XENIA GREENE OH 3967 8393 TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON MCDOWELL STREET. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1813 UNK 1 E CRESTWOOD OLDHAM KY 3834 8546 SCATTERED REPORTS OF TREES DOWN BETWEEN GOSHEN AND CRESTWOOD ... POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN CRESTWOOD AND LA GRANGE ... POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO A BARN AND TREES ON A GOAT FARM. (LMK)

1815 UNK NE WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE FAYETTE OH 3954 8343 LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING RESIDENTIAL ROAD IN WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1857 UNK NNW CARROLLTON CARROLL KY 3868 8517 POWER POLES DOWN 1200 BLOCK OF HIGHLAND. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1858 UNK 1 NW CARROLLTON SWITZERLAND IN 3869 8519 TREE REMOVED FROM ROAD NEAR 56 AND LAMB DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1927 UNK 1 SW BATESVILLE RIPLEY IN 3929 8523 LARGE TREE DOWNED ACROSS SR 229 AND HUNTSVILLE RD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

1932 UNK 1 N BATESVILLE RIPLEY IN 3931 8522 TREE DOWNED ACROSS A PORTION OF INTERSTATE 74. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

1936 UNK 3 NNW OWENTON OWEN KY 3858 8487 TREES DOWN ON OLD NEW LIBERTY ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1943 UNK 2 SW METAMORA FRANKLIN IN 3943 8516 TREE DOWN POWER POLE ON 229. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1945 UNK 3 WSW BRIDGETOWN HAMILTON OH 3914 8469 TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON TRUMBULL COURT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1955 UNK NW BROOKVILLE FRANKLIN IN 3943 8501 TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON WEST KLEIN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1956 UNK 3 E OWENTON OWEN KY 3853 8478 TREES DOWN ON O BANION LANE. (ILN)

2010 UNK 5 NW FAIRFIELD BUTLER OH 3939 8461 WITNESSED SIGN BLOWN OFF ITS POLE. (ILN)

2025 60 KRID RICHMOND AIRPORT WAYNE IN 3976 8484 (ILN)

2031 UNK 3 NNE LOVELAND WARREN OH 3930 8425 TREES DOWN ON BUTTERWORTH ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

[cloudy72]

Decent storm with prob 35-40 mph gusts. Heavy rain falling now with 0.20” so far. Just what the doc ordered! And a coup from the HRRR model!

[tpweather]

With the rain from earlier today and the ongoing rain at the moment I am standing at a little over .60. Should see another uptick later this evening and overnight with rainfall as the LLJ kicks in. I believe if the LLJ kicks in like expected this will slow down the front somewhat so folks further south and east could get in on some really decent rains. Where does the front stall on Tuesday and can we get some afternoon development of showers. I believe that is possible especially the further south you live. Then we wait on another rather strong system through here late Wednesday which could bring in some more heavy rainfall. Thursday and much of Friday looks dry and cool for this time of year and then another chance of rainfall late Friday and early Saturday. After that we wait and see how the pattern develops. I believe the ridge will start to expand next week but you can add some MCS''s to enter the picture. These systems will be able to tap some moisture and with the rockies,nothern and central plains and the Ohio Valley rather wet this past month the systems will thrive going over land since vegetation will be rather healthy.

[MVWxObserver]

This week's pattern will make for an interesting Redlegs / Diamondbacks series.

Currently 70 here in G'ville.

[Bgoney]

.85" for the day so far, should have no problem being well over an inch by the morning.

[tron777]

Decent storm with prob 35-40 mph gusts. Heavy rain falling now with 0.20” so far. Just what the doc ordered! And a coup from the HRRR model!

Agreed. NAM did terrible

[tron777]

Good evening all! The severe threat is winding down but the heavy rain threat will continue for a good chunk of the night as the MCS works its way thru. The leading edge of that is approaching the I-65 Corridor, LOU area at this time. An inch plus looks easy for a lot of folks thru the morning.

[tron777]

This week's pattern will make for an interesting Redlegs / Diamondbacks series.

Currently 70 here in G'ville.

For sure... looking like some delays are likely this week. The only 100% dry days I see are Thurs and Sunday.

[tron777]

With the rain from earlier today and the ongoing rain at the moment I am standing at a little over .60. Should see another uptick later this evening and overnight with rainfall as the LLJ kicks in. I believe if the LLJ kicks in like expected this will slow down the front somewhat so folks further south and east could get in on some really decent rains. Where does the front stall on Tuesday and can we get some afternoon development of showers. I believe that is possible especially the further south you live. Then we wait on another rather strong system through here late Wednesday which could bring in some more heavy rainfall. Thursday and much of Friday looks dry and cool for this time of year and then another chance of rainfall late Friday and early Saturday. After that we wait and see how the pattern develops. I believe the ridge will start to expand next week but you can add some MCS''s to enter the picture. These systems will be able to tap some moisture and with the rockies,nothern and central plains and the Ohio Valley rather wet this past month the systems will thrive going over land since vegetation will be rather healthy.

I think we've got the forecast well in hand thru this weekend. What I am waiting to see is how far NE does the ridge get later next week and beyond? Like we discussed earlier today, do we see MCS's riding over the top of the heat dome if it's centered to our SW, or does the heat influence more of our pattern? If we stick with persistence, then you know how the overall pattern has been... active and if we do see heat, just little bouts of it. So for now, it would not surprise me one bit to see the core of the heat SW of us, we get a little taste every now and then, but that leaves the door open for MCS's to track thru the area from NW to SE. We shall see in about a weeks time how the 500 MB pattern looks. Both solutions are on the table (hot and dry or MCS Action).

[tron777]

CVG update: 0.44"
Me - 0.53"
Boone Co Mesonet Site: 0.52"

[Wxlrnr]

Sitting at 8 tens of an inch so far.

[cloudy72]

So the dome thankfully took yesterday off. My total currently sits at 0.75”.

[Bgoney]

Total of 1.70" here.

[tron777]

CVG checking in with a total of 0.77" Around 0.89' for me. More chances to occur later today once we heat back up with more scattered action. Should not be as widespread as yesterday. Due to clouds / rain chances, it'll be tough to get out of the 70s today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Look for scattered action as mentioned later today with likely POPS needed Wed afternoon and evening and again Friday afternoon and evening. Thurs looks nice. Saturday may also look good if the front clears in time. We may have a gorgeous weekend here in the 70s and lows in the 50s. 80s return as we roll into early next week.

Looking ahead... does the heat work in here towards the end of next week... or do we see MCS's spoiling the fun? Guidance continues to trend towards the wetter idea which has been the pattern all year. The core of the heat IMO stays over the SW US, Texas and S Plains area. We get continued NW flow with disturbances, or MCS's riding to the SE and diving into our area as the core of the heat stays to our West and SW. We'll see what the reality of it is down the road, but I currently just don't see this pattern giving up so easily.

[tron777]

As of 6/5, MJO is in Phase 8 and expected to take a tour thru Phase 1 then 2 by early July. If correct, I don't see this pattern changing anytime soon.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice dose of rainfall for most even though the folks between Dayton and Indy sort of got the shaft but with most systems there is a place that gets the shaft. Les mentioned the chance this afternoon of a scattered shower or thundershower but we wait until later Wednesday for the next chance of some nice rains. Then more chances later Friday into early Saturday. Are we going to start to see more ridging in the central USA? Part of that equation will have to be answered with the tropics. Will they get sort of busy next week especially in the southwest gulf area. Getting a system will boost the heights further north as we know but is this going to happen. Even without the tropics it seems there will be somewhat of a shift of the hotter air to move northeast as the southern plains really start to get hot. No doubt with the rainfall over a good part of the northern and central plains and us locally will at least give a push back to any longer term heat. With the vegetation going wild even with a ridge on top of you we can get enough lift in the afternoon to promote some showers and such a difference between a moist ground and dry ground.