Absolute Vorticity

Josh351m wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:08 am We got around 3 inches so far in Dillsboro In

Thanks so much for the post. Banding is a lovely thing if you can get and so happy many folks ended up with the banding.

Getting some pretty snowfall in Batavia

2+" in Somerville. Roads covered

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:12 am

Josh351m wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:08 am We got around 3 inches so far in Dillsboro In

Thanks so much for the post. Banding is a lovely thing if you can get and so happy many folks ended up with the banding.

Wow! One of the higher totals I have seen. Outstanding!

cincy bud wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:47 am 2+" in Somerville. Roads covered

Perfect Bud!

A quick check at next week's storm and I am still seeing snow to rain to snow type of situation on most of the data. GFS still tracking the low near or NW of us. CMC, GEFS, EPS were a bit SE of us but still too close for all snow. But it's close. Euro tracks the low a hair SE of us so it's also still too close. UKIE had the best case scenario for us the last two runs and for the 0Z run last night, still has it way SE of all other model guidance. Low tracks up thru Middle TN into Eastern KY, SE Ohio towards Pittsburgh. Big snow hit for us! We shall see if the UKIE can score one for us or does it trend NW towards the rest of the guidance?

nice updates by everyone. expecting start time around 4 pm here. not expecting much accumulation before changing to rain. maybe a better shot coming wednesday

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:04 am A quick check at next week's storm and I am still seeing snow to rain to snow type of situation on most of the data. GFS still tracking the low near or NW of us. CMC, GEFS, EPS were a bit SE of us but still too close for all snow. But it's close. Euro tracks the low a hair SE of us so it's also still too close. UKIE had the best case scenario for us the last two runs and for the 0Z run last night, still has it way SE of all other model guidance. Low tracks up thru Middle TN into Eastern KY, SE Ohio towards Pittsburgh. Big snow hit for us! We shall see if the UKIE can score one for us or does it trend NW towards the rest of the guidance?

Les the piece of energy is onshore over eastern Washington I believe is correct. That will dive southeast and how far south it goes will become part of the forecast for mid-week. Going to be fun and excited to see the mid-day models and hopefully with the energy coming onshore models will narrow down the path but we are still over 2 days away.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:14 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:04 am A quick check at next week's storm and I am still seeing snow to rain to snow type of situation on most of the data. GFS still tracking the low near or NW of us. CMC, GEFS, EPS were a bit SE of us but still too close for all snow. But it's close. Euro tracks the low a hair SE of us so it's also still too close. UKIE had the best case scenario for us the last two runs and for the 0Z run last night, still has it way SE of all other model guidance. Low tracks up thru Middle TN into Eastern KY, SE Ohio towards Pittsburgh. Big snow hit for us! We shall see if the UKIE can score one for us or does it trend NW towards the rest of the guidance?

Les the piece of energy is onshore over eastern Washington I believe is correct. That will dive southeast and how far south it goes will become part of the forecast for mid-week. Going to be fun and excited to see the mid-day models and hopefully with the energy coming onshore models will narrow down the path but we are still over 2 days away.

I'm pulling for the UKIE's solution naturally. But you are absolutely right. The energy is onshore as you said. The upper low per SPC mesoanalysis is over Idaho dropping southward and we would like to see it dig down into Mexico for the UKIE solution to have a chance. You can see the upper trough digging nicely on this water vapor loop:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=12

Have no ideal what the models will show but yesterday they ended up a little southeast from the previous day. A few reasons and one the low itself is further south from the day before and the timing of this system getting stronger was further east. Another key point is looking north into Canada. A few smaller system moving through southern Canada and why does this matter. A couple of days ago the models showed I believe a 1036 high located there and the models were cutting the system towards the lakes though it could only go so far north. What I saw yesterday was a 1027 high so the system can move towards that area a little easier and though it still heads north the progress northward is not quite what it was the day before. Will this continue and just stay tune.

Almost my perfect day with snow and football and a few beers as well

So beautiful here in Warren County between Morrow and Blanchester

Closing in on 4”in Oxford 30.1 degrees

The lovely Nam which I just threw out the window is showing the mid-week system in pretty much the same track but the system itself not as strong as shown the past 2 days

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:44 am The lovely Nam which I just threw out the window is showing the mid-week system in pretty much the same track but the system itself not as strong as shown the past 2 days

Yeah, the low rolls right up the OH River / I-71 corridor. No good for all snow of course. Still not ruling out that SE bump just yet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:04 am A quick check at next week's storm and I am still seeing snow to rain to snow type of situation on most of the data. GFS still tracking the low near or NW of us. CMC, GEFS, EPS were a bit SE of us but still too close for all snow. But it's close. Euro tracks the low a hair SE of us so it's also still too close. UKIE had the best case scenario for us the last two runs and for the 0Z run last night, still has it way SE of all other model guidance. Low tracks up thru Middle TN into Eastern KY, SE Ohio towards Pittsburgh. Big snow hit for us! We shall see if the UKIE can score one for us or does it trend NW towards the rest of the guidance?

Don't you all usually say the "cold follows cold"? If that's the case, lets get this storm out of the way and see if we can't get a little SE of what models are showing. No one was really expecting what we are seeing this AM, so maybe we can pull off an epic week of snow!?!?

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:04 am A quick check at next week's storm and I am still seeing snow to rain to snow type of situation on most of the data. GFS still tracking the low near or NW of us. CMC, GEFS, EPS were a bit SE of us but still too close for all snow. But it's close. Euro tracks the low a hair SE of us so it's also still too close. UKIE had the best case scenario for us the last two runs and for the 0Z run last night, still has it way SE of all other model guidance. Low tracks up thru Middle TN into Eastern KY, SE Ohio towards Pittsburgh. Big snow hit for us! We shall see if the UKIE can score one for us or does it trend NW towards the rest of the guidance?

Don't you all usually say the "cold follows cold"? If that's the case, lets get this storm out of the way and see if we can't get a little SE of what models are showing. No one was really expecting what we are seeing this AM, so maybe we can pull off an epic week of snow!?!?

Storms in the winter like to follow the southern end of snow packs. If the system is too strong then again it will find a way to move more northwest. Hope this next system is somewhat weaker and so far the models have been trending that way. Still too early as the piece of energy is many many miles away but it does look impressive and will just need to regroup after it crosses the Rocky Mountains.

12Z RGEM tracks the low thru Central KY into Central Ohio. Still snow to rain to snow, but it is close! Another nail biter in the works IMO.

The Gfs has moved back to the stronger and further northwest track with this system. Still some snow on the front and back end but time wise is not many hours of snow. The High in southeast Canada is stronger and I usually like that because it feeds cold air into our area but where it is located is important as well.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am The Gfs has moved back to the stronger and further northwest track with this system. Still some snow on the front and back end but time wise is not many hours of snow. The High in southeast Canada is stronger and I usually like that because it feeds cold air into our area but where it is located is important as well.

You beat me to it! GFS continues to ramp this thing up too early. So we have the GFS further NW and as of last night, the UKMET furtherest SE. CMC and Euro (overnight runs) are in between. GEFS is well SE of the GFS Operational. Look at the precip type members. Not one has the low coming NW of Cincinnati. The low either passes over us or SE of us. Even some members have that UKIE solution as well.

12Z Canadian has the low tracking thru Central KY into Eastern Ohio. Still too close for comfort of course but better then what the OP GFS is selling.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:28 am 12Z Canadian has the low tracking thru Central KY into Eastern Ohio. Still too close for comfort of course but better then what the OP GFS is selling.

Exactly Les and that is the snow-rain-snow ideal we have been talking about over the past day or so. More time on the front end snow for sure. Will the snow pack today have any influence and some I believe but if the system cranks up too much then it will overcome the southern end of the snow pack. What can happen though is the ground temps can stay colder somewhat longer and then we need to watch for some frz/rain. Hopefully by Monday we have a more confident forecast and no doubt there is going to be some winter weather with this system but what form and how much its just too early

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:33 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:28 am 12Z Canadian has the low tracking thru Central KY into Eastern Ohio. Still too close for comfort of course but better then what the OP GFS is selling.

Exactly Les and that is the snow-rain-snow ideal we have been talking about over the past day or so. More time on the front end snow for sure. Will the snow pack today have any influence and some I believe but if the system cranks up too much then it will overcome the southern end of the snow pack. What can happen though is the ground temps can stay colder somewhat longer and then we need to watch for some frz/rain. Hopefully by Monday we have a more confident forecast and no doubt there is going to be some winter weather with this system but what form and how much its just too early

I agree... it all depends on when this thing gets cranked up. It's really that simple. That is the main point to drive home with this system. I am liking the backside snow shower action on Thursday too! We have two periods of snow as it stands right now. Tues night into Wed morning then rain followed by back to snow sometime Wed night and especially on Thursday. That is kind of my early thought process subject to change. Could see some sleet and freezing rain too as you mentioned but as you know way too early to have any idea on where those transition zones will be.

Dumb question: With the over achieving snow here today, will that help to keep temperatures lower over the next few days? Which could have a hand in helping keep things colder for the next storm?

Just wishful thinking on my part, as we can never have enough snow!

snowlover wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 11:52 am Dumb question: With the over achieving snow here today, will that help to keep temperatures lower over the next few days? Which could have a hand in helping keep things colder for the next storm?

Just wishful thinking on my part, as we can never have enough snow!

Not a dumb question at all bro.

Fairfield