Absolute Vorticity

Nothing much for tomorrow, the wave dampens out. Then the problem we've got is arrival with wave 2. The slower it is, the more our surface temps can warm and it's rain with the Thurs afternoon / Fri morning action. My concern is this very outcome. Thurs AM is our best chance and if that current wave to our SW we're watching, if it weakens completely then we may just see rain only for round 2. I-70 Crew on north and esp west has best chances for impacts of course.

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:05 pm Who's been watching the radar? That blob of snow out to the west definitely is not what the models showed for the first wave.

It is forecast to weaken as it moves in. Models busted bad w/. temps today. Wonder if they will bust bad on this too? Nowcast for sure IMO. Models may struggle with this whole system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:08 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:05 pm Who's been watching the radar? That blob of snow out to the west definitely is not what the models showed for the first wave.

It is forecast to weaken as it moves in. Models busted bad w/. temps today. Wonder if they will bust bad on this too? Nowcast for sure IMO. Models may struggle with this whole system.

Yes we are 6 to 8 degrees off our forecasted high up here. Time will tell I guess.

A lot of models wait until after 1 or 2pm Thurs to bring in the stronger wave and by then we're at or above freezing so plain rain. Like 33 or 34 degrees. You need to be 30 or below for good impacts from this system. But again as discussed... these are models and to be on the safe side, we need to keep tabs on this system every hour to monitor changes. Look at the obvious changes already. Temps today and as JP mentioned, radar presentation.

Good Afternoon and some great posts folks. First the system to the west has been moving quicker than models showed. They still show it falling apart somewhat later tonight but does it have enough moisture left which could be the dreaded frz/dzl when it gets here. Usually a faster system like this will bring in a little more precip than the models show. Will need to watch surface reports later this evening. Les I agree the longer between round 1 and 2 the milder we end up. Still see that 36 and rain as a mainstay here locally and Dayton will be right on that 32-34 range. Indy I still expect an icy situation and not sure models are really picking up on that portion of the system.

30 here still for my high and current temp. That's it so far. Going to put some warm clothes on, fire up the grill and fry up some of my bluegill I got ice fishing for supper in some beer batter. YUM!

No advisories near us... closest is IND and East Central IN, N IN etc.

Wsw in Texas but it'll be to warm here for frozen precip this will probably go down as one of the most frustrating winters I've seen

My high was 43 at midnight and have been near 30 pretty much all afternoon here.

ILN taken all mention of ice out of my forecast

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:50 pm ILN taken all mention of ice out of my forecast

Here too!

If you are interested in seeing how different mets interpret forecast data, take a look at the forecast discussions for Indy and Wilmington. I think it is interesting.
ILN: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... hlight=off

And IND: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Talk about a garbage disposal storm!

For my area i.e. ~~

Thursday Night, especially ...

Sleet, freezing rain with a chance of snow in the evening, then freezing rain with a chance of sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation an inch or less. Ice accumulation of a tenth to one half of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation 100 percent.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:15 pm Talk about a garbage disposal storm!

For my area i.e. ~~

Thursday Night, especially ...

Sleet, freezing rain with a chance of snow in the evening, then freezing rain with a chance of sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation an inch or less. Ice accumulation of a tenth to one half of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation 100 percent.

Pretty sure they do not know what to think right now

heybert00 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:20 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:15 pm Talk about a garbage disposal storm!

For my area i.e. ~~

Thursday Night, especially ...

Sleet, freezing rain with a chance of snow in the evening, then freezing rain with a chance of sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation an inch or less. Ice accumulation of a tenth to one half of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation 100 percent.

Pretty sure they do not know what to think right now

They probably have to be on the side of caution and so like you said its still a toss up. Prayerfully the amount esp ICE will be lowered in tomorrow's update.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:01 pm

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:50 pm ILN taken all mention of ice out of my forecast

Here too!

Here three

18Z Euro has 0.07" tomorrow morning with 29-30 degree surface temps. A break, then the rest is plain rain and not a big deal.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:13 pm 18Z Euro has 0.07" tomorrow morning with 29-30 degree surface temps. A break, then the rest is plain rain and not a big deal.

Want to trade, bro?

Current reports out of SW KY:
And SW Indiana...

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:13 pm 18Z Euro has 0.07" tomorrow morning with 29-30 degree surface temps. A break, then the rest is plain rain and not a big deal.

Want to trade, bro?

No! I've had enough pingers and frz rainers. I want snow lol Want to trade with my cousin in Mich

From the boys as of 6:30pm:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Mid level shortwave energy streaming across the northwestern
third of the CWA tonight will result in low chances of
precipitation, but the chances are fairly equal in a
snow/freezing rain threat hitting areas west and north of the
Dayton metro area. The energy moves east and any precip should
be finished by daybreak. Not confident enough to issue any
headlines in this forecast package given model differences in
placement and a few that are quite sparing in any qpf during
this time frame.

Low temps will drop to the low 20s in the northwest, mid 20s
along the I-70 corridor, and upper 20s to around 30 elsewhere.

29 / 22 here, just kind of waiting to see what happens. Models are wrong with timing, it is coming in tonight and IMO it is not falling apart as quick as models expected. We'll see but Just my observations here. Any thoughts?

As of a couple hours ago per BG:

CB Evening Update showing snow flying out of Paducah and Ft. Campbell web cams:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=53314

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:35 pm 29 / 22 here, just kind of waiting to see what happens. Models are wrong with timing, it is coming in tonight and IMO it is not falling apart as quick as models expected. We'll see but Just my observations here. Any thoughts?

Doesn't look like it is losing any strength yet. Loading up with salt about midnight. We shall see what happens. This is for CMH. Interesting.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... =graphical

Good Evening and where the models got the forecast correct is the energy is dying and split off as forecast. Where the models got it wrong though was the timing and how quickly the precip came in but more important was the location and how both pieces of energy ended up well south of the forecast. Lets see what this does on Thursdays outcome.