Absolute Vorticity

Winds picking up here at the woodpile. The tire swing is swinging!

Light rain/snow mixed at the Dayton Airport now.

ILN forecasts updated. This is for Fairfield (45014). I was previously, 1-3 tomorrow and <1 tomorrow night. Total was 2-4. Looks like 4-8 now.

Hopefully all are increased and not just Butler county per NAM.

Tonight
Rain before 3am, then sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low around 27. North wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday
Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 2pm. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. High near 27. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Areas of blowing snow before 11pm. Low around 17. Blustery, with a north wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

wxnut wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:28 pm ILN forecasts updated. This is for Fairfield (45014). I was previously, 1-3 tomorrow and <1 tomorrow night. Total was 2-4. Looks like 4-8 now.

Hopefully all are increased and not just Butler county per NAM.

Tonight
Rain before 3am, then sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain. Low around 27. North wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Thursday
Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 2pm. The snow and sleet could be heavy at times. High near 27. Blustery, with a northeast wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow. Areas of blowing snow before 11pm. Low around 17. Blustery, with a north wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday
Snow likely, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Forecast for 45014 last updated at 10:10 PM. 45202 was 5:52 PM. Hopefully more updates coming from the boys for those further south

INZ073-074-OHZ063>065-070>072-077-031130-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.W.0003.220203T0500Z-220204T1200Z/
Ripley-Dearborn-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Hamilton-
Including the cities of Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Washington Court House, Circleville,
Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford,
Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester,
and Cincinnati
1016 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to
three tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph on
Thursday.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana and Central and
Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall below zero
degrees Friday night into Saturday morning.

I went from 1-3” snow to 3-7” of sleet/snow

They re-issued the warnings as well with updated totals. Most appeared to be higher.

GFS doesn't disappoint. Consistent as can be. Another good run, especially for Dayton!

Approximately 10pm temperatures started dropping quickly here. Was 42, now currently right at the 32 mark.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:00 pm NAM stalls the sleet line along I-71. Ice storm SE of there Snow storm NW of there.

Lebanon always seems to be on that line!

ILN just updated the totals

https://www.weather.gov/iln/winter

4 to 6 in hamilton county

Just finished driving from Troy to Brookville. Truck thermometer said 32 the whole way with freezing rain. Front of the truck and mirrors covered with ice. Roads still ok with no icing experienced.

Just came in from salting. Freezing rain/drizzle. Temp at 30°. Ice accretion looks to be significant on vehicles, grass, trees and power lines. Roads and even untreated lots are still ok. A couple of spots that are in open areas have ice forming on pavement.

Back up and out on the roads. Freezing rain. Treated surfaces are good atm. Untreated roads are treacherous. 28° and moderate frz rain. If you have to go out please be safe.

NAM has caved to the other snowier models.

Dr. No (Euro) continues to paint 10-12" across the metro...

Euro has us changing to snow around 2pm or so -- earlier than most models.

00z GFS has us changing to snow between 4-6pm

What is likely to happen later is after a few hours of all sleet, there will be periods when the precipitation rates are so heavy that we switch back and fourth between sleet and snow for a time before switching to all snow as thermals cool off enough. When that happens will dictate how much snow we receive. The trends over the last couple of days have been for more snow, and that has continued with the overnight runs (adding in the NAM).

The global models (especially the GFS) have been remarkably consistent for days on this. Some of the high resolution/mesoscale models are joining their camp as I mentioned. Nowcast time, though the 12z model runs will be important still in seeing if they sniff out any minor adjustments.

03z SREF mean 12-hr snowfall has increased slightly to a 6-7" average for Cincinnati, with a 75% chance for >4" of snow.

00z high-res Canadian also shows a couple inches of snow, but is one of the lighter models at this point.

That should just about cover most of the overnight/morning model info. Early start today

Here's Wilmington's latest forecast, updated earlier this hour. They've increased snowfall amounts for all areas vs. yesterday.

Thanks for all that, Trevor