Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:50 am Another nice run from the UKIE. It's a little weaker and even more SE then the 0Z run but the best snows are right up the OH River. 2nd nice run in a row from the UKIE. Interesting...

Always been a fan of the UKIE.

12Z Euro on the clock now and look at how this thing really digs down into Mexico. I wonder if this run will come in further SE too?

12Z Euro coming in weaker with this system and the low track still is not quite where we want it. Still going to have some rain and mixing issues. Checked DAY and it still looks like snow and sleet to me. Still looking like the best area for snows are IND thru ILN's Northern and Western counties up thru NW Ohio, Southern Mich.

12Z EPS is SE of its 6Z run and well SE of the Operational Euro. On the mean, the low tracks into Eastern KY into Eastern Ohio. 850 MB temps are cold enough for frozen precip NW of I-71 with mixing and / or rain SE of I-71.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:19 pm 12Z EPS is SE of its 6Z run and well SE of the Operational Euro. On the mean, the low tracks into Eastern KY into Eastern Ohio. 850 MB temps are cold enough for frozen precip NW of I-71 with mixing and / or rain SE of I-71.


sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.png

Great map Les. Watch that high over southeast Canada If that continues to weaken and move further northeast the system should probably stay south of us locally. How far south is not known at this time. Going to be a bigger influx of moisture with this system but also milder air. This far out a Snow-Rain-Snow is about all you can forecast.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:19 pm 12Z EPS is SE of its 6Z run and well SE of the Operational Euro. On the mean, the low tracks into Eastern KY into Eastern Ohio. 850 MB temps are cold enough for frozen precip NW of I-71 with mixing and / or rain SE of I-71.


sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.png

Great map Les. Watch that high over southeast Canada If that continues to weaken and move further northeast the system should probably stay south of us locally. How far south is not known at this time. Going to be a bigger influx of moisture with this system but also milder air. This far out a Snow-Rain-Snow is about all you can forecast.

That's pretty much my call for us. Snow then rain then back to snow. I-70 Crew and especially back across IND country stands the best chance at remaining mainly snow / sleet. This is of course subject to change.

18Z NAM has next week's system coming into view. A bit SE of the 12Z run. So close guys... so darn close!

Love what the Nam is showing with the low staying further south and still not gaining much strength. Yes I know its the Nam in hour 84 but other models today have trended further south and a slower time to strengthen the storm.

Will be back late and probably at halftime of the first game. Go Jags!!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:46 pm Love what the Nam is showing with the low staying further south and still not gaining much strength. Yes I know its the Nam in hour 84 but other models today have trended further south and a slower time to strengthen the storm.

Yes Sir! That is so critical as we've discussed. We should get some sampling of the wave on the 0Z runs tonight. SPC meso page has the low center just off the coast of Seattle / BC. Much more sampling tomorrow of course but a bit of it for sure tonight.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:51 pm Will be back late and probably at halftime of the first game. Go Jags!!!

I'd love to see them knock off Maholmes!

18Z RGEM beginning to see the system now as well. Fantasy Range for this model (like the NAM) but here you go:

18Z GFS tracks the low right over us so snow to rain then back to snow looks good. We get a decent front end thump using CVG as an example. We get 0.30-0.40" as snow before the changeover. We only get up into the 36-37 degree range for the cold rain part of the storm. Then back to snow after the low passes with another 0.10-0.15" that falls as snow. Not bad! For the I-70 Crew using DAY, mainly snow and sleet with perhaps a touch of rain. Def an impactful system up that way. We just need it a tick further to the SE like we saw on the UKMET and we're in! Def still time for change with this system for sure.

The Euro continues to be much warmer in the extended range and it lost that Friday arctic front with more snow. The GFS has shown a much colder pattern developing behind the big system for next week. 18Z GFS still has the arctic front on Friday with a decent band of snow associated with it.

18Z GEFS SLP Cluster.


Individual members have the heavy snow band just NW of us or on top of us. Nice!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:35 pm The Euro continues to be much warmer in the extended range and it lost that Friday arctic front with more snow. The GFS has shown a much colder pattern developing behind the big system for next week. 18Z GFS still has the arctic front on Friday with a decent band of snow associated with it.

I disagree with the Euro on this one even though it has been leading the way in the last few weeks.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:35 pm The Euro continues to be much warmer in the extended range and it lost that Friday arctic front with more snow. The GFS has shown a much colder pattern developing behind the big system for next week. 18Z GFS still has the arctic front on Friday with a decent band of snow associated with it.

I disagree with the Euro on this one even though it has been leading the way in the last few weeks.

Tim, at this time, the Euro and EPS are warmer. GFS, GEFS, CMC, GEPS all look much colder! Last few GEFS runs bury us in snow the next couple of weeks.

18Z Euro ending at 90 hours is a tick NW of the 12Z Euro for Wednesday's system.

Saw the difference in the longer term with the gfs is the coldest with the Euro the warmest. The mjo is showing phase 3 in both models that I look at and that really makes sense with the current pattern. The difference is what happens next and the gfs is following the one that shows it staying in phase 3 and my guess the Euro is one showing heading to phase 4. The mjo forecasts have been off this year and Bgoney has done a great job how this has happened. I do believe we have moved past that and hopefully getting more help in forecasts with the mjo projections. Either way its going to be stormy over the next few weeks and lets hope we are shoveling and not swimming.

Great post Tim! I'm really rooting for the last few GEFS runs I've seen out to 2 weeks. 18Z run included. Probably overdone but even with half of the snow they are showing, we'd break out the shovels a time or two. We'll see... it can go either way at this early stage of the game. What will tell part of the story is how the mid week system behaves for next week. A very positive sign would be if we can score something with that one.

I would probably lean more to the EURO side but will be a tough call the next 2 weeks. after that long range experts are showing a torch return for February so looks like we have a chance to score the next 10 days before the west starts getting trough after trough and southeast ridge comes back

Here's the 0Z NAM at the end of its run for next week. With the low in Western KY, the snow to rain to snow call is good.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:46 pm Here's the 0Z NAM at the end of its run for next week. With the low in Western KY, the snow to rain to snow call is good.


0ZNAM.png

I agree Les and that has been the early call by both of us. Just give me a 50-75 mile further southeast path and we are in business. Wish we had colder air involved early but its still seasonal so snow is possible and you just need the perfect track. BTW sitting at 27 degrees

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:49 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:46 pm Here's the 0Z NAM at the end of its run for next week. With the low in Western KY, the snow to rain to snow call is good.


0ZNAM.png

I agree Les and that has been the early call by both of us. Just give me a 50-75 mile further southeast path and we are in business. Wish we had colder air involved early but its still seasonal so snow is possible and you just need the perfect track. BTW sitting at 27 degrees

I'm in 100% agreement. Will we get that SE shift we need or will it stay the same or tick back NW? Overnight and tomorrow's model runs will be very interesting for sure.

We got around 3 inches so far in Dillsboro In