Absolute Vorticity

This whole evolution seems faster to me. Look at the 32 degree line now. Indy will be snowing before you know it. Is this faster then guidance to any of you? What do you all think, seriously?

Yeah baby time to rock n roll in the woodpile! Was able to fill the deer feeder. Got to keep em fat for next year.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:21 pm This whole evolution seems faster to me. Look at the 32 degree line now. Indy will be snowing before you know it. Is this faster then guidance to any of you? What do you all think, seriously?


fztp.gif

Looks about like what the NAM has honestly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:21 pm This whole evolution seems faster to me. Look at the 32 degree line now. Indy will be snowing before you know it. Is this faster then guidance to any of you? What do you all think, seriously?

You are correct Les - take the 12z HRRR for example. It had Indy at 38 at 3pm EST and it is 35 so a 3 degree error. Bloomington was 2 degrees too warm at the 12z forecast for 3pm EST.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:19 pm I am loving these trends guys....whos with me??

Great trends Mike. The nws at Indy talks about the layers above cooling off quicker so they expect a little uptick in snow this afternoon and early evening plus for Thursday they mention snow totals may be just a tad high in the northern areas and changeover in their southern zones may come a little quicker. Also eastern Kentucky nws mentioned how they may need to extend weather advisories a little further south. These are no doubt the trends today and less ice and more snow is what I am rooting for at this stage of the game

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:24 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:21 pm This whole evolution seems faster to me. Look at the 32 degree line now. Indy will be snowing before you know it. Is this faster then guidance to any of you? What do you all think, seriously?


fztp.gif

Looks about like what the NAM has honestly.

That's cool, just wanted to check to be honest.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:21 pm This whole evolution seems faster to me. Look at the 32 degree line now. Indy will be snowing before you know it. Is this faster then guidance to any of you? What do you all think, seriously?

You are correct Les - take the 12z HRRR for example. It had Indy at 38 at 3pm EST and it is 35 so a 3 degree error. Bloomington was 2 degrees too warm at the 12z forecast for 3pm EST.

sfct.us_state_il_in.png

I thought so Mike... thanks for confirming. 2-3 degrees makes a big difference at the surface (as well as upstairs).

If those thermals are off, we are heavy snow the closer we are to the sleet correct? So if it gets colder quicker wouldn't wouldn't the heaviest snow be near the metro rather than I70?

Also Muncie IN - 37 now vs 40 forecast. So looks like the cold air is moving faster than progged at 12z....at least a little bit.

I'm hoping that these trends continue to translate into our area. It would mean less frz rain for everybody, less sleet, and in some cases more snow as well. We need to take it hour by hour folks and nowcast this system.

We've gained 25 new members in the past week. Thanks to all and welcome to our forum! We love having you all here to enjoy this storm, with us! Please continue to ask questions, post your obs and talk models and data with us if you would like also. We don't bite... not too hard!

Where does the front stall Thursday morning is so key to the forecast because it will and that is when you get stuck in whatever precip mode you are in for several hours. Then you get the slow transition as the afternoon wears on. Tons of nowcasting to be had.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:38 pm We've gained 25 new members in the past week. Thanks to all and welcome to our forum! We love having you all here to enjoy this storm, with us! Please continue to ask questions, post your obs and talk models and data with us if you would like also. We don't bite... not too hard!

Great to hear but don't believe Les I still have wound marks from when I joined.

I'm seeing a lot of whiney and complaining from S Mich and N Ohio posters on American Wx about not getting as much snow as expected with this first wave so far and also southern modal trends esp with wave 2. All of that means wonderful news for us down here.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:40 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:38 pm We've gained 25 new members in the past week. Thanks to all and welcome to our forum! We love having you all here to enjoy this storm, with us! Please continue to ask questions, post your obs and talk models and data with us if you would like also. We don't bite... not too hard!

Great to hear but don't believe Les I still have wound marks from when I joined.

We should charge beer for admission!

0.89" rain total so far and 42 degrees.

CVG had 0.40" at 3pm and 43 degrees.

Can't wait to see the ILN discussion - ought to be a beauty!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:41 pm I'm seeing a lot of whiney and complaining from S Mich and N Ohio posters on American Wx about not getting as much snow as expected with this first wave so far and also southern modal trends esp with wave 2. All of that means wonderful news for us down here.

We also know that Jim C. was traveling south of Toledo on I-75 and heading south so that should tell you what they are thinking about what may happen with this system.

27 over NW AR and 65 over the Southern part of the state. Love those temp contrasts to get the moisture flowing.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:47 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:41 pm I'm seeing a lot of whiney and complaining from S Mich and N Ohio posters on American Wx about not getting as much snow as expected with this first wave so far and also southern modal trends esp with wave 2. All of that means wonderful news for us down here.

We also know that Jim C. was traveling south of Toledo on I-75 and heading south so that should tell you what they are thinking about what may happen with this system.

Keep him out of Cincy so he doesn't jinx us lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:41 pm I'm seeing a lot of whiney and complaining from S Mich and N Ohio posters on American Wx about not getting as much snow as expected with this first wave so far and also southern modal trends esp with wave 2. All of that means wonderful news for us down here.

Lol Les , when have those people on AMerican ever not B&M'd

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:45 pm Can't wait to see the ILN discussion - ought to be a beauty!

They may have one of the hardest tasks with this system. Going to fun to hear their thoughts on this system

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:41 pm I'm seeing a lot of whiney and complaining from S Mich and N Ohio posters on American Wx about not getting as much snow as expected with this first wave so far and also southern modal trends esp with wave 2. All of that means wonderful news for us down here.

Lol Les , when have those people on AMerican ever not B&M'd

I know, but it's like the models. Keep an eye on what's going on upstream can be good trends for us downstream.

Ryan wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:51 am You can see real "on the ground" conditions of Indiana Snow plows from INDOT's website: https://511in.org/. In the layers box you can select "Plow Cameras", then for each set of images you can look through timestamps.

They drop regular pictures throughout their routes. You can already see differences in conditions from NW to SW.

That is so cool!

Xavier is doing their first Remote due to Weather Day tomorrow. I'm a little miffed we lost snow days as a perk but am glad we at least have the option to switch to remote instead of taking a PTO day or trying to drive in.