Absolute Vorticity

If the current pattern continues Tim, I think severe wx events will be on the rise for the country including the OV. Could be a nice April and May period this year. -PNA with storms continuing to eject out of the West and are forced to cut via the SE ridge. Plus Gulf is wide open for good moisture return. Localized flooding also could become an issue due to the active pattern, which IMO shows no signs of letting up.

Sun was out for a bit. Skies are dark again with another band of showers set to move thru and dampen the ground again.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 8:25 am If the current pattern continues Tim, I think severe wx events will be on the rise for the country including the OV. Could be a nice April and May period this year. -PNA with storms continuing to eject out of the West and are forced to cut via the SE ridge. Plus Gulf is wide open for good moisture return. Localized flooding also could become an issue due to the active pattern, which IMO shows no signs of letting up.

Great post and I agree. SPC also agrees....could be a decent outbreak esp west of us on Friday.

Been kind of a strange morning. Sunny, then a passing shower. Sunny, then a passing shower. Now it is back to being sunny again. Temp is back up to 50 now. We should be done now precip wise until clouds build back in this afternoon with some drizzle possible. Then maybe some isolated showers tomorrow afternoon per BG's video. Then we relax until Fri / Sat for the most part around here locally.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:45 am Been kind of a strange morning. Sunny, then a passing shower. Sunny, then a passing shower. Now it is back to being sunny again. Temp is back up to 50 now. We should be done now precip wise until clouds build back in this afternoon with some drizzle possible. Then maybe some isolated showers tomorrow afternoon per BG's video. Then we relax until Fri / Sat for the most part around here locally.

And like this past Sat, windy, too, this coming Sat with 40 to 50 mph gusts. **SMH**

Could make for an interesting Redlegs 2nd game of the season vs the Pirates.

My gauge picked up .30" from Sun night / predawn Mon.

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged for around 32 Tues morning then 48 later in the day.

Good Morning and nice and crisp though some clouds have kept temps up at CVG. Maybe a sprinkle later today at best. Wednesday and Thursday look nice though Wednesday night could end up giving us a nice frost once again. The system for the end of the week and timing is still up in the air and this could determine if we get any severe weather. Looks like a rather large area to the south and west of us will have severe weather but what happens when it moves north and east. For us locally not the perfect set up for severe weather as that will be to the west but need to watch as always. Rainfall totals is tricky imo because the storms to the south may form and keep some of the rain at bay. Saying that we still need to watch out for a decent rain and once again after the front moves through you guessed it very windy once again.

The one thing over the past decade at least is we seem to have wind on a more regular basis. No stats to back it up but it seems that is the case. During the summers though over the past decade the amount of storms seem less compared to growing up in the 60's and 70's. Maybe because AC was for the wealthy and we just had the windows open all the time and we noticed the storms more back than. Sure somewhere stats are kept on these items.

Good morning all! Mid to upper 30s down this way due to some extra clouds. Otherwise, some sun this morning mixed in. Tim has the current forecast looking good, but I will add that the potential for a hard freeze is there with lows in the 20s Thurs morning. Tonight, lows will be cold enough for a light frost, should we lose the clouds and wind but confidence is not as high there. LOU has restarted their frost / freeze program I believe. Not sure if ILN has yet or not. Should be getting close I would say.

Definitely watching Friday. Possible tornado outbreak west of us. Thankfully the tornado ingredients aren’t that high in our region due to a lack of backing winds/directional shear. That was the first thing I noticed this morning when checking models before work. So damaging winds would be our main threat with isolated quick spin-ups along the line being a smaller secondary threat.

Due to timing our overall severe threat is lesser than areas west. But if timing changes, our threat may go up.

Based on all of that I think we are looking at a marginal to slight event locally, best chance being western posters with a decrease as one goes east.

Sounds like our usual "sloppy seconds" there Trev. SPC has a 15% risk for us, 30% to the West. St. Louis looks to be in the cross hairs on this one.

We may have another system to kick off our new April thread too. 0Z Euro looked potent off to the West the evening of 4/4. We'll see what the timing looks like as we get closer, but we should spike into the 70s and have more warmth and juicer dews to work with vs the system coming in for this week.

Great posts this morning. Dipped to 33 here in my hood. Yes it is finally that time of year - severe weather season is definitely upon us!! Getting into the daily threat pattern across the country now as you can see in this graphic. For Friday - definitely favor areas to our west and south, and Les I agree it looks like a leftover event for us as is typically the case. Tornado season thus far has been quite impressive across the south - do we get a break in April or will things continue to ramp up? Seems like every year I hear 2011 comparisons mentioned, but that was a once in generation type year. Unfortunately all it takes is one EF4 or 5 to ruin someone's lives.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:37 am We may have another system to kick off our new April thread too. 0Z Euro looked potent off to the West the evening of 4/4. We'll see what the timing looks like as we get closer, but we should spike into the 70s and have more warmth and juicer dews to work with vs the system coming in for this week.

Though the system this week has a really decent chance of severe weather especially to the west but I believe next weeks system looks even more powerful and classic blizzard in the northern plains and severe threat and heavy rains for us. I keep bringing this up but still expecting a massive flooding situation on the Mississippi River this spring. So much snow to melt plus we area starting to see folks in the central and even southern plains get into some decent rains which will just add to the rise. Good news for the southern plains and getting some rainfall next week is good before they become dry and hot for the summer

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:37 am We may have another system to kick off our new April thread too. 0Z Euro looked potent off to the West the evening of 4/4. We'll see what the timing looks like as we get closer, but we should spike into the 70s and have more warmth and juicer dews to work with vs the system coming in for this week.

Though the system this week has a really decent chance of severe weather especially to the west but I believe next weeks system looks even more powerful and classic blizzard in the northern plains and severe threat and heavy rains for us. I keep bringing this up but still expecting a massive flooding situation on the Mississippi River this spring. So much snow to melt plus we area starting to see folks in the central and even southern plains get into some decent rains which will just add to the rise. Good news for the southern plains and getting some rainfall next week is good before they become dry and hot for the summer

Tim / Mike... that was exactly my point. I think next weeks threat is looking better and the longer term IMO keeps the hits a-comin'! This spring, we may finally see some classic severe weather around here. So far, severe wx has definitely been not too far away.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:55 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:37 am We may have another system to kick off our new April thread too. 0Z Euro looked potent off to the West the evening of 4/4. We'll see what the timing looks like as we get closer, but we should spike into the 70s and have more warmth and juicer dews to work with vs the system coming in for this week.

Though the system this week has a really decent chance of severe weather especially to the west but I believe next weeks system looks even more powerful and classic blizzard in the northern plains and severe threat and heavy rains for us. I keep bringing this up but still expecting a massive flooding situation on the Mississippi River this spring. So much snow to melt plus we area starting to see folks in the central and even southern plains get into some decent rains which will just add to the rise. Good news for the southern plains and getting some rainfall next week is good before they become dry and hot for the summer

Tim / Mike... that was exactly my point. I think next weeks threat is looking better and the longer term IMO keeps the hits a-comin'! This spring, we may finally see some classic severe weather around here. So far, severe wx has definitely been not too far away.

Could not agree more guys. Always several items to have a above normal severe season. One item that is huge this season is the cold remaining in the northern plains and upper mid-west. Systems are able to grab hold of that cold plus the gom is wide open for business as the waters down there are above normal. Getting those two are enough for strong storms and then if you get dry air from the southwest to get involved tornado's become a bigger issue. Many seasons we see predictions for above normal severe season and its seldom happens but this year the players on the table are lining up and imo April at least looks very busy in terms of severe weather.

I am in agreement with those expecting a substantial severe weather season, including us here in the Ohio Valley.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:47 am Sounds like our usual "sloppy seconds" there Trev. SPC has a 15% risk for us, 30% to the West. St. Louis looks to be in the cross hairs on this one.

I have a couple of cousins and their families who reside in the O'Fallon area 'burb of St. Louis.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:37 am We may have another system to kick off our new April thread too. 0Z Euro looked potent off to the West the evening of 4/4. We'll see what the timing looks like as we get closer, but we should spike into the 70s and have more warmth and juicer dews to work with vs the system coming in for this week.

Though the system this week has a really decent chance of severe weather especially to the west but I believe next weeks system looks even more powerful and classic blizzard in the northern plains and severe threat and heavy rains for us. I keep bringing this up but still expecting a massive flooding situation on the Mississippi River this spring. So much snow to melt plus we area starting to see folks in the central and even southern plains get into some decent rains which will just add to the rise. Good news for the southern plains and getting some rainfall next week is good before they become dry and hot for the summer

Prayerfully won't be nearly as bad as what happened in 1993, bro.

NAM has the line approaching western Indiana by 7pm Friday so again, timing is in our side for keeping the severe threat in check unlike areas west. Still think a marginal/slight risk event is in store for us with the main threat being spotty damaging thunderstorm gusts. Maybe a spin up as well. Then you guessed it, more wind advisories likely on Saturday behind the front

STP for Friday. While high, the values aren’t super high and that’s thanks to a lack of directional shear even for areas to our west. Not a whole lot of backing winds. That leads me to believe that while there will likely be tornadoes to our west, the storms are going to congeal and line up pretty quick which should hopefully keep the number of long track tornadoes on the lower side. I expect widespread damaging winds to be the bigger threat west of us versus a true tornado outbreak.

@Les can you tell that this heat miser/severe weather fanatic is waking up from his slumber??

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:50 pm @Les can you tell that this heat miser/severe weather fanatic is waking up from his slumber??

You haven't had too much rest due to the mild winter. Meanwhile, I can't get enough rest.

00z NAM continues to illustrate my thoughts for Friday. Initial tornadic supercell threat for portions of MO, IA, and IL after convective initiation for a bit before quickly becoming linear with more of a damaging wind mode with embedded spin ups. This run also continues to show the line weakening as it gets into the local area. Based on poor timing among other things, I see no reason to change my marginal/slight criteria (isolated to scattered severe) expectations for the tri-state area, best chance for western posters. Non-thunderstorm winds on Saturday will be the bigger story here with this storm. 40-50+ gusts likely.