Absolute Vorticity

Update from the boys. Enormous enhanced risk area! Looks like they are in agreement on an initial tornado threat but a quick transition to linear and more of a damaging wind threat to our west. I also like how they covered the local area, though I would trim the slight a bit further west (IN/OH border roughly). But overall good agreement! Of course any timing changes will allow for adjustment in risk placement.

Good Morning and a rather heavy frost this morning. I agree Trev and your thoughts seem good. I have more concern about the steady winds on Saturday as we could see a rather long period of winds between 30 and 40 with higher gusts over 50.

26 here this morning. Much colder then I expected. But we got rid of the clouds and had calm winds so there you go. Nice map above from the SPC. I'm in agreement with it and you can see how they also believe the storms will be weakening as they head in our direction. Not good frontal timing for us IMO. I like isolated severe possible late Fri / Fri night then falling temps and strong winds as Tim mentioned on Sat.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:25 am 26 here this morning. Much colder then I expected. But we got rid of the clouds and had calm winds so there you go. Nice map above from the SPC. I'm in agreement with it and you can see how they also believe the storms will be weakening as they head in our direction. Not good frontal timing for us IMO. I like isolated severe possible late Fri / Fri night then falling temps and strong winds as Tim mentioned on Sat.

Les I knew it was cold when the furnace kicked on this morning around 5am. Heading into next week and models are trying to figure out the timing of systems but it does look like we warm up and the humidity starts to creep in somewhat. That alone will aid in stronger and maybe severe storms sometime next week. Still need the correct set up but getting that increase in the humidity is one item that will help.

Looking around this morning and starting to see Canada get somewhat milder but still way below normal. The biggest departure is in south central part of the country and the reason is snow pack is well above normal for this time of year. Matter of fact one of those times where the south is colder than the north and of course that will change after the snow melts but just shows you having a very deep snow pack can alter temps big time.

Another item on Friday is how the earlier round of rain keeps us damp and cloudy most of the day or do we get a break in the later afternoon that will allow the sun to come out for a few hours. Not sure to tell you the truth as we are getting into a spring mode and the early spring sun can find it much easier to make an appearance even with heavier rains during the day. Just something to watch. Still the most likely area for severe is still to the west and most likely place for Tornado's will be in Iowa south into Arkansas before a nice line of storms forms which will head this way but should weaken unless that sun is able to make an appearance then that could keep the line somewhat stronger by a couple of hours

I love the discussion by the Des Moines NWS this morning. Not sure I have ever seen all these items placed in one post. Strong winds,elevated fire danger,severe thunderstorm/tornado's, accumulating snow/blowing snow.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:25 am 26 here this morning. Much colder then I expected. But we got rid of the clouds and had calm winds so there you go. Nice map above from the SPC. I'm in agreement with it and you can see how they also believe the storms will be weakening as they head in our direction. Not good frontal timing for us IMO. I like isolated severe possible late Fri / Fri night then falling temps and strong winds as Tim mentioned on Sat.

Les I knew it was cold when the furnace kicked on this morning around 5am. Heading into next week and models are trying to figure out the timing of systems but it does look like we warm up and the humidity starts to creep in somewhat. That alone will aid in stronger and maybe severe storms sometime next week. Still need the correct set up but getting that increase in the humidity is one item that will help.

Timing is everything as we both know but with more warmth and better dews with next week's system, I suspect our chances will be higher then this coming Friday's which has an unfavorable timing of the frontal zone coming in.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:16 am I love the discussion by the Des Moines NWS this morning. Not sure I have ever seen all these items placed in one post. Strong winds,elevated fire danger,severe thunderstorm/tornado's, accumulating snow/blowing snow.

All 4 seasons in one day! We've seen a few systems like that before.

Dropped to 30 here this morning and fog was quite dense for a time.

28 at CVG this morning, 26 here. We should be able to do it one more time tomorrow morning then we warm up and eventually, get wet and windy. Sunday morning if we lose the clouds and wind could also be frosty.

Had to be several record lows in the northern plains this morning. I saw -11 at Bismark. This goes to my previous post about south central Canada and how cold it is because of the snow pack.

Forecast looks wonderful for the Redlegs parade and then the 4:10 home opener vs the Pirates tomorrow as a high around 60 and a light breeze. Upper 40s at the start of the parade time.

Glad they're off Fri night given the linear activity for that evening. The gusty winds Sat could make for an interesting 2nd game of the series.

Currently 45 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 50 later.

I think most of Sat will be dry. The front / rain should have moved thru prior to sunrise IMO. Sat will be windy with falling temps behind the front.

57 here today and at CVG. Tomorrow looks decent after a chilly start.

18z HR NAM continues to show a rather marginal setup for the local area on Friday. Attached is SB CAPE valid 06z Sat (Friday night). You can see some ribbons/pockets of low-end CAPE across the area but that is about it. More evidence for a lower end threat here locally.

I’ve been watching next week for a few days now and I’m definitely more interested/concerned with that potential setup for severe weather in the Ohio Valley.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 29, 2023 5:58 pm I’ve been watching next week for a few days now and I’m definitely more interested/concerned with that potential setup for severe weather in the Ohio Valley.

See new April thread my man! We are way ahead of you! As for this week, it is a marginal / conditional risk. I am still going with my sloppy seconds call.

Overnight models continue to sing the same tune re: severe threat here for Friday night. NAM brings in the line around 2am so obviously bad timing there. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple thunderstorm warnings in the local area but that should be about it. Then high winds kick in Saturday morning into the afternoon with 40-50+ gusts expected.

Good Morning and 31 the low so far at my house. Great opening day weather and still love baseball. Concerning the upcoming system and the timing for this system does not give us the best shot of severe weather. Saying that and the time of year would not be surprised to see some sun later on Friday and that could help in the instability area. Models at one time had us in the rain most of the day but my guess they will trend towards some breaks in the clouds as time goes on and with the almost early April sun does not take much to ramp up the instability. Rainfall totals most likely in the .5-1 inch range but again if you happen to get under a heavier band of a thunderstorm the totals can go up slightly but nothing like last week.

Btw Wausau,Wi expecting another 4-7 inches of snow late on Friday. Northern plains and upper mid-west have had a wonderful year for snow and it continue into spring.

32 here this morning. Only 1 out of 4 Opening Day's are dry in Cincinnati. So a nice treat this year indeed for baseball. Trev has the forecast covered for Friday and Sat which ends March and beings April so I have nothing further to add.

Dipped to 29 in my hood....enough with winter already.....it's spring!

12z NAM is slightly beefier with the line in our area and about an hour quicker. But overall showing the same outcome. Isolated to scattered severe. Momentum transfer gust potential is very high with the line. 50-60kts. Wouldn’t be surprised if areas that see a more intense cell receive gusts up to 70mph, especially in our Indiana counties.

I checked the NAM soundings. I'm not very impressed. Bad timing since it's coming overnight Friday.