Absolute Vorticity

markalot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 1:54 pm Almost stopped here in Oakbrook. A small hole in the action, then it looks like some really juicy returns headed this way.

This is the TCVG radar, accurate very close, further out not so much.

I take that back, this radar now seems to be having issues picking up echos on the NW side. lol. Bigger flakes here now as well.

ILN

In honor of Les!!!

Those returns S of Bloomington IN is the good stuff! Cannot wait until those get here. Probably seeing 1/2 to 1" per hour rates until then. The good stuff IMO is going to be 1-2" per hour and yes I predict that for CVG / Cincy. Been saying it since yesterday in fact. It's already happened to our SW with 8" reports occurring.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:01 pm In honor of Les!!!

LOL! Thanks Pete!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 1:40 pm First plow of the day on my street now.

Plow came down my street about an hour ago and you can’t even tell.

Those monster returns are from Central IN all the way back into Central MO, a short pause then the backside in KS with light to mod action there. Storm evolution thus far is darn near perfect for our area!

Intensity here has picked up a notch. Borderline mod almost hvy snow. Oh man this is getting good!

Barely snowing here in Middletown now. Hope we don’t bust on the low side. I need the snow day(s)…

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:08 pm Intensity here has picked up a notch. Borderline mod almost hvy snow. Oh man this is getting good!

Love it Les and did you see the returns from St.Louis. Very heavy snow going around that area

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:08 pm Intensity here has picked up a notch. Borderline mod almost hvy snow. Oh man this is getting good!

Love it Les and did you see the returns from St.Louis. Very heavy snow going around that area

Yep! My Aunt in St Charles reported thundersnow in the last hour. They are getting 2"+ per hour rates.

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:11 pm Barely snowing here in Middletown now. Hope we don’t bust on the low side. I need the snow day(s)…

You'll get that snow day lol Patience.

About a half inch near Kings Island. Started about 11am, been steadily lightly falling since. Was a snow /sleet mix for the first 2 hours. Changed to bigger flakes now. Very pretty looking out the window though.

Even Owensboro still reporting snow and they were forecast to be mainly frz/rain all afternoon. They have had some frz/rain but this back and forth tells me system is developing further south and that is great news for us in terms of precip type may stay mainly snow until after midnight when you lose the moisture for a period of time

Intensity of returns locally have for the most part been in the 15-25 Dbz range . Those heavier bands moving closer to our west are 30-40 Dbz

3 inches so far in Williamstown and just got plowed on our street for the first time.

Low over Central AR is down to 1004 MB. The track to me is perfect for a major Cincinnati region snow storm. Little Rock to Nashville to Middleboro, KY and into S WV. Let's see how that stacks up in the coming hours to what happens in reality. If we can get that track, double digits are guaranteed in my honest opinion by Monday evening.

allowat3 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:16 pm 3 inches so far in Williamstown and just got plowed on our street for the first time.

So glad it is snow for you thus far Mark. Please let us know your precip type as the event rolls on!

Round 1 of Man vs. Driveway has been won by Man. I fear that will not be the case as we get to this evening. Will definitely keep trying though!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:08 pm Intensity here has picked up a notch. Borderline mod almost hvy snow. Oh man this is getting good!

Hey Les! Does this concern you at all?

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:08 pm Intensity here has picked up a notch. Borderline mod almost hvy snow. Oh man this is getting good!

Love it Les and did you see the returns from St.Louis. Very heavy snow going around that area

Yep! My Aunt in St Charles reported thundersnow in the last hour. They are getting 2"+ per hour rates.

Les you can see that flow straight off the GOM coming right into St Louis. Hopefully we see this later today

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:08 pm Intensity here has picked up a notch. Borderline mod almost hvy snow. Oh man this is getting good!

Hey Les! Does this concern you at all?

Not for my hood no. But for yours, it'll let up for a bit but look to the west / SW from there. It'll come! You'll get enough for a snow day and to shovel too. It'll take longer for it to get good though.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:19 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:11 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:08 pm Intensity here has picked up a notch. Borderline mod almost hvy snow. Oh man this is getting good!

Love it Les and did you see the returns from St.Louis. Very heavy snow going around that area

Yep! My Aunt in St Charles reported thundersnow in the last hour. They are getting 2"+ per hour rates.

Les you can see that flow straight off the GOM coming right into St Louis. Hopefully we see this later today

Right up the MS River Valley Tim! A textbook, classic snow storm for our part of the country! It doesn't get much better to be honest set up wise and storm evolution. Not quite as amped as some models but not weak as others. Middle of the road approach worked nicely when trying to figure out this system.

Once this forcing gets over us guys, you think it's snowing good now, you ain't seen nothing yet!

Indy radar gives a better picture of the heavier batch to the west that will hit parts of CVGland

Current SLP position and my guess to its track.