Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:39 am A foot on the 9Z SREF mean for CVG. Wowza! It has that period of light sleet overnight then back to snow on Monday. Love the idea. My call has been that precip type solution too since yesterday. Virtually all models are showing it now.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:39 am A foot on the 9Z SREF mean for CVG. Wowza! It has that period of light sleet overnight then back to snow on Monday. Love the idea. My call has been that precip type solution too since yesterday. Virtually all models are showing it now.

Les what a great call. My biggest strength is watching pattern and that part has played out well. You and others on here do so well with models and the shorter term. I believe we have a great team that works together and though sometime thoughts are different that is okay and matter of fact makes it a better forum imo.

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:40 am Nothing here in Middletown yet.

snowlover wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:47 am Light snow has started on the northeast side of town. I think I’m more excited for the snow than the kids are….

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:48 am

snowlover wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:47 am Light snow has started on the northeast side of town. I think I’m more excited for the snow than the kids are….

You know it, Curtis! We live for these moments and treasure them because they do not come around very often.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:47 am Late morning update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ongoing fcst remains largely on track. Incoming SN band is
battling quite a bit of LL dry air, as sampled by the KILN
05.12z RAOB, which showed a very dry profile in the lowest
6-8kft. This dry layer aloft will slowly erode into mid
afternoon, particularly across SE IN, N KY, and far SW OH, but
do think the snow band will struggle to make any real concerted
efforts to move into WC or central OH until early this evening.
The ENE flow is the lowest several thousand feet is going to
work against moisture advection into the column above the lowest
levels, suggesting that WC and central OH may stay mostly dry
through 21z. PoPs were adjusted subtly to reflect this latest
thinking regarding onset of the steadier/accumulating snow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:56 am Large storms tend to move slower and no doubt this one is a slow mover. Talking about maybe 30-35 hours where precip is falling. That does not happen often around here unless we get a nice rain storm in the spring. We saw the energy off the west coast as the storm came ashore so getting some lightning and thunder is possible and yes the severe side in the south has increased as well. Energy,energy, energy is always key

snowlover wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:48 am

snowlover wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:47 am Light snow has started on the northeast side of town. I think I’m more excited for the snow than the kids are….

You know it, Curtis! We live for these moments and treasure them because they do not come around very often.

Exactly! I’m tired of saying “next winter we’re gonna get a decent storm”. We’re way overdue!!!!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:42 am The mixing line moved about 50 miles NE in the last 6 hours so it will head this way. If we can keep that rate slow like that, we are going to do very well with this system my friends.

MJSun wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 11:22 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:42 am The mixing line moved about 50 miles NE in the last 6 hours so it will head this way. If we can keep that rate slow like that, we are going to do very well with this system my friends.

What does that mean- more chance of sleet for Metro?

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:59 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:56 am Large storms tend to move slower and no doubt this one is a slow mover. Talking about maybe 30-35 hours where precip is falling. That does not happen often around here unless we get a nice rain storm in the spring. We saw the energy off the west coast as the storm came ashore so getting some lightning and thunder is possible and yes the severe side in the south has increased as well. Energy,energy, energy is always key

Yep. I wasn't seeing it (the thunder snow risk) at the time, but I think Alex was mentioning it the other day. I thought at that time, it would be a very low chance. Thinking a moderate chance now that we could see that late this afternoon and evening. We will see 1-2" per hour from SW to NE across the area (Cincy Land) after 12pm or so today, give or take.