Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:08 am I checked the NAM soundings. I'm not very impressed. Bad timing since it's coming overnight Friday.

Agreed. Best chance western counties. Still think there will be a couple thunderstorm warnings in the local area, though. Shear is very high and 850mb winds are going to be strong so it won’t take too much to get some severe gusts to the surface in any stronger cells.

Timing and little CAPE will keep things in the isolated to scattered severe category here versus a much more serious event if those two things were not the case.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:59 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 9:08 am I checked the NAM soundings. I'm not very impressed. Bad timing since it's coming overnight Friday.

Agreed. Best chance western counties. Still think there will be a couple thunderstorm warnings in the local area, though. Shear is very high and 850mb winds are going to be strong so it won’t take too much to get some severe gusts to the surface in any stronger cells.

Timing and little CAPE will keep things in the isolated to scattered severe category here versus a much more serious event if those two things were not the case.

Agreed... western counties could see a warning or two. No doubt. Storms should begin to weaken once they cross I-65.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 5:45 am Overnight models continue to sing the same tune re: severe threat here for Friday night. NAM brings in the line around 2am so obviously bad timing there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple thunderstorm warnings in the local area but that should be about it. Then high winds kick in Saturday morning into the afternoon with 40-50+ gusts expected.

Look for a High Wind Warning on Sat!

Millions in the metropolitan areas of Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York City and Washington, D.C., will be impacted. Strong crosswinds will also impact travel in the area to close out the week and start the weekend, including on portions of interstates 64, 70, 71, 76, 80, 81, 90 and 95.

I could see a high wind warning being issued for N counties and an advisory across the south on Saturday.

https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmer2.0? ... W&__tn__=-]C%2CP-y-R

Reed Timmer discussion re Fri and next week.

Euro passes the front thru about 1 or 2 am Fri night. That's much faster. Still would mean sloppy seconds on t-storms though,

Supercell-palooza on the 00z HRRR. This run smacks Chicago pretty hard. Wowzers.

For us, the same outcome we’ve been talking about for days. Weakening line of storms with isolated severe possible overnight.

Good Morning and a nice band of rain showers moving through this morning. Looks like a true spring day with showers and later today thundershowers move through from time to time. The severe aspect will be overnight into very early Saturday morning. We know the winds are going to be strong but what about tornado's. This kind of set up will no doubt have some tornado's with the line moving through but usually they are the quick spin up that normally are the weakest of tornado's so F-0 or F-1. Bad news it will be at nighttime.

Saturday a very windy day and maybe a shower or snow flake mixed in but the wind is the story. We do warm up next week and will post in the April section later concerning what may or may not happen.

0.21" at last check so far with this system. Light rain still falling. I think we've got the forecast well in hand for the last day of March. Showers this morning a small break then isolated severe tonight. Pretty good call IMO.

Yeah if I was chasing today I would def target far eastern Iowa into Northern Illinois. I think that will be the hotspot today with numerous TOR reports possible.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:59 am Yeah if I was chasing today I would def target far eastern Iowa into Northern Illinois. I think that will be the hotspot today with numerous TOR reports possible.

I agree. That should be the location of the triple point. Should be a good area for spinners.

CVG checking in with 0.24" as of 8am.

Whoa - updated day 1 outlook! Big eastward shift in SLGT and ENH risks.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 8:31 am Whoa - updated day 1 outlook! Big eastward shift in SLGT and ENH risks.


OH_swody1.png

Wow! I was not expecting that! Wind damage is their primary concern East of I-65. I think the best tornado threat remains West of I-65.

I agree with the new outlook. The timing is speeding up and a little more CAPE looks to get involved. Still low amounts but it doesn’t take a lot to maintain a strong line once it gets going. Our threat is definitely increasing. Damaging winds the main threat, secondary threat being isolated weak spinners with any kinks in the line. Best chance west but all stand at least a chance.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 9:21 am I agree with the new outlook. The timing is speeding up and a little more CAPE looks to get involved. Still low amounts but it doesn’t take a lot to maintain a strong line once it gets going. Our threat is definitely increasing. Damaging winds the main threat, secondary threat being isolated weak spinners with any kinks in the line. Best chance west but all stand at least a chance.

Perfect post and I agree as the timing has sped up somewhat. This time of year these lines once they form can last later into the evening and early overnight so I agree with this post and the updated outlook.

One thing I mentioned yesterday was we could get some clearing later this afternoon. There is some clearing over southern Illinois this morning. We have another round of showers to move through here over the next 2-3 hours but can we get into that clearing which will no doubt enhance showers and thundershowers. The sun is getting stronger each day and this time of year it can bully itself rather easy. Watch between say 3-5 pm and if we get that hour or two of sun this can only add fire to the fuel.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:22 am One thing I mentioned yesterday was we could get some clearing later this afternoon. There is some clearing over southern Illinois this morning. We have another round of showers to move through here over the next 2-3 hours but can we get into that clearing which will no doubt enhance showers and thundershowers. The sun is getting stronger each day and this time of year it can bully itself rather easy. Watch between say 3-5 pm and if we get that hour or two of sun this can only add fire to the fuel.

Hey Tim, I just had a thunder shower, that thunder was loud. Now it's pouring again!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 11:20 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 31, 2023 10:22 am One thing I mentioned yesterday was we could get some clearing later this afternoon. There is some clearing over southern Illinois this morning. We have another round of showers to move through here over the next 2-3 hours but can we get into that clearing which will no doubt enhance showers and thundershowers. The sun is getting stronger each day and this time of year it can bully itself rather easy. Watch between say 3-5 pm and if we get that hour or two of sun this can only add fire to the fuel.

Hey Tim, I just had a thunder shower, that thunder was loud. Now it's pouring again!

Hey Joe,hope all is going well my friend. I got a heavy shower but no thunder. Just looking to the sky later this afternoon to see if that clearing is able to make it here.

ALERT:

Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern
Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri

Concerning...Outlook upgrade

Valid 311537Z - 311630Z

SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA,
northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a
categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook.

DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30%
probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental
conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential
for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes
across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far
northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for
more information.

Seeing some more steady rain here.

Everyone is under an enhanced risk now from the SPC with the moderate risk over IN almost to our Western counties. I've had nothing but steady rain most of the day, still is raining here as of this post. I sure question the amount of CAPE we receive.

Good Afternoon and the clouds are holding steady. The breaks over western Ky and southern Illinois are starting to become less though no doubt the amount of time they saw sun boosted up the CAPE in that area. Dew points are rising quickly in that area but may be a saving grace for us later today. I know Paducah NWS is really worried and calling this a very dangerous outlook. My guess is with the recent past down there you may overstate it somewhat but they are in a good position to get hit with some rough weather. We just wait and so far I have received 0.17 inches of rainfall but only got 0.09 with the first round this morning.

0.44" now at CVG. Still seeing light rain IMBY. It's been raining more often then not around here today.