Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:13 pm Major winter storm signal continues to show up on OP and Ensemble guidance 2/13-15th or so time frame.

Yea, I saw it a few days ago. It looked like the op gfs lost it but now it came back even stronger! I hope the city leaders are consulting with ILN as they prep for SB watch parties.

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:23 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:13 pm Major winter storm signal continues to show up on OP and Ensemble guidance 2/13-15th or so time frame.

Yea, I saw it a few days ago. It looked like the op gfs lost it but now it came back even stronger! I hope the city leaders are consulting with ILN as they prep for SB watch parties.

It's gonna change a lot, but it is worth keeping one eye open on it for now as our next potential thread starter.

Man I am so PUMPED! We have our current system. We've got an arctic front with a band of snow and squalls Feb 10th then a big dog signal again 13-15th time range. Hell yeah!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:13 pm Major winter storm signal continues to show up on OP and Ensemble guidance 2/13-15th or so time frame.

Bro, how's it looking for the Sat the 12th?

My dad plans to go to Indiana to start taking care of some business with his sis that day. Please say that it'll be dry and that Ma Nature will hold off until the 13th-15th time frame.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:42 pm Man I am so PUMPED! We have our current system. We've got an arctic front with a band of snow and squalls Feb 10th then a big dog signal again 13-15th time range. Hell yeah!

At this rate I may not see the ground up this way until sometime in April.

hope i get at least 2 inches of snow

im ready for a snow storm , broke the rope again on snow blower but it has electric start so its all good

About the 14th- my kids get a "Snow dey" for the Bengals... sounds like it could be an actual Snow DAY too! I'll start the requests to Mother Nature for no sleet and all snow now.

Les,

For the 13th - 15th period I'm going to be rooting for a big dog white gold Tri-state Special, bro!

North of 70 has theirs this time and its only fair for a fair trade off, I'd even take a sharp cutoff in exchange, for you guys and gals down that way to get a big dog King Midas WHITE GOLD TOUCH!!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:11 pm Les,

For the 13th - 15th period I'm going to be rooting for a big dog white gold Tri-state Special, bro!

North of 70 has theirs this time and its only fair for a fair trade off, I'd even take a sharp cutoff in exchange, for you guys and gals down that way to get a big dog King Midas WHITE GOLD TOUCH!!

Thank you Bro. 18Z GFS trying to bring it back. Long way to go on that one.

Super Bowl system or shortly after, still has legs even though surface maps don't show much the 500mb set-up looks potentially explosive with a nice western ridge and a still active sub tropical jet / split flow

That is my potential next period to watch for a nice storm East of the MS.

Looking at some of the models this morning, the temps into the 40s through mid week look way too bullish. It shows potential for a couple of clippers around the 11th and 13th, then another warm to cold setup with Ptype issues around the 16th or 17th.

Decent little clipper next Fri the 11th on the 12Z GFS.

Wouldn't be shocked if that clipper moved up in time as we go forward

SBS event showing up still. It looks like a carbon copy of the surprise 3 inch event we had last week. 500vort very similar, only stronger and better phase. I see another hunt or two coming up

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:41 am SBS event showing up still. It looks like a carbon copy of the surprise 3 inch event we had last week. 500vort very similar, only stronger and better phase. I see another hunt or two coming up


gfs_z500_vort_us_39.png

I've been liking the set up on this one. Just need that trough to sharpen up a bit faster and it could be a nice event!

Good Afternoon and we are back to our normal posting. So what is ahead for the next 2 weeks or so. Always looking upstream and at the moment parts of central Canada are very cold and you know that when they are getting an extreme cold alert for many locations. Saying that a big warm up for them as pacific air moves in and will push some of the cold air away for a short period of time. These kinds setups usually bring a more general trough over the eastern USA and this when you can get a clipper or two. Way too early to pinpoint one but models will try and show stronger pieces of energy from time to time. Also this time of year the STJ usually will no stay dormant to long so can we get that to hook up with some colder air. That would probably be later next week at the earliest but should be fun the next two weeks as winter is not going away just yet.

12Z Canadian has some rain to snow showers on the 11th with an arctic cold front then a clipper system dropping in for Valentine's Day. GEFS have the clipper also and about 4 members try and spin up a system on the 13th like the OP GFS had.

Currently 14 here in G'ville and progged to top at around 20 this afternoon.

2 above on tap for Sat morning.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:11 pm Les,

For the 13th - 15th period I'm going to be rooting for a big dog white gold Tri-state Special, bro!

North of 70 has theirs this time and its only fair for a fair trade off, I'd even take a sharp cutoff in exchange, for you guys and gals down that way to get a big dog King Midas WHITE GOLD TOUCH!!

It's time for SE Cincinnati and NKY to get theirs versus missing to the north, south, northwest, southwest.

Couple of weak systems swinging thru in the next 10 days on the Euro. Weak rain and snow amounts being shown at this time.

Good evening folks... 25 here today, 21 now. We will not go subzero tonight due to clouds. If we could clear out, with the snow / sleet glacier, we could easily drop to -5 to -10. It will be 5 to 10. Maybe zero Northern tier where the deeper snow cover is. Cold tomorrow, no thawing. Upper teens to the mid 20s. Sunday is our thaw day, mostly sunny and 35 to 40 degrees. We'll melt and begin the thawing process then. Refreeze Mon morning, be careful then thawing again Monday. Repeat process Tuesday, Wed etc. Normal temps in the 30s and 40s for highs. Lows in the single digits, will rise into the teens, then eventually the 20s late in the period.

Precipitation wise over the next week or so, looking quiet. Fast NW flow with some weak clippers zipping by. Low QPF and low to no impact systems. Next potential thread maker to me is still Superbowl weekend / Valentines Day period. Models showed a big storm, then took it away. Currently, its delayed until 19-21st which is my ice fishing trip to Michigan time period. We'll get plastered then you wait and see! Anyway.... those are the dates to watch for something halfway decent developing.

MJSun wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:39 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:11 pm Les,

For the 13th - 15th period I'm going to be rooting for a big dog white gold Tri-state Special, bro!

North of 70 has theirs this time and its only fair for a fair trade off, I'd even take a sharp cutoff in exchange, for you guys and gals down that way to get a big dog King Midas WHITE GOLD TOUCH!!

It's time for SE Cincinnati and NKY to get theirs versus missing to the north, south, northwest, southwest.

I totally agree, Mollie!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:31 pm

MJSun wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:39 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:11 pm Les,

For the 13th - 15th period I'm going to be rooting for a big dog white gold Tri-state Special, bro!

North of 70 has theirs this time and its only fair for a fair trade off, I'd even take a sharp cutoff in exchange, for you guys and gals down that way to get a big dog King Midas WHITE GOLD TOUCH!!

It's time for SE Cincinnati and NKY to get theirs versus missing to the north, south, northwest, southwest.

I totally agree, Mollie!

Thank you all! Winter is not over yet!