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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:29 am
by Phr0z3n
Somehow I squeeze out 3.5 inches in the 12z Hrrr. I was hoping to get a break on this one. Lake effect has made my nights very short
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:35 am
by tpweather
Snow coming down in Louisville and though light every flake is sticking and roads a mess already. I would expect locally by 10am near the I-275 area snow should start and then this afternoon into the evening. Not paying to much to models at this point and observations and radar are key.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:42 am
by Seindiana
Light snow started in Madison, IN about 10 mins ago. Roads becoming covered in Louisville, KY.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:47 am
by tpweather
Somewhere northeast of here later today the dry air will fight with warmer moist air and still concern about the Columbus area. North of Indy a big cutoff as well with snow totals. Later this afternoon and evening the heaviest of precip expected and you can get thunderstorms to the south and this as I have mentioned before can be good or bad for snow totals. Those storm can send tons of moisture northward and you can sometimes get that 1-2 inches an hour for a few hours. On the other hand if the storms are more west to east it can cut down the totals. I don't see any data that shows a 200 mile area of storms so believe that thunderstorms will only help with this system.
Models and again will watch but something you may want to watch is a model showing a truly heavy band of precip and many times this tends to be a period of sleet. Saying that with the amount of cold air around I am leaning more towards heavy snow. Will watch this carefully and Louisville is one area I will watch all day to see when they change over to something besides snow. If they change earlier then we need to watch but if they are still seeings snow say at 7pm then no doubt the snow totals will be on the higher side.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:56 am
by mainevilleweather
Still seeing a lot of dry air in these high res models. That is a concern...
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:59 am
by Bgoney
HrNam has a mix along river and NK in the 9-10pm range
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:00 am
by alexdever73
12z nam very nice back end snows!!!!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:01 am
by tpweather
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:56 am
Still seeing a lot of dry air in these high res models. That is a concern...
North of cincy proper plenty of dry air but what I have seen to the south is the dry air is getting replace rather nicely and that is a good sign. Yes a cutoff somewhere and it takes awhile longer to get snow to fall but it will happen we just don't know exact placement. Jim Cantore is in Kansas City and the only time I watch the weather channel is during a hurricane of big winter storm. Thank God they named the storm and I believe they said Blair and just heard another met from them is heading to Cincinnati.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:03 am
by dce
Indianapolis is now reporting light snow. That bodes will fit the northern solutions if you ask me. Maybe the dry air isn't winning out as much. We will see as the next couple of hours roll on.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:04 am
by tpweather
Jim saw thunder and lightning in Kansas City and love the excitement and though the weather channel has changed over the years Jim is still great and has the kid like excitement
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:05 am
by tpweather
Wow the weather channel has 12-18 inches for us locally
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:08 am
by alexdever73
Backend snows could really pile up with ratios 15-1 and wind! Nam has a nice 6 hrs of light to moderate snowfall
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:10 am
by jjfight
TWC said they will have live reports from Cincinnati this afternoon.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:17 am
by Trevor
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:18 am
by Bgoney
12z Hres Nam total qpf
IMG_2966.jpeg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:20 am
by tpweather
Folks I have lived here most of my life except a few year back and forth from South Carolina and this storm is one of the best I have ever seen. Folks probably are saying the old man is crazy and yes that may be true but this is a storm we may not forget for several years. Not sure what the top 5 snowstorms are for accumulation at CVG but my guess this could no doubt happen. Getting double digits snow totals is rare and Les you have been on the higher side with totals since yesterday and great call.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:26 am
by tpweather
So for folks just getting on the forum the storm has shifted just a tad southward but the precip totals are still over an inch for folks in Cincinnati and southward but still in the 0.75-1 inch north of Cincinnati. Les who has been on the higher totals and yes I must agree with him. 6-10 was my call for days but I have seen with reports to the west of us this storm has more precip than I even thought and the sleet part of the storm may be less than I thought. Again bust can happen with models and that is because Mother Nature will determine the final outcome but hopefully everybody is safe and my wife went to church this morning and one last trip to Kroger's and believe we have enough food for several weeks and beer we may need to do a midnight run lol
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:26 am
by Bgoney
12z hrrr total qpf . Big difference for the I70 crew compared to Nam
IMG_2967.jpeg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:28 am
by Trevor
HRRR wants to bring in a quarter inch of ZR in Cincinnati tonight before we go back to snow in the morning. Ooof that'd be rough.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:32 am
by airwolf76
BAM is doing a live update . looks like 6-10" on the front end till about 11 pm then fr rain. sleet for 6 hours an then 3-6" on the back end . they have Cincy at 12-15 inches
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:35 am
by Bgoney
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:28 am
HRRR wants to bring in a quarter inch of ZR in Cincinnati tonight before we go back to snow in the morning. Ooof that'd be rough.
That would mean the sleet zone would be further north for a period also. Plenty of moving parts tbd
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:38 am
by Josh351m
Getting light snow now out in Dillsboro
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:41 am
by kywthrluvr
Light snow in Florence!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:45 am
by young pup
tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 8:47 am
Somewhere northeast of here later today the dry air will fight with warmer moist air and still concern about the Columbus area. North of Indy a big cutoff as well with snow totals. Later this afternoon and evening the heaviest of precip expected and you can get thunderstorms to the south and this as I have mentioned before can be good or bad for snow totals. Those storm can send tons of moisture northward and you can sometimes get that 1-2 inches an hour for a few hours. On the other hand if the storms are more west to east it can cut down the totals. I don't see any data that shows a 200 mile area of storms so believe that thunderstorms will only help with this system.
Models and again will watch but something you may want to watch is a model showing a truly heavy band of precip and many times this tends to be a period of sleet. Saying that with the amount of cold air around I am leaning more towards heavy snow. Will watch this carefully and Louisville is one area I will watch all day to see when they change over to something besides snow. If they change earlier then we need to watch but if they are still seeings snow say at 7pm then no doubt the snow totals will be on the higher side.
I'm concerned about cmh too. To me it seems like the models are just in agreement for up here. I find that crazy.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:47 am
by jjfight
Was just out "pre-treating" the driveway and sidewalks and there was some light snow on the west side.
