Absolute Vorticity

Wave 2 - OKC 20 and heavy snow - Nice! Little Rock, AR at 32 now

I think forcest is a pretty solid models have a good handle on it right now. I dont see many changes with 1-3" most likely south of I70

Tim... There's the gap between the two waves that you have mentioned before.

43 / 42 here and 0.93" of rain

I think the advancemetn of the freezing line is going to meet more resistance the closer it gets to OHIO,

My TWC app forecast now says "8-12 inches of snow and ice" overnight and into tomorrow and then "Snow accumulating 1-3 inches" tomorrow night. Yikes, no wonder Jim C is on his way.

8pm

Paducah 31 and frz rain
Henderson -32 mixed precip
Lima, OH 33 - light snow
IND - 28 - frz rain
Muncie 30 - Light snow
Shelbyville 34 - frz rain (Probably rain I guess lol anyway...)
Bloomington - 31 frz rain
Evansville 32 - mixed precip

42.8 and .94” of rain

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:11 pm Tim... There's the gap between the two waves that you have mentioned before.



Wave Gap.png

Thanks Les and still believe that is a key to the forecast. I hope this time between the waves is longer.

jjfight wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:17 pm My TWC app forecast now says "8-12 inches of snow and ice" overnight and into tomorrow and then "Snow accumulating 1-3 inches" tomorrow night. Yikes, no wonder Jim C is on his way.

5-8" for me and 1/4" of ice. Agree w/ice part. Snow I dunno man lol Like I said before, I am happy with 4" here. We'll see though. There can be surprises.

8:19pm, 41.2 degrees 1.10 “waiting on temps to begin to drop.

MD issued for frz rain in TEX now

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0113.html

39 degrees here and almost an inch of rain.

21Z SREF bumps up the mean from previous run...

There will be busts and hopefully we are to keep up on the changes during the storm Thursday. The front comes through and that is the easy part of the forecast. Where it stalls before the second wave starts to make its trek northeast is all about timing. I know the models continue with the sleet fest and yes I gave into that as well but probably not to the full extent the models showed. I understand with this second wave that once it heads northeast you can get into the old whatever is falling at the time may be your precip type for several hours. So is that several hours 4 hours of sleet or 8 hours locally. Still believe just northwest of where the sleet is someone is getting on some great snow totals. The height of the storm is not until later in the afternoon and early evening and how will the atmosphere look at that time.

21Z SREF snowfall mean

CVG - 3.8"
HAO - 6"
MGY - 6.8"
DAY - 8"
CMH - 5.9"

9" mean for Sidney
10" Findley
9.3" IND

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:28 pm 21Z SREF snowfall mean

CVG - 3.8"
HAO - 6"
MGY - 6.8"
DAY - 8"
CMH - 5.9"

Les these keep going up with every run and its really not because a member that is out of whack. This is a trend you must pay attention too. Matter of fact 3-5 inches is very common among the members and yes a few near 10 inches but also a few near 0

NAM's gonna be fun! Want to see that before bed. Gonna be along day tomorrow working and tracking this lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:33 pm NAM's gonna be fun! Want to see that before bed. Gonna be along day tomorrow working and tracking this lol

Les we live for these kind of storms and we get so few that it makes it even more exciting.

North west wind at KDAY now so temp there should be dropping shortly

Currently narrow area of frz rain here in G'ville and at 32.

All other schools here in Darke now closed tomorrow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:33 pm NAM's gonna be fun! Want to see that before bed. Gonna be along day tomorrow working and tracking this lol

Les we live for these kind of storms and we get so few that it makes it even more exciting.

I love it Tim. I love this time of year! I love this forum and everything about it. I love snow! We have this system. Feb 10th arctic front snow blast. Big dog signal Superbowl weekend. I have an ice fishing trip planned to Mich Pres Day weekend. So excited!

Our schools here in Miamisburg closed tomorrow as pretty much every school district in Dayton area are closed as well

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:37 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:33 pm NAM's gonna be fun! Want to see that before bed. Gonna be along day tomorrow working and tracking this lol

Les we live for these kind of storms and we get so few that it makes it even more exciting.

I love it Tim. I love this time of year! I love this forum and everything about it. I love snow! We have this system. Feb 10th arctic front snow blast. Big dog signal Superbowl weekend. I have an ice fishing trip planned to Mich Pres Day weekend. So excited!

Sounds great Les and hope we do have another true 6 weeks of winter. My wife and I will be heading to Orlando the last full week of March. Staying at a nice Marriott resort area and traveling first class which will be a first for my wife and I.