Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 8:30 am Great map Les and can we get the low in the north to slow up just about 4-6 hours would be great.

Or have the southern wave speed up a bit. Either way would get the phasing to start earlier instead of on top of us.

Now that we can see the players on the field, let's see how the NAM gets things kicked off today.

NAM is coming in weaker / SE so let's hope this isn't a trend today.

An inch tops at CVG and that maybe generous.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:24 am An inch tops at CVG and that maybe generous.

No doubt the cold and drier air eats up the moisture on the northwest side. Is that possible and sure because as we have talked about all week this cold dip is near record cold and when we see this in January then we become cold and dry. In March the precip totals in the south are higher plus with us getting closer to spring you get the latitude movement further north. Is this run correct and lets see what the gfs and euro show.

Nam said "hold my beer".. lol Hopefully that isnt a trend

Nam with the wind up....and the pitch......curveball, on the outside corner , strike one.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:35 am Nam with the wind up....and the pitch......curveball, on the outside corner , strike one.

I could never hit the curve ball. Always way out in front. That is why my baseball career ended at age 8

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:35 am Nam with the wind up....and the pitch......curveball, on the outside corner , strike one.

I could never hit the curve ball. Always way out in front. That is why my baseball career ended at age 8

Lol, cause you were bailing out

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:38 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:36 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 9:35 am Nam with the wind up....and the pitch......curveball, on the outside corner , strike one.

I could never hit the curve ball. Always way out in front. That is why my baseball career ended at age 8

Lol, cause you were bailing out

Exactly and got hit in the helmet several times as we know pitchers at the age are a little wild. I was a horrible player but back then at age 6-8 the manager would always put me at second base because I was one of the few kids that knew the game and how to play but a horrible athlete. Once we weeded out all those kids then my career ended as those who made it to age 9 or 10 knew the game and were just must better.

Looking at the nam and really it had on the overnight model transfer energy much faster to the east coast. The latest keeps it on this side of the mountains longer which really helps eastern Kentucky but again with a stronger system on the west side of the mountains longer it looks to be bringing in drier air into the system quicker. So we are seeing a wide range of totals over say 100 miles.

RGEM finally has caved and has its 6" plus zone over the Apps / Eastern KY. Has the usual 2" here 3" out east scenario which is IMO correct.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:31 am RGEM finally has caved and has its 6" plus zone over the Apps / Eastern KY. Has the usual 2" here 3" out east scenario which is IMO correct.

Also look at the sref predictions. With the latest info has Indy under 1 inch as an average and Lexington over 6 inches. System stronger and further west but this is also bringing the cold air in faster and its also bringing drier air into the northwest side of the system.

its trending east. it now has my area in quite substantial snowfall . may be the biggest of the season if it keeps going east

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:39 am its trending east. it now has my area in quite substantial snowfall . may be the biggest of the season if it keeps going east

Great post and how can it trend west in one area and east in another. What is happening the system ramps up west of the apps later Friday and produces some decent snows for the eastern Ohio Valley. When it transfer energy this part of that system has gained more attention and looks to form more over the Atlantic Ocean then inland. So that is why folks up the east coast are starting to see higher totals forecast which is what we have been saying all along and could be a big northeast storm.

Kentucky/West Virginia special once again. It's how we started off this terrible winter and it looks like it's how we are going to end it.

No changes from the 12Z GFS. Still 0.24" of QPF for CVG.

NW cut off is a big trend now... so NW of the I-71 corridor will go from an inch to little to nothing very quickly as one heads north and west of the area. SE of I-71 the further one goes, especially east, is going to get the higher totals. 0.51" for FGX so the 4" call in the far SE is still attainable on 12Z GFS.

I have watching the cold air intrusion and projected temps and each day a little colder. Not by much but probably since Sunday the cold in the great lakes have seen overnight lows go down another 3-5 degrees. This is really cold for the middle of March and its a narrow arrow of cold but when you get the polar vortex involved just somewhat cold air can move south quickly.

Goal posts are narrowed as the CMC is like everyone else now too so the 1" West to 3" east call is money. I'm letting it ride. Will keep my 2" call for my hood and CVG intact.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:24 am Goal posts are narrowed as the CMC is like everyone else now too so the 1" West to 3" east call is money. I'm letting it ride. Will keep my 2" call for my hood and CVG intact.

Let It Ride which also is a great song by BTO. The call is looking good Les and the main item is how much snow falls with the cold front itself. A few days ago it was probably between 1/4 and 1/2 inch. Then we got more towards the 1 inch or a hair higher and today back to the lower amounts. Models having problem with how much of the cold and dry air is eating up precip.

I do want to see the Euro because it was in the 3 inch range overnight. Will it stay put or move slightly lower.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:24 am Goal posts are narrowed as the CMC is like everyone else now too so the 1" West to 3" east call is money. I'm letting it ride. Will keep my 2" call for my hood and CVG intact.

Let It Ride which also is a great song by BTO. The call is looking good Les and the main item is how much snow falls with the cold front itself. A few days ago it was probably between 1/4 and 1/2 inch. Then we got more towards the 1 inch or a hair higher and today back to the lower amounts. Models having problem with how much of the cold and dry air is eating up precip.

Love BTO! Some great music while driving on long trips.

12Z GEFS Mean shows <1" at Indy. 2" I-71 corridor and 3" extreme SE.

EU on the mound, the wind , the pitch,....
Wicked curveball right down broadway....strike two.