Absolute Vorticity

Flurries here in White Oak

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:20 am Folks I have lived here most of my life except a few year back and forth from South Carolina and this storm is one of the best I have ever seen. Folks probably are saying the old man is crazy and yes that may be true but this is a storm we may not forget for several years. Not sure what the top 5 snowstorms are for accumulation at CVG but my guess this could no doubt happen. Getting double digits snow totals is rare and Les you have been on the higher side with totals since yesterday and great call.

A few in the winters of 76-77 and 77-78, one on February 9-10 in 1998, and a few March heavy wet snow events are all that I can remember. Historical data will show how bad my dementia is.

I believe it was January of 1977 when we had several decent snows in a two week period and the snow kept piling up. Not sure what the biggest storm was but heck back then no social media and for the most part a weather report at 6pm and 11pm. Got a weather radio for Christmas 1975 and was a storm that was expected to bring several inches but ended up with less than an inch. Blizzard of 1978 still my second biggest weather event and the change from rain-frz/rain-sleet and heavy snow over a short period of time was wild and so many companies closed. 1st weather event is still the April 3rd 1974 tornado outbreak. Those two event remain in my head even with my dementia which is one where I can remember 50 years ago but have no ideal what I ate for dinner last night

All is still quiet down here in the lowest elevation of the tri-state. Seems like down in the bowl is the last to see the snow.

Yes the storm has begun. Snow is falling

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Mosaic radar for those not familiar with the COD site. You can select various regions to view.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Well, if its any indication of what's coming, looking at the NWS snowfall reports for central Kansas, depending upon location it looks like areas are getting that high end of 8-12 inches, with most reporting in the 4-6 and 6-8 ranges in that band where the 8-12 is showing. Don't know how accurate it is, but it looks promising for us.

This is the latest from the NAM. Just one model, nothing to base a forecast over, but that cutoff line on the north side is sharp.

Snow has started in Oxford

Here's the FV3. These totals include sleet, but it appears this model is showing most sleet totals have moved south.

Snow has started in Eastgate.

Hey hey hey!!! I'm ready for action and reporting for duty! Light snow started here about 9:45am in Burlington. I can report a dusting with everything covered lightly. Stickage started immediately. 23 / 18 currently with light snow.

Louisville getting a heavy band

Just left Mass. Light flakes in Batavia/Eastgate, light coat on roads already

The zoo announced they are closing today at 1 and will be closed tomorrow. Lots more church and business cancellations for today. If this arrives as its predicted, I'd say the school closings for tomorrow will start posting around 6-7pm Louisville zoo is closed for the day, and a few of the specialty schools around Louisville have announced closings for tomorrow.

Edit: Light flurries have arrived in Covington.

Nothing in Maineville yet

Nowcasting time folks...

SPC Mesopage late this morning shows a 1006 MB low over NE OK getting into ARK now. Pressure falls maps indicate a trek into Western TN / KY border area. If it moves due east from there, we're golden. We'll have to wait and see what happens with that as well as strength as the day wears on.

Critical thicknesses show snow of course for everybody. Your 1300 thickness line is still down around the KY / TN border. You'll want to monitor that line. If that blue 1300 thickness line is north of you, you're mixing. 925 and 850 MB temps plenty cold enough for snow at this time with any funny business again near the border.

700 / 850 lows are getting their acts together to the west and we'd like fort them to track just to our south which puts us in the heavier snow band. We will want to keep an eye on that as well today. MD also issued for 1" per hour snowfall rates to the SW and that will be for us later today into this evening.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0007.html

Finally.,.. and I can go on and on lol but we are seeing tremendous -EPV from us to the Plains as well as wonderful 700 MB frontogenic forcing. That is to our SW but also seeing a band of it right over the Metro. This is really looking good guys! In addition, a huge influx of moisture transport from the Gulf is feeding moisture into this thing. It overrides the baroclinic zone, or front to our south and we get dumped on. Pretty simple lol

Yes you can see by the radar a general west to east movement. As the storm gets going the heavier bands will move northeast. I will say that folks in southwest Indiana no doubt getting more snow than predicted and that is with the south shift. I love more snow to the southwest and though they should turn to sleet and frz/rain hopefully still a nice snow pack later this week which is key to the next system but will talk about on Tuesday

Snow will be picking up in intensity in the next couple of hours. Things should go downhill quickly after 12pm IMO so hopefully everyone is getting to where they need to be to ride it out.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:35 am Yes you can see by the radar a general west to east movement. As the storm gets going the heavier bands will move northeast. I will say that folks in southwest Indiana no doubt getting more snow than predicted and that is with the south shift. I love more snow to the southwest and though they should turn to sleet and frz/rain hopefully still a nice snow pack later this week which is key to the next system but will talk about on Tuesday

I also thinks this bodes well for us to stay on the snowier side longer too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:36 am Snow will be picking up in intensity in the next couple of hours. Things should go downhill quickly after 12pm IMO so hopefully everyone is getting to where they need to be to ride it out.

Les I am downstairs in the family room but may need to head up the stairs later for some food but besides that I have my laptop,tv with remote and sitting in a recliner. Beer just a few feet away and a big window behind me to watch the snow. Btw football,snowstorm and beer so I must be dreaming.

A foot on the 9Z SREF mean for CVG. Wowza! It has that period of light sleet overnight then back to snow on Monday. Love the idea. My call has been that precip type solution too since yesterday. Virtually all models are showing it now.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:38 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:36 am Snow will be picking up in intensity in the next couple of hours. Things should go downhill quickly after 12pm IMO so hopefully everyone is getting to where they need to be to ride it out.

Les I am downstairs in the family room but may need to head up the stairs later for some food but besides that I have my laptop,tv with remote and sitting in a recliner. Beer just a few feet away and a big window behind me to watch the snow. Btw football,snowstorm and beer so I must be dreaming.

And a Lions win tonight to top it off, eh?

Nothing here in Middletown yet.