Absolute Vorticity

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:42 pm What is our current surface temp.? I can't find my link . Thanks

I'm using the SPC meso page:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanal ... 0&source=1.#


CVG obs:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCVG.html

Or are you looking for something more specific, Byron?

Radar trends show the precip shield beginning to consolidate and come together and I must say this is way N of modeling. Models aren't even close per radar presentation. Post obs this evening please folks. Want to see how radar is lining up with your location. If your location is not in your profile so we can see it or in your forum signature, please add it. If you don't know what to do, ask me. Thanks! Let's continue to watch this unfold.

Watching radar... IND down to 28 as of 5pm but not seeing any reports of snow. I assume virga? This is why ground reports are essential tonight. Radar shows rain over me and it's doing nothing. So we are beginning to saturate the column now. If precip reaches the ground at your location, please post what it is. Let's work together and really nowcast this thing guys!

KY obs that are reporting precip are all rain. Owensboro rain and 37. LOU 46 and LEX 44 - light rain.

CB posted this a couple hours ago. From their in house IBM Model -


Does anybody believe this?

Updated 700 MB frontogenisis. I like it, I like it!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:45 pm

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:42 pm What is our current surface temp.? I can't find my link . Thanks

I'm using the SPC meso page:

CVG obs:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCVG.html

Or are you looking for something more specific, Byron?

No, This is perfect. Thanks, just couldn't find it!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:17 pm CB posted this a couple hours ago. From their in house IBM Model -


IBMModelFromCB.jpg


Does anybody believe this?

I wish I had and in house model. I do that would be my wife

Down to 38 here

Btw I do not believe CB'S in house model. Again there may be a place or two that get over 4 inches in eastern Kentucky but most will end up in that 2-3 inch range. Locally no reason to change imo. The cold front today was sort of just laying there north of us but in the last few hours we are starting to see that northeast to southwest line and to me this shows the cold is making a move. Locally anything over 1 inch is a plus but still my main concern is icing and the NWS seems to get this wrong almost all the time and though its been mild today the ground will quickly cool down because this air mass is cold and dense and will to the ground very easily.

39 in Ripley...down 4 degrees rather quickly

I agree Tim, not buying it either. 41 here and at CVG.

As of 6:35pm from the boys:

Mid level energy is streaming rain towards southern CWA this
late day and evening. Combined with a frontal passage this early
evening, any rain will rapidly change to snow. A northwestern
extent this rain and/or snow will be found with little to no
precipitation expected along and northwest of a line extending
from Batesville to Xenia to Columbus. A winter weather advisory
has been hoisted and remains in effect for far southern CWA,
with a sharp gradient expected where a dusting to less than an
inch of snow is found, running along a sw-ne line crossing
through the southern suburbs of Cincinnati and Chillicothe.

Temperatures ahead of the front are remaining in the lower to
middle 40s and will likely linger warmer than what the forecast
has, even in the immediate short term. Once winds shift
northwest, expect readings to quickly drop through the 30s, and
this early evening will see the changeover to snow for the tri-
state, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky.

Overnight lows were dropped lower than guidance and were
generally fairly uniform near 15 degrees given advection and the
deeper snow pack found over southern Ohio and northern Kentucky.

Anybody seeing any precip? Radar has light snow over SE IN and NW of Cincy. N Cincy burbs. Rain over NKY and SE Crew. No precip reports out of IN. In KY CVG is cloudy rain south of us everywhere else minus flurries and 31 at Paducah.

39 / 28 here

Rain / Snow line now just getting into our NW counties. 1300 thickness line per meso page. Weak low of 1014 MB over NW AL as well. That is a nice touch.

Sitting here on the outside looking in. Nothing going on here in CMH

Watching radar trends to the SW. Nice band of snow over MO, S ILL getting into SW IN. IF the forecast is going to pan out, need a NE progression versus pure east.

Delivering in Reading and nothing falling from the sky. Unlike my Sunday at this time.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:41 pm Watching radar trends to the SW. Nice band of snow over MO, S ILL getting into SW IN. IF the forecast is going to pan out, need a NE progression versus pure east.

From my untrained eye, it sure looks like everything is moving straight East. I hope I’m wrong

No precip yet here

31 degrees here in Somerville. Nothing falling

Looking like a bust.

I think we’ll not get anything.

Been sitting 39 degrees for 2 hours now.